This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of a proposed mandatory earnings-related fully-funded pension scheme, named as the second pillar, on the accumulation of pension-funds assets and possibly on the capital market development in Slovenia. First, the dynamic simulation model is developed to estimate the accumulated pension-funds assets as a percentage of GDP in each future time period under the assumption of certainty. It is followed by the assumptions and estimates of the data used for independent variables and the results obtained by implementing the model for the period of 25 years. Relaxing the assumption of certainty, the paper proceeds with estimations of accuracy of the results with three methods. It is concluded, that the estimated level of accumulated pension-funds assets in GDP 25 years after the introduction of the reform will be approximately 40% and comparable to the level in countries with developed capital markets. Also, the accuracy of the estimate is surprisingly good. It is therefore expected that besides other effects, the introduction of this pension scheme would have an important impact on the development of the Slovenian capital market.
Coleman, H. W. and Steele, W. G. Jr. (1989): Experimentations and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Experimentations and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers, ().
Experimentations and Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers)| false
Feldstein, M. (1977): Social Security and Private Saving: International Evidence in an Extended Life Cycle Model. In: Feldstein, M. and Inman, R. (eds): The Economics of Public Services. New York: Macmillan.
Social Security and Private Saving: International Evidence in an Extended Life Cycle Model, ().
Social Security and Private Saving: International Evidence in an Extended Life Cycle Model)| false
Arrau, P. and Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (1993): Macroeconomic and Intergenerational Welfare Effects of a Transition from Pay-As-You-Go to Fully-Funded Pension Systems. Paper presented at the XIIth Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Tucuman, 17-20 August.
'Macroeconomic and Intergenerational Welfare Effects of a Transition from Pay-As-You-Go to Fully-Funded Pension Systems' , , .
Macroeconomic and Intergenerational Welfare Effects of a Transition from Pay-As-You-Go to Fully-Funded Pension Systems)| false
Munnell, A. H. and Yohn, F. O. (1992): What is the Impact of Pensions on Saving? In: Bodie, Z. and Munnell, A. H. (eds): Pension Policy: An International Perspective. Washington: US Government Printing Office.
Regional discounts on country of the funding agency
World Bank Lower-middle-income economies: 50%
World Bank Low-income economies: 100%
Editorial Board / Advisory Board members: 50%
Corresponding authors, affiliated to an EISZ member institution subscribing to the journal package of Akadémiai Kiadó: 100%
Online subsscription: 588 EUR / 732 USD
Print + online subscription: 688 EUR / 860 USD
Online subscribers are entitled access to all back issues published by Akadémiai Kiadó for each title for the duration of the subscription, as well as Online First content for the subscribed content.
Purchase per Title
Individual articles are sold on the displayed price.
2021 Volume 71
Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9.
H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.