Income disparities among hungarian micro-regions: The mover-stayer model

K. Major

doi:10.1556/aoecon.58.2008.2.1

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Acta Oeconomica

Volume/Issue:: Volume 58: Issue 2

Income disparities among hungarian micro-regions: The mover-stayer model

Author:

K. Major

K. Major Corvinus University of Budapest Department of Macroeconomics 8 Fővám tér H-1093 Budapest Hungary

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Pages:: 127–156

Online Publication Date:: 09 Jul 2008

Publication Date:: 01 Jun 2008

Article Category:: Journal Article

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.58.2008.2.1

Keywords:: convergence; geographical region; Mover-Stayer model; stationarity; C14; O52; R11; R15

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It is known that the simple Markov chain model overestimates the long run horizon mobility of the income distribution process. Dissolving the homogeneity assumption of the Markov model may lead to better forecasts. One generalisation of the Markov model, the Mover-Stayer model assumes heterogenous population: some units are moving according to a common Markov chain, but there are some (unknown) units that are not moving at all. They are called stayers.Based on the Frydman (1984) methodology if we compute both the Markov and Mover-Stayer models for Hungarian micro-regions income data, we find that the Mover-Stayer model fits better the regional relative income data than the simple Markov model. Using likelihood ratio test statistics we show that the difference is highly significant. The method is also applied for spatially conditioned data. The results show that the high persistence of relative income positions is a remarkable feature of the Hungarian economy in 1990–2003 both on a country-wide scale and local level. We also demonstrate that forecasts made on a less reliant model might lead to very ambiguous results.

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Acta Oeconomica Periodical of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences

Print ISSN:: 0001-6373

Online ISSN:: 1588-2659

Associate Editors

Péter Benczúr, Joint Joint Research Center, European Commission
Dóra Benedek, International Monetary Fund
Balázs Égert, OECD
Dániel Prinz, World Bank
Rok Spruk, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business, Slovenia

Editorial Board

Anders Åslund, Georgetown University and Advisory Council of CASE, USA
István Benczes, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
Fabrizio Coricelli, University of Siena, Italy
László Csaba, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary and Central European University, Austria
Beáta Farkas, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged, Hungary
Péter Halmai, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, and National University of Public Service, Hungary
Martin Kahanec, Central European University, Austria
Michael Landesmann, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Austria
Péter Mihályi, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
Debora Revoltella, European Investment Bank

Corvinus University of Budapest
Department of Economics
Fővám tér 8 Budapest, H-1093, Hungary
E-mail: judit.kalman@uni-corvinus.hu

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Acta Oeconomica
Language	English
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