View More View Less
  • 1 Technical University of Košice (TUKE), Košice, Slovakia
Restricted access

Purchase article

USD  $25.00

1 year subscription (Individual Only)

USD  $700.00

The objective of the paper is to create a composite leading indicator (CLI) for monitoring and predicting Hungarian business cycles. We compare the existing CLI applied by the OECD and Eurostat with our own CLI. According to our findings, our CLI forecasts the evolution of a referential series more precisely than the CLIs developed by the OECD and Eurostat. Nevertheless, from our point of view, the application of all existing CLIs at the same time can be appropriate. Consequently, the number of false signals should be reduced. The CLIs allow us to receive the first rough preliminary estimations of an economic cycle, in our case, the Hungarian one.

  • Beneš, J.N’Diaye, P. (2004): A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to the Czech Republic. IMF Working Paper, 04(45): 130.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bezděk, J.Dybczak, K.Krejdl, A. (2003): Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance – OECD and ESCB Methods. Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 53(11–12): 477509.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boschan, C.Ebanks, W. W. (1978): The Phase Average Trend: A New Way of Measuring Economic Growth, Proceeding of the Business and Economic Statistics Section. Washinghton, D.C.:American Statistical Association.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burns, A. F.Mitchell, W. C. (1946): Measuring Business Cycles. Cambridge: NBER.

  • Conference Board (2001): Business Cycle Indicator Handbook. Economic Research. The Conference Board.

  • Czesaný, S. (2006): Hospodářsky cyklus (Business Cycle). Praha: Linde.

  • Czesaný, S.Jeřábková, Z. (2009): Metóda konstrukce kompozitních indikátorú hospodářského cyklu pro českou ekonomiku (Methodology of the Composite Indicators Construction of the Czech Republic Business Cycle). Statistika, 1:21

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Economic Cycle Research Institute (2011): Turning Points & Leading Indicators. Available at http://www.businesscycle.com/business_cycles/turning_points_leading_indicators.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Everts, M. P. (2006): Measuring Business Cycles. Berlin: Verlag im Internet GmbH.

  • Fabiani, S.Mestre, R. (2000): Alternative Measures of the NAIRU in the Euro Area: Estimates and Assessment. ECB Working Paper, 17: 147.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gyomai, G.Guedette, E. (2012): OECD System of Composite Leading Indicator. Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Győrffy, D. (2009): Structural Change without Trust: Reform Cycles in Hungary and Slovakia. Acta Oeconomica, 59(2): 147177.

  • Hodric, R. J.Prescott, E. C. (1997): Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 29(1): 116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kerényi, Á. (2015): Budapest Economic Forum about the Hungarian Monetary Policy. Conference Report. Acta Oeconomica, 65(1): 143152.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Macháčková, L.Czesaný, S.Sedláček, P. (2007): Monitorování a analýza hospodářského cyklu (Business Cycle Monitoring and Analysis). Praha: Český statistický úrad.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marek, L. (2007): Statistika pro economy (Statistics for Economists). Praha: Professional Publishing.

  • Mester, I. T. (2007): Indicator Approach to Business Cycle Analysis. Fascicle of Management andTechnological Engineering, 6(16): 22502256.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mihályi, P. (1988): Cycles or Shocks: East European Investments, 1950–1985. Economics of Planning, 22(1–2): 4156.

  • Moore, G. H. (1961): Business Cycle Indicators, Contributions to the Analysis of Current Business Conditions. Princeton University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nardo, M.Saisana, M. (2005): Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide. Paris: OECD Statistics Working Papers, 3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NBS (2006): Krátkodobá prognóza ekonomického rastu (Short-Term Economic Growth Prediction). Available at http://www.nbs.sk/_img/Documents/PUBLIK/MU/06_01-2.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nilsson, R. (2000): Confidence Indicators and Composite Indicators. Paris: OECD.

  • Nilsson, R.Gyomai, G. (2007): Cycle Extraction: A Comparison of The PAT Method, the Hodrick-Prescott and Christiano-Fitzgerald Filters. Paris: OECD.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nilsson, R.Gyomai, G. (2011): Cycle Extraction: A Comparison of the Phase Average Trend Method, the Hodrick-Prescott and Christiano-Fitzgerald Filters. Paris: OECD Statistics WorkingPapers, 4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • OECD (1993): Cyclical Indicators and Business Tendency Survey. Paris.

  • OECD (1998): OECD Composite Leading Indicators: A Tool For Short-Term Analysis. Paris.

  • OECD (2004): The OECD–JRC Handbook on Practices for Developing Composite Indicators. Paris: OECD Committee on Statistics.

  • OECD (2008): Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide. Paris.

  • OECD (2012a): Glossary for OECD Composite Leading Indicators. Paris.

  • OECD (2012b): Main Economic Indicator: Composite Leading Indicators For Countries. Paris.

  • OECD (2013): Composite Leading Indicator for Hungary. Paris.

  • Ozyildirim, A.Schaitkin, B.Zarnowitz, V. (2009): Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators. Luxembourg:5th Eurostat Colloqium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Saltelli, A. (2007): Composite Indicators between Analysis and Advocacy. Social Indicators Research, 81: 6577.

  • Schilcht, E. (2005): Estimating the Smoothing Parameter in the So-Called Hodrick-Prescott Filter. Journal of the Japanese Statistical Society, 35(1): 99119.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sullivan, A.Sheffrin, S. M. (2003): Economics: Principles in Action. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall.

  • Tkáčová, A. (2012): Kompozitný predstihový indikátor hospodárskeho cyklu českej ekonomiky (Composite Leading Indicator of Czech Business Cycle). Politická ekonomie, 60: 590613.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trimbur, T. M. (2006): Detrending Economic Time Series: A Bayesian Generalization of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. Journal of Forecasting, 4: 247273.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tuveri, J. P. (1997): National Accounts Central and Eastern Europe. Paris.

  • Zimková, E.Barochovský, J. (2007): Odhad potenciálného produktu a produkčnej medzery v slovenských podmienkach (Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap in Slovak Conditions). Politická ekonomie, 4: 473489.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
Submit Your Manuscript
 
The author instruction is available in PDF.
Please, download the file from HERE.

 

The description of the refereeing procedure is available in PDF.
Please, download the file from HERE.

 

 

Senior editors

Editor(s)-in-Chief: Prof. Dr. Mihályi, Péter

Editor(s): Ványai, Judit

Editorial Board

  • Ádám Török (Chairman) / University of Pannonia; Budapest University of Technology and Economics
  • Edina Berlinger / Corvinus University of Budapest, Department of Finance
  • Péter Halmai / Budapest University of Technology and Economics; National University of Public Service
  • István Kónya / Institute of Economics Centre for Regional and Economic Studies, University of Pécs
  • János Köllő / Institute of Economics Centre for Regional and Economic Studies
  • István Magas / Corvinus University of Budapest, Department of World Economy; University of Physical Education, Department. of Sports and Decision Sciences
 

Advisory Board

  • Ǻslund, Anders, Institute of International Economics, Washington (USA)
  • Kolodko, Grzegorz, Kozminski University, Warsaw (Poland)
  • Mau, Vladimir, Academy of National Economy (Russia)
  • Messerlin, Patrick A, Groupe d’Economie Mondiale (France)
  • Saul Estrin, London School of Economics (UK)
  • Wagener, Hans-Jürgen, Europa Universität Viadrina (Germany)

Corvinus University of Budapest
Department of Economics
Fővám tér 8 Budapest, H-1093, Hungary

Indexing and Abstracting Services:

  • EconLit
  • Elsevier GEO Abstracts
  • GEOBASE
  • International Bibliographies IBZ and IBR
  • JEL
  • Referativnyi Zhurnal
  • RePEc
  • SCOPUS
  • Social Science Citation Index
  • Index Copernicus

 

2020  
Total Cites 275
WoS
Journal
Impact Factor
0,875
Rank by Economics 325/377 (Q4)
Impact Factor  
Impact Factor 0,534
without
Journal Self Cites
5 Year 0,500
Impact Factor
Journal  0,38
Citation Indicator  
Rank by Journal  Economics 347/549 (Q3)
Citation Indicator   
Citable 37
Items
Total 37
Articles
Total 0
Reviews
Scimago 13
H-index
Scimago 0,292
Journal Rank
Scimago Economics and Econometrics Q3
Quartile Score  
Scopus 225/166=1,4
Scite Score  
Scopus Economics and Econometrics 392/661 (Q3)
Scite Score Rank  
Scopus 0,668
SNIP  
Days from  289
sumbission  
to acceptance  
Days from  447
acceptance  
to publication  

2019  
Total Cites
WoS
212
Impact Factor 0,914
Impact Factor
without
Journal Self Cites
0,728
5 Year
Impact Factor
0,650
Immediacy
Index
0,156
Citable
Items
45
Total
Articles
45
Total
Reviews
0
Cited
Half-Life
3,9
Citing
Half-Life
9,5
Eigenfactor
Score
0,00015
Article Influence
Score
0,052
% Articles
in
Citable Items
100,00
Normalized
Eigenfactor
0,01891
Average
IF
Percentile
28,437
Scimago
H-index
12
Scimago
Journal Rank
0,439
Scopus
Scite Score
214/165=1,3
Scopus
Scite Score Rank
Economics and Econometrics 355/637 (Q3)
Scopus
SNIP
0,989

 

Acta Oeconomica
Publication Model Hybrid
Submission Fee none
Article Processing Charge 900 EUR/article
Printed Color Illustrations 40 EUR (or 10 000 HUF) + VAT / piece
Regional discounts on country of the funding agency World Bank Lower-middle-income economies: 50%
World Bank Low-income economies: 100%
Further Discounts Editorial Board / Advisory Board members: 50%
Corresponding authors, affiliated to an EISZ member institution subscribing to the journal package of Akadémiai Kiadó: 100%
Subscription fee 2021 Online subsscription: 588 EUR / 732 USD
Print + online subscription: 688 EUR / 860 USD
Subscription fee 2022 Online subsscription: 600 EUR / 750 USD
Print + online subscription: 704 EUR / 880 USD
Subscription Information Online subscribers are entitled access to all back issues published by Akadémiai Kiadó for each title for the duration of the subscription, as well as Online First content for the subscribed content.
Purchase per Title Individual articles are sold on the displayed price.

Acta Oeconomica
Language English
Size B5
Year of
Foundation
1966
Publication
Programme
2021 Volume 71
Volumes
per Year
1
Issues
per Year
4
Founder Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
Founder's
Address
H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9.
Publisher Akadémiai Kiadó
Publisher's
Address
H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.
Responsible
Publisher
Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó
ISSN 0001-6373 (Print)
ISSN 1588-2659 (Online)