Acta Oeconomica
Volume/Issue:
Volume 67: Issue 4
Post-communist countries of the EU and the euro: Dynamic linkages between exchange rates
Authors:
Nikolaos Stoupos University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece

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and
Apostolos Kiohos University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, Greece

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Pages:
511–538
Online Publication Date:
Dec 2017
Publication Date:
01 Dec 2017
Article Category:
Research Article
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2017.67.4.2
Keywords:
volatility; exchange rates; ECM-APARCH; linkages; euro zone enlargement; post-communist economies; rolling regression; EU unification; C13; F3; F31; G15; G17; G32
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The sovereign debt crisis of 2010 in the euro area significantly decelerated the monetary integration of the EU. The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether five post-communist member states of the EU are mature enough to adopt the euro. We used nominal exchange rates in the error correction model with asymmetric power ARCH (ECM-APARCH). Our results highlight that EU membership positively increased the impact of the euro on the currency of each of these countries in the short-run. In contrast, the long-term effect of the euro on each currency is negative for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Croatia. Wholly different results were obtained for Poland and Romania. The APARCH model showed that the negative responses of the euro had a greater or neutral effect on the conditional variance of each currency instead of the positive responses. The debt crisis of the euro area had no impact on the dynamic linkages between the currencies. Our research concludes that Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are not ready to join the euro area in the near future. On the other hand, the currencies of Poland and Romania are already aligned with the fluctuations of the euro.

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Cover Acta Oeconomica
Acta Oeconomica Periodical of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Print ISSN:
0001-6373
Online ISSN:
1588-2659

Senior editors

Editors-in-Chief: István P. Székely, Dóra Győrffy

Editor(s): Judit Kálmán

Associate Editors

  • Péter Benczúr, Joint Joint Research Center, European Commission
  • Dóra Benedek, International Monetary Fund
  • Balázs Égert, OECD
  • Dániel Prinz, World Bank
  • Rok Spruk, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business, Slovenia

Editorial Board

  • Anders Åslund, Georgetown University and Advisory Council of CASE, USA
  • István Benczes, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary 
  • Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
  • Fabrizio Coricelli, University of Siena, Italy
  • László Csaba, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary and Central European University, Austria
  • Beáta Farkas, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged, Hungary
  • Péter Halmai, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, and National University of Public Service, Hungary
  • Martin Kahanec, Central European University, Austria
  • Michael Landesmann, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Austria
  • Péter Mihályi, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
  • Debora Revoltella, European Investment Bank

Corvinus University of Budapest
Department of Economics
Fővám tér 8 Budapest, H-1093, Hungary
E-mail: judit.kalman@uni-corvinus.hu

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Acta Oeconomica
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Acta Oeconomica
Language English
Size B5
Year of
Foundation		 1966
Volumes
per Year		 1
Issues
per Year		 4
Founder Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
Founder's
Address		 H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9.
Publisher Akadémiai Kiadó
Publisher's
Address		 H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.
Responsible
Publisher		 Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó
ISSN 0001-6373 (Print)
ISSN 1588-2659 (Online)

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