This paper presents a case-study to demonstrate the calculation methods of growth contributions using structural decompositions of input-output tables and their Hungarian applications. Although the required data are available with a considerable time-lag, results show that taking backward linkages through demand for inputs and value chain multipliers into account can significantly alter the picture on the growth effects of industries and final demand categories by the conventional approach based on quarterly GDP calculations. This can be instructive for analysts and policy- and decision-makers not only in Hungary, but also in other countries. The study was performed by using public macroeconomic and sectoral data obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office.
Ambargis, Z. O. – Mead, C. I. (2012): RIMS II. An Essential Tool for Regional Developers and Planners. Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce.
Anwar, K. – Szőkéné Boros, Zs. (2010): A bruttó hazai termék (GDP) növekedéséhez való hozzájárulás (Contributions to the GDP Growth). Statisztikai Szemle, 88(10–11): 1123–1131.
Boda, Gy. – Révész T. (1990): Analysis of Changes in Hungary’s Energy Demand. Presentation at the XIII. International Conference on Problems of Model Building and Forecasting in Economics, Models and Forecasts. 5–7 September 1990, Berlin.
Boda, Gy. – Koósné Balsay, É. – Molnár, I. (1989): Az ágazati kapcsolatok mérlegének összeállítása Magyarországon (Assembling Input-Output Tables in Hungary). Statisztikai Szemle, 6: 585–598.
Dietzenbacher, E. – Hoekstra, R. (2002): The RAS Structural Decomposition Approach. In: Hewings, G. J. D. – Sonis, M. – Boyce, D. (eds): Trade, Networks and Hierarchies. Modelling, Regional and Interregional Economies. Springer, pp. 179–199.
Dietzenbacher, E. – Lahr, M. L. – Los, B. (2004): The Decline in Labor Compensation’s Share of GDP: A Structural Decomposition Analysis for the US, 1982–1997. In: Dietzenbacher, E. – Lahr, M. L. (eds): Wassily Leontief and Input-Output Economics. Cambridge University Press.
Dietzenbacher, E. – Los, B. (1998): Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity. Economic Systems Research, 10(4): 307–324.
Dietzenbacher, E. – Los, B. (2000): Structural Decomposition Analyses with Dependent Determinants. Economic Systems Research, 12(4): 497–514.
Eurostat (2008): Eurostat Manual of Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables.
Fernández-Vázquez E. – Los, B. – Ramos-Carvajal, C. (2008): Using Additional Information in Structural Decomposition Analysis: The Path-Based Approach. Economic Systems Research, 20(4): 367–394.
Hoekstra, R. – Helm, R. van der (2010): Attributing GDP Growth of the Euro Area to Final Demand Categories. Paper prepared for the 18th International Input-Output Conference, 2010 June 20–25, Sydney, Australia.
Jackson, R. – Murray, A. (2004): Alternative Input-Output Matrix Updating Formulations. Economic Systems Research, 16(2): 135–148.
HCSO (2016a): Stadat 3.1.19. Contribution to GDP Growth (Production Approach), and Stadat 3.1.20. Contribution to GDP Growth (Expenditure Approach), Http://Www.Ksh.Hu/Stadat_Infra_3_1
HCSO (2016b): National Accounts, GDP Methodology, Http://Www.Ksh.Hu/Docs/Eng/Modsz/Modsz31.Html
HCSO (2016c): Dissemination Database / National Accounts, GDP / Input-Output Tables, Supply and Use Tables, Supply Table at Basic Prices, Including the Transformation into Purchasers’ Prices (Technical Code Pp1101), Use Table at Purchasers’ Prices (Pp1102), and Use Table for Domestic Output at Basic Prices (Pp1104)
Kokkinen, A. – Wouters, H. (2016): GDP Growth Estimates for Europe at 30 Days – Is That Feasible? Presentation at the Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders. 2016 October 20–21, Budapest.
Koppány, K. (2016): Növekedési hozzájárulások számítása input-output táblák strukturális felbontása alapján (Calculation of Growth Contributions Using Structural Decomposition of Input- Output Tables). Statisztikai Szemle, 94(8–9): 881–914.
Lahr, M. – Mesnard, L. (2004): Biproportional Techniques in Input-Output Analysis: Table Updating and Structural Analysis. Economic Systems Research, 16(2): 115–134.
Lenzen, M. – Moran, D. D. – Geschke, A. – Kanemoto, K. (2014): A Non-Sign-Preseving RAS Variant. Economic Systems Research, 26(2): 197–208.
Miller, R. E. – Blair, P. D. (2009): Input-Output Analysis. Foundations and Extensions. 2th edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Nyitrai, F. – Forgon, M. (2004): A gazdaság szerkezete az ágazati kapcsolati mérlegek alapján (The Structure of the Economy Based on the Input-Output Tables). Központi Statisztikai Hivatal, Budapest.
Oosterhaven, J. – Linden, J. A. van der (1997): European Technology, Trade and Income Changes for 1975–85: An Intercountry Input-Output Decomposition. Economic Systems Research, 9(4): 393–412.
Pei, J. – Oosterhaven J. – Dietzenbacher, E. (2012): How Much Do Exports Contribute to China’s Income Growth? Economic Systems Research, 24(3): 275–297.
Révész, T. (2001): Költségvetési és környezetpolitikák elemzése általános egyensúlyi modellekben (An Analysis of Fiscal and Environmental Policies using General Equilibrium Models). Phd Thesis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
Révész, T. (2013): Makromodellezési esettanulmányok a többszektoros alkalmazott makrogazdasági modellek köréből (Macromodelling Case Studies from the Scope of Multisectoral Macroeconomic Models). Lecture Notes. Corvinus University of Budapest.
Révész, T. – Ragalie, S. (1996): Modelling Energy Policy Issues for Hungary and Romania. Romanian Economic Research Observer, 1: 1–30.
Rormose, P. (2011): Structural Decomposition Analysis: Sense and Sensitivity. Paper prepared for the 19th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques. 13–17 June 2011, Alexandria, USA.
Rose, A. – Casler, S. (1996): Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal. Economic Systems Research, 8(1): 33–62.
Skolka, J. (1989): Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis for Austria. Journal of Policy Modelling, 11: 45–66.
Zalai, E. (2012): Matematikai közgazdaságtan II. Többszektoros modellek és makrogazdasági elemzések (Mathematical Economics II. Multisectoral Models and Macroeconomic Analyses). Budapest: Akadémiai Kiadó.