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  • 1 Former Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington, DC, USA
  • | 2 Honorary President, International Institute of Public Finance, Munich, Germany
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Abstract

Why did China grow so fast in the past four decades? What were the main factors? Important ones were: attitude of government; opening to the world; role of culture; exploitation of technological gap; role of foreign trained students; and role of government in the creation of modern infrastructure. These factors are likely to play a much smaller role in the future while several negative factors –populism, trade wars, environmental obstacles, aging of the population, authoritarianism and others are likely to lead to significantly lower growth rates.

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