The research examines the sustainability of trade flows for two European post-communist economies: Serbia and Romania. We analysed two nonlinear forms of the relationship between exports and imports that cannot be explained by frequently applied linear model specifications. Newly developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach revealed the asymmetric and nonlinear long-run equilibrium between Serbian exports and imports. Nonlinearity tests indicated and the SETAR model specification confirmed threshold nonlinearity form in the Serbian trade flows pattern. Serbian trade flows still approach its sustainable equilibrium but the development pattern is promising. The results for Romania revealed another nonlinear form of the relationship between exports and imports, indicating a dependent cointegration. The paper provides robust results and supports the hypothesis that the relationship between exports and imports can be nonlinear and symmetric.
Al-Khulaifi, A. S. (2013): Exports and Imports in Qatar: Evidence from Cointegration and Error Correction Model. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(9): 1122–1133.
Antwi-Boateng, C. (2015): Is Ghana Achieving Sustainable Trade Balance in the Participation of International Trade? Time Series Assessment for Ghana. Available from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67268/1/MPRA_paper_67268.pdf(accessed: March 8, 2018).
Aristovnik, A. (2008): Short-term Determinants of Current Account Deficits: Evidence from Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Eastern European Economics, 46 (1): 24–42.
Arize, A. C. (2002): Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests of Cointegration and Structural Breaks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 11: 101–115.
Bakker, B. B. – Gulde, A. M. (2010): The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies? IMF Working Paper, No. 10/130.
Boljanović, S. (2012): Sustainability Analysis of Serbia’s Current Account Deficit. Economic Annals, LVII(195): 139–171.
Chen, S. W. – Xie, Z. X. (2015): Testing for Current Account Sustainability under Assumptions of Smooth Break and Nonlinearity. International Review of Economics & Finance, 38: 142–156.
Đurović Todorović, J. – Đorđević, M. – Vuković, M. (2017): Fiscal Stress Analysis in the Republic of Serbia. Economic Themes, 55(1): 55–69.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989): A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57: 357–384.
Hansen, B. E. – Seo, B. (2002): Testing for Two-regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-Correction Models. Journal of Econometrics, 110(2): 293–318.
Hassan, G. M. – Holmes, M. J. (2017): Do Remittances Facilitate a Sustainable Current Account? World Economy, 39(11): 1834–1853.
Husted, S. (1992): The Emerging US Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74: 159–166.
Johansen, S. (1995): Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Keenan, D. M. (1985): A Tukey Non-Additivity Type Test for Time Series Nonlinearity. Biometrika, 72(1): 39–44.
Keskin, A. (2017): The Current Account Deficit Issues and its Financing Structure in Turkey: Analysis of the 1989–2015 Period. Amme Idaresi Dergisi, 50(3): 89–125.
Khadaroo, A. J. (2016): Current Account Deficit in Mauritius: Risks and Prospects. South African Journal of Economics, 84(1): 109–128. https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12102.
Kurtovic, S.– Halili, B. – Maxhuni, N. (2017): Bilateral Trade Elasticity of Serbia: Is There a J-Curve Effect? PSL Quarterly Review, 70(280): 185–210.
Malović, M. (2008): On Balance of Payments Crisis in Serbia: If it Ain’t Broken, why Fixing it might still be a Good Idea? Economic Analysis, 41(1–2): 25–47.
Obadić, A.– Globan, T. – Nadoveza, O. (2014): Contradicting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Role of Tax Revenues Composition. Panoeconomicus, 6: 653–667.
Pesaran, M. H.– Shin, Y. – Smith, R. J. (2001): Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616.
Pillay, S. (2014): The Long Run Relationship between Exports and Imports in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Social, Management, Economics and Business Engineering, 8(6): 1976–1979.
Shin, Y. – Yu, B. – Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2011): Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807745.
Shuaibu, M. – Oyinlola, M. A. (2017): An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria's Current Account Sustainability. Margin-Journal of Applied Economic Research, 11(1): 54–76.
Singh, T. (2015): Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in India: An Intertemporal Perspective. Applied Economics, 47(46): 4934–4951.
Tong, H. (1990): Nonlinear Time Series, a Dynamical System Approach .Oxford: Clarendon Press.
Topalli, N.– Dogan, I. (2016): The Structure and Sustainability of Current Account Deficit: Turkish Evidence from Regime Switching. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(4): 570–589.
Tsay, R. S. (1986): Nonlinearity Test for Time Series. Biometrika, 73(2): 461–466.
Tunay, K. B. (2017): Interaction of Macroeconomic Imbalances in Emerging Economies: The Case of Turkish Republics. Bilig, 83: 171–199.
Zakharova, D. V. (2008): One-Size-Fits-One: Tailor-Made Fiscal Responses to Capital Flows. IMF Working Paper, 08/269.
Zaman, G. – Georgescu, G. (2015): Romania’s External Debt Sustainability under Crisis Circumstances. Romanian Journal of Economics, 30(1): 5–38.
Zaman, G. (2014): Impact of Foreign Trade on Romania’s Economic Sustainability During the Pre- and Post-Accession Periods. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8: 747–754.
Zivot, E. – Andrews, D. W. K. (1992): Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3): 251–270.