Acta Oeconomica
Volume/Issue:
Volume 71: Issue 4
The determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey: Does terror-threat matter? A Markov Regime Switching-VAR approach
Authors:
Faik Bilgili Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Erciyes University, 38039, Kayseri, Turkey

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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4138-6897
,
Serap Çoban Department of Economics, Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli University, Turkey

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6622-0327
,
Cumali Marangoz Department of Business, Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Turkey

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0216-3490
,
Emre Bulut Department of Business, Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Turkey

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1468-2175
, and
Sevda Kuşkaya Justice Vocational College, Erciyes University, Turkey

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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4527-5713
Pages:
587–607
Online Publication Date:
08 Dec 2021
Publication Date:
08 Dec 2021
Article Category:
Research Article
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00041
Keywords:
tourism; terror; terrorism index; exchange rates; MS-VAR estimation; Turkey; government policy;
Restricted access

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of potential determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey through Markov Regime Switching-Vector Auto Regression (MS-VAR) estimations from 1999 to 2017 on monthly data. The determinants are income level, exchange rates and the threat of terror incidences. The terror variable, following the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2017 report, is calculated for Turkey by the author. This research has conducted two separate MS-VAR models to observe the relevant parameters’ signs of the demand for tourism function. Both MS-VAR models revealed that income level and exchange rates have positive influences on tourism while the terror threat has a negative impact on tourism in Turkey. Terror adversely affects the demand for tourism in the short-term in which terror has occurred in the nearest past (i.e., a month ago). The MS-VAR models also yield that a similar negative impact of terror on tourism activities does not appear over the longer periods.

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Cover Acta Oeconomica
Acta Oeconomica Periodical of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Print ISSN:
0001-6373
Online ISSN:
1588-2659

Senior editors

Editors-in-Chief: István P. Székely, Dóra Győrffy

Editor(s): Judit Ványai

Associate Editors

  • Péter Benczúr, Joint Joint Research Center, European Commission
  • Dóra Benedek, International Monetary Fund
  • Balázs Égert, OECD
  • Dániel Prinz, World Bank
  • Rok Spruk, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business, Slovenia

Editorial Board

  • Anders Åslund, Georgetown University and Advisory Council of CASE, USA
  • István Benczes, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary 
  • Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
  • Fabrizio Coricelli, University of Siena, Italy
  • László Csaba, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary and Central European University, Austria
  • Beáta Farkas, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged, Hungary
  • Péter Halmai, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, and National University of Public Service, Hungary
  • Martin Kahanec, Central European University, Austria
  • Michael Landesmann, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Austria
  • Péter Mihályi, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
  • Debora Revoltella, European Investment Bank

Corvinus University of Budapest
Department of Economics
Fővám tér 8 Budapest, H-1093, Hungary
E-mail: vanyai.judit@krtk.hu  

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Acta Oeconomica
Language English
Size B5
Year of
Foundation		 1966
Volumes
per Year		 1
Issues
per Year		 4
Founder Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
Founder's
Address		 H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9.
Publisher Akadémiai Kiadó
Publisher's
Address		 H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.
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Publisher		 Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó
ISSN 0001-6373 (Print)
ISSN 1588-2659 (Online)

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