Authors:
and
Steven Rosefielde
stevenr@email.uc.edu
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1722-7936
Steven Rosefielde
Department of Economics, University of North Carolina, Gardner Hall, Campus Box 3305, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3305, USA
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Michael Bernstam
Michael Bernstam
Hoover Institution, Stanford University, USA
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Abstract
The potency of economic sanctions imposed on nations depends on demand and supply adjustment possibilities. Adverse GDP impacts will be maximal when import, export, production, distribution and finance are inflexible (universal non-substitution). This paper elaborates these conditions, and quantifies the maximum GDP loss that Western sanctions could have inflicted on Russia in 2022–2023. It reports the World Bank's predictions, contrasts them with results and draws inferences about the efficiency of Russia's workably competitive markets. The paper shows that Russia's economic system exhibits moderate universal substitutability and is less vulnerable to punitive discipline than Western policymakers suppose. The likelihood that the Kremlin will restore Ukraine's territorial integrity, ceteris paribus, is correspondingly low. The authors also observe that unintended adverse side effects from sanctions and counter-sanctions were excessive because policymakers chose to maximize GDP-damage to Russia instead of optimizing Western and third-party net benefits. Given moderate substitutability, Western policymakers can switch to smart net benefit maximizing sanctions that enhance Western and third-party welfare without significantly bolstering Russia's military industrial productivity and war-waging capabilities by retaining embargoes on weapons, technology and critical components, while selectively softening other restrictions. Smart sanctions might facilitate a negotiated settlement of the Russo–Ukrainian war.
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Corvinus University of Budapest
Department of Economics
Fővám tér 8 Budapest, H-1093, Hungary
E-mail: judit.kalman@uni-corvinus.hu
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| 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Web of Science | |
| Journal Impact Factor | 0.7 |
| Rank by Impact Factor | Q3 (Economics) |
| Journal Citation Indicator | 0.23 |
| Scopus | |
| CiteScore | 1.4 |
| CiteScore rank | Q3 (Economics and Econometrics) |
| SNIP | 0.385 |
| Scimago | |
| SJR index | 0.218 |
| SJR Q rank | Q4 |
| Acta Oeconomica | |
|---|---|
| Publication Model | Hybrid |
| Submission Fee | none |
| Article Processing Charge | 900 EUR/article |
| Printed Color Illustrations | 40 EUR (or 10 000 HUF) + VAT / piece |
| Regional discounts on country of the funding agency | World Bank Lower-middle-income economies: 50% World Bank Low-income economies: 100% |
| Further Discounts | Editorial Board / Advisory Board members: 50% Corresponding authors, affiliated to an EISZ member institution subscribing to the journal package of Akadémiai Kiadó: 100% |
| Subscription fee 2025 | Online subsscription: 700 EUR / 768 USD Print + online subscription: 820 EUR / 900 USD |
| Subscription Information | Online subscribers are entitled access to all back issues published by Akadémiai Kiadó for each title for the duration of the subscription, as well as Online First content for the subscribed content. |
| Purchase per Title | Individual articles are sold on the displayed price. |
| Acta Oeconomica | |
|---|---|
| Language | English |
| Size | B5 |
| Year of Foundation |
1966 |
| Volumes per Year |
1 |
| Issues per Year |
4 |
| Founder | Magyar Tudományos Akadémia |
| Founder's Address |
H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9. |
| Publisher | Akadémiai Kiadó |
| Publisher's Address |
H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245. |
| Responsible Publisher |
Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó |
| ISSN | 0001-6373 (Print) |
| ISSN | 1588-2659 (Online) |
Monthly Content Usage
| Abstract Views | Full Text Views | PDF Downloads | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2024 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 2024 | 106 | 2 | 3 |
| Oct 2024 | 287 | 4 | 3 |
| Nov 2024 | 150 | 4 | 3 |
| Dec 2024 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 2025 | 93 | 5 | 9 |
| Feb 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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The system paradigm revisited
Clarification and additions in the light of experiences in the post-socialist region
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