Authors:
Marinko Skare Faculty of Economics and Tourism Dr. Mijo Mirkovic, Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Zagrebacka 30, 52100 Pula, Croatia
University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw, Poland

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Beata Gavurova Faculty of Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Czech Republic

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Andrea Tkacova Faculty of Economics, Technical University of Kosice, Slovakia

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Abstract

This research developed an analytical framework for industry-oriented leading cyclical indicators (CII), focusing on monitoring and forecasting economic cycles within the European Union (EU). Various methodologies for constructing these indicators were examined through an exhaustive sector analysis. A salient conclusion drawn is the non-feasibility of a one-size-fits-all composite leading indicator for all EU members. It underscores the imperative to tailor these indicators in congruence with the unique industrial characteristics of each country. The study provides empirical evidence that countries like Denmark, Germany, Austria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland and Sweden can benefit from high-caliber composite leading indicators tailored to their economies. Our analysis suggests that GDP is a more robust metric than the Industrial Production Index for predicting economic cycles for the EU countries.

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  • Skare, M.Gil-Alana, L. A.Claudio-Quiroga, G.Pržiklas Družeta, R. (2021): Income Inequality in China 1952-2017: Persistence and Main Determinants. Oeconomia Copernicana, 12(4): 863888. https://doi.org/10.24136/oc.2021.028.

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  • Skare, M.Franc-Dąbrowska, J.Cvek, D. (2023): Cointegration Analysis and VECM of FDI, Employment, Export and GDP in Croatia (2002-2017) with Particular Reference to the Global Crisis and Poor Macroeconomic Governance. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 15(4): 761783. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.033(Original work published December 20, 2020).

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  • Stjepanovic, S.Tomic, D.Skare, M. (2022): A New Database on Green GDP; 1970-2019: A Framework for Assessing the Green Economy. Oeconomia Copernicana, 13(4): 949975. https://doi.org/10.24136/oc.2022.027.

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  • Zalewski, K. (2009): Forecasting Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators – The Case of Poland. Ekonomia Journal, 24: 6169.

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  • Wang, X.Xu, Z.Wang, X.Skare, M. (2022): A Review of Inflation from 1906 to 2022: A Comprehensive Analysis of Inflation Studies from a Global Perspective. Oeconomia Copernicana, 13(3): 595631.

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Senior editors

Editors-in-Chief: István P. Székely, Dóra Győrffy

Editor(s): Judit Kálmán

Associate Editors

  • Péter Benczúr, Joint Joint Research Center, European Commission
  • Dóra Benedek, International Monetary Fund
  • Balázs Égert, OECD
  • Dániel Prinz, World Bank
  • Rok Spruk, University of Ljubljana, School of Economics and Business, Slovenia

Editorial Board

  • Anders Åslund, Georgetown University and Advisory Council of CASE, USA
  • István Benczes, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary 
  • Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland
  • Fabrizio Coricelli, University of Siena, Italy
  • László Csaba, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary and Central European University, Austria
  • Beáta Farkas, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Szeged, Hungary
  • Péter Halmai, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, and National University of Public Service, Hungary
  • Martin Kahanec, Central European University, Austria
  • Michael Landesmann, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Austria
  • Péter Mihályi, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
  • Debora Revoltella, European Investment Bank

Corvinus University of Budapest
Department of Economics
Fővám tér 8 Budapest, H-1093, Hungary
E-mail: judit.kalman@uni-corvinus.hu

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Acta Oeconomica
Language English
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1966
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Founder Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
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