Author: T Zsíros 1
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  • 1 Seismological Observatory, Geodetic and Geophysical Research Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences Meredek u. 18, H-1112 Budapest, Hungary
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The source parameters and dimensions of the tow strongest earthquakes (July 1, 1829, Io = VII-VIII EMS; October 15, 1834,  Io = IX EMS) in Érmellék area are estimated as follows  Date of the event     Focal depth     Magnitude    Rupture area          Max.                                                                                                       displacement July  01, 1829           21-33 km         5.5-5.7         33-55 km2        11-16 cm October 15, 1834     23-28 km         6.5-6.6        266-358 km2      74-90 cm  The average recurrence that we may expect an earthquake of M ≥ 0.7 every 1 year, an earthquake of M ≥ 2.9 every 10 years and an earthquake of M ≥ 5.0 every 100 years in this source zone. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.1-1.4 m/cm2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.3-7.4 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10 % chance of exceedance for an exposure time of 100 years in the area.

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