Authors:
H. Paudyal
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D. Shanker Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee Department of Earthquake Engineering Roorkee 247667 Uttaranchal India

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H. Singh Banaras Hindu University Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science Varanasi 221 005 India

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V. Singh Banaras Hindu University Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science Varanasi 221 005 India

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Time dependent seismicity investigation in six seismogenic sources of Nepal and its adjoining areas in the Central Himalaya reveal that there is intermediate time clustering of the moderate size shallow earthquake in each seismogenic source. The inter-event times, between the successive shallow mainshocks, of the magnitude equal to or larger than certain cut-off magnitudes for each of these sources are used for long-term earthquake hazard prediction corresponding to individual sources of the region. For the hazard estimation, the following relations have been established here as: log Tt = 0.46 Mmin +0.07 Mp +0.02 log m0 −2.38, and Mf = 0.78 Mmin −0.25 Mp −0.04 log m0 + 4.32, where Tt is the inter-event time measured in years; Mmin is the moment magnitude of the smallest mainshock considered; Mp is the magnitude of preceding main shock, Mf is the magnitude of the following mainshock and m0 is the moment rate in each source per year. The value of σ = 0.22 and multi-correlation coefficient, R = 0.62 for the first equation and σ = 0.30 and R = 0.59 for the second equation are estimated.Based on these relations and using the magnitude and time of occurrence of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, time dependent conditional probabilities of the next shallow main shocks during the next 10, 20 and 30 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks are forecast.

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Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica
Language English
Size B5
Year of
Foundation
2013
Volumes
per Year
1
Issues
per Year
4
Founder Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
Founder's
Address
H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9.
Publisher Akadémiai Kiadó Springer
Nature Switzerland AG
Publisher's
Address
H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.
CH-6330 Cham, Switzerland Gewerbestrasse 11.
Responsible
Publisher
Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó
ISSN 2213-5812 (Print)
ISSN 2213-5820 (Online)

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