National Institute of Science, Technology and Development Studies Scientometrics and Informetrics Group Dr. K. S. Krishnan Marg 110 012 New Delhi (India) Dr. K. S. Krishnan Marg 110 012 New Delhi (India)
The paper deals with the nature of growth models currently used in the literature for modeling the growth of publications.
It introduces briefly three growth models and explores the applicability of these models in the growth of world and Indian
physics literature. The analysis suggests that the growth of Indian physics literature follows a logistic model, while the
growth of world physics literature is explained by a combination of logistic and power models. The criteria for selection
of growth models based on the new growth rate functions suggested by Egghe and Ravichandra Rao are given. The methodology
suggested by Egghe and Ravichandra Rao is shown to work satisfactorily, except for longer time series growth data, when we
may have to restore to data splitting approach, if suggested by the plots of new growth rate functions. This approach helped
us to use a combination of two growth models instead of one, to explain the growth of world physics literature.