On Growth, Ageing, and Fractal Differentiation of Science

Anthony van Raan

doi:10.1023/a:1005647328460

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Scientometrics

Volume/Issue:: Volume 47: Issue 2

On Growth, Ageing, and Fractal Differentiation of Science

Author:

Anthony van Raan

Anthony van Raan University of Leiden Centre for Science and Technology Studies Leiden The Netherlands Leiden The Netherlands

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Pages:: 347–362

Online Publication Date:: 25 Oct 2004

Publication Date:: 26 Feb 2000

Article Category:: Research Article

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1005647328460

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Abstract

On the basis of the measured time-dependent distribution of references in recent scientific publications, we formulate a novel model on the ageing of recent scientific literature. The framework of this model is given by a basic set of mathematical expressions that allows us to understand and describe large-scale growth and ageing processes in science over a long period of time. In addition, a further and striking consequence results in a self- consistent way from our model. After the Scientific Revolution in 16th century Europe, the 'Scientific Evolution' begins, and the driving processes growth and ageing unavoidably lead - just as in our biological evolution - to a fractal differentiation of science. A fractal structure means a system build up with sub-systems characterised by a power-law size distribution. Such a distribution implies that there is no preference of size or scale. Often this phenomenon is regarded as a fingerprint of self-organisation. These findings are in agreement with earlier empirical findings concerning the clustering of scientific literature. Our observations reinforce the idea of science as a complex, largely self-organising 'cognitive eco-system'. They also refute Kuhn's paradigm model of scientific development.

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Scientometrics

Print ISSN:: 0138-9130

Online ISSN:: 1588-2861

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Scientometrics
Language	English
Size	B5
Year of Foundation	1978
Volumes per Year	1
Issues per Year	12
Founder	Akadémiai Kiadó
Founder's Address	H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.
Publisher	Akadémiai Kiadó Springer Nature Switzerland AG
Publisher's Address	H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245. CH-6330 Cham, Switzerland Gewerbestrasse 11.
Responsible Publisher	Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó
ISSN	0138-9130 (Print)
ISSN	1588-2861 (Online)