Scientometrics
Volume/Issue:
Volume 91: Issue 1
Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)
Authors: Antonio Fernández-Cano 1 , Manuel Torralbo 2 , and Mónica Vallejo 3
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  • 1 Department of Research Methods in Education, University of Granada, Campus de Cartuja, Granada 18071, Spain
  • 2 Department of Mathematics, University of Córdoba, Calle Alfonso XIII, 13, Córdoba 14071, Spain ma1torom@uco.es
  • 3 Department of Didactics, University of Murcia, Campus de Espinardo, Murcia 28071, Spain monicavr@um.es
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x
Page Count:
15–36
Publication Date:
01 Apr 2012
Online Publication Date:
15 Dec 2011
Article Category:
Research Article
Restricted access

Abstract

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price's predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.

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Cover Scientometrics
Scientometrics
Print ISSN:
0138-9130
Online ISSN:
1588-2861
Keywords:
Time series; Scientific growth; Doctoral theses; Exponential smoothing; ARIMA models; Spain; Modulatory variable

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