A set of coupled logistic growth equations is used to simulate the temporal replacement of vegetation (species or groups). Simulation results approximately reproduce two time series of 415 to 585 years obtained from field investigations in the Swiss National Park (SNP). Although the shape and the fit of the simulated curves are convincing, the assumption that all species must be present at the beginning of the simulation and also the absence of movement in space are not realistic. To overcome this, the model is extended to include space and is used for simulating the succession in an abandoned pasture of the SNP. As long as only vegetation change in all individual quadrats is simulated separately, vegetation boundaries remain unchanged over the simulated period of 400 years. When species are allowed to move between quadrats, the spatial pattern changes over the simulated time, and field data can be taken as boundary conditions to realistically simulate change. It is concluded that spatial dynamics must be taken into account to model long-term succession.
Achermann, G. 2000. The influence of red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) upon a subalpine grassland ecosystem in the Swiss National Park. Diss ETH No. 13479. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich. 93 pp.
The influence of red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) upon a subalpine grassland ecosystem in the Swiss National Park , () 93 .
Achermann, G., M. Schütz, B.O. Krüsi and O. Wildi. 2000. Tall-herb communities in the Swiss National Park: Long-term development of the vegetation. Nationalparkforschung in der Schweiz 89: 67-88.
'Tall-herb communities in the Swiss National Park: Long-term development of the vegetation ' () 89 Nationalparkforschung in der Schweiz : 67 -88 .
Austin, M. P. 1990. Community theory and competition in vegetation. In: J.B. Grace and D. Tilman (eds.): Perspectives on Plant Competition; Academic Press, Inc.; San Diego, pp. 215-238.
Community theory and competition in vegetation , () 215 -238 .
Balzter, H. 2000. Markov chain models for vegetation dynamics. Ecol. Model. 126: 139-154.
'Markov chain models for vegetation dynamics ' () 126 Ecol. Model. : 139 -154 .
Usher, M. B. 1992. Statistical models of succession. In: D. C. Glenn-Lewin, R. K. Peet and T. Veblen (eds.), Plant Succession: Theory and Prediction. Chapman and Hall, London, pp. 215-248.
Statistical models of succession , () 215 -248 .
Van Andel, J., J. P. Bakker, and A. P. Grootjans. 1993. Mechanisms of vegetation succession: a review of concepts and perspectives. Acta Bot. Neerl. 42: 413-433.
'Mechanisms of vegetation succession: a review of concepts and perspectives ' () 42 Acta Bot. Neerl. : 413 -433 .
Van Hulst, R. 1992. From population dynamics to community dynamics: modelling succession as a species replacement process. In: D. C. Glenn-Lewin, R. K. Peet and T. Veblen (eds.), Plant Succession: Theory and Prediction. Chapman and Hall, London, pp. 188-214.
From population dynamics to community dynamics: modelling succession as a species replacement process , () 188 -214 .
Whittaker, R. H. 1953. A consideration of climax theory: the climax as a population and pattern. Ecol. Monog. 23: 41-78.
'A consideration of climax theory: the climax as a population and pattern ' () 23 Ecol. Monog. : 41 -78 .
Wildi, O. and M. Schütz. 2000. Reconstruction of a long-term recovery process from pasture to forest. Community Ecol. 1: 25-32.
'Reconstruction of a long-term recovery process from pasture to forest ' () 1 Community Ecol. : 25 -32 .
Wissel, C. 1989. Theoretische Ökologie. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Theoretische Ökologie. , ().
Camenisch, M. and M. Schütz. 2000. Temporal and spatial variability of the vegetation in a four-year exclosure experiment in Val Trupchun (Swiss National Park). In: M. Schütz, B. O. Krüsi, and P. J. Edwards, (eds.), Succession Research in the Swiss National Park. Nat. park-Forsch Schweiz 89: 165-188.
Temporal and spatial variability of the vegetation in a four-year exclosure experiment in Val Trupchun (Swiss National Park) , () 165 -188 .
Cattelino P. J., I. R. Noble, R. O. Slatyer and S. R. Kessel. 1979. Predicting the multiple pathways of plant succession. Environ. Manage. 3: 41-50.
'Predicting the multiple pathways of plant succession ' () 3 Environ. Manage. : 41 -50 .
Foster, B. L. and D. Tilman. 2000. Dynamic and static views of succession: Testing the descriptive power of the chronosequence approach. Plant Ecol. 146: 1-10.
'Dynamic and static views of succession: Testing the descriptive power of the chronosequence approach ' () 146 Plant Ecol. : 1 -10 .
Gauch, G. H. and R. H. Whittaker. 1972. Coenocline simulation. Ecology 53: 446-541.
'Coenocline simulation ' () 53 Ecology : 446 -541 .
Glenn-Lewin, D.C. and E. Van der Maarel. 1992. Patterns and processes of vegetation dynamics. In: D.C. Glenn-Lewin, R.K. Peet and T.T. Veblen (eds.), Plant Succession: Theory and Prediction. Chapman and Hall, London, pp. 11-59.
Patterns and processes of vegetation dynamics , () 11 -59 .
Grime, J. P. 1979. Plant Strategies and Vegetation Process. Wiley, Chichester.
Plant Strategies and Vegetation Process. , ().
Hess, H. E., E. Landolt and R. Hirzel. 1976. Bestimmungsschlüssel zur Flora der Schweiz und angrenzender Gebiete. Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel.
Bestimmungsschlüssel zur Flora der Schweiz und angrenzender Gebiete. , ().
Hill, H. E. and H. G. Gauch. 1980. Detrended correspondence analysis: an improved technique. Vegetatio 42: 47-58.
'Detrended correspondence analysis: an improved technique ' () 42 Vegetatio : 47 -58 .
Horn, H. S. 1976. Succession. In: R. M. May (ed.), Theoretical Ecology. Principles and Applicaions. Saunders, Philadelphia, pp. 187-204.
Succession , () 187 -204 .
Huisman, J., H. Olff and L. F. M. Fresco. 1993. A hierarchical set of models for species response analysis. J. Veg. Sci. 4: 37-46.
'A hierarchical set of models for species response analysis ' () 4 J. Veg. Sci. : 37 -46 .
Krüsi, B. O., M. Schütz, C. Bigler, H. Grämiger and G. Achermann. 1998. Huftiere und Vegetation im Schweizerischen National-park von 1917 bis 1997. Teil 1: Einfluss auf die botanische Vielfalt der subalpinen Weiden; Teil 2: Einfluss auf das Wald-Freilandverhältnis. In: R. Cornelius, and R. Hofmann (eds.), Extensive Haltung robuster Haustierrassen, Wildtier-management, Multi-Spezies-Projekte - Neue Wege in Naturschutz und Landschaftspflege? Inst. Zoo-Wildtierforsch., Berlin, 62-74.
Huftiere und Vegetation im Schweizerischen National-park von 1917 bis 1997. Teil 1: Einfluss auf die botanische Vielfalt der subalpinen Weiden; Teil 2: Einfluss auf das Wald-Freilandverhältnis , () 62 -74 .
Lischke, H. and B. Zierl. 2002. Feedback between structured vegetation and soil water in a changing climate: A simulation study. In: M. Beniston (ed.), Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management. Kluwer. pp. 349-377.
Feedback between structured vegetation and soil water in a changing climate: A simulation study , () 349 -377 .
Matlack, G.R. 1994. Vegetation dynamics of the forest edge - trends in space and successional time. J. Ecol. 82: 113-123.
'Vegetation dynamics of the forest edge - trends in space and successional time ' () 82 J. Ecol. : 113 -123 .
McCook, L. J. 1994. Understanding ecological community succession: Causal models and theories, a review. Vegetatio 110: 115-147.
'Understanding ecological community succession: Causal models and theories, a review ' () 110 Vegetatio : 115 -147 .
Myster, R. W. and S. T. A. Pickett. 1994. A comparison of rate of succession over 18 yr in 10 contrasting old fields. Ecology 75: 387-392.
'A comparison of rate of succession over 18 yr in 10 contrasting old fields ' () 75 Ecology : 387 -392 .
Orlóci, L., M. Anand and X. He. 1993. Markov chain: A realistic model for temporal coenosere? Biom. Praxim. 33: 7-26.
'Markov chain: A realistic model for temporal coenosere ' () 33 Biom. Praxim. : 7 -26 .
Peet, R. K. 1992. Community structure and ecosystem function. In: D. C. Glenn-Lewin, R.K. Peet and T.T. Veblen (eds.), Plant Succession. Chapman and Hall. London, pp. 103-151.
Community structure and ecosystem function , () 103 -151 .
Pickett, T. A. 1989. Space-for-time substitution as an alternative to long-term studies. In: E. Likens (ed.), Long-Term Studies in Ecology: Approaches and Alternatives. Springer, New York. pp. 110-135.
Space-for-time substitution as an alternative to long-term studies , () 110 -135 .
Price, D. T., N. E. Zimmermann, M. J. L. van der Meer, P. Leadley, I. T. M. Jorritsma, J. Schaber, D. F. Clark, P. Lasch, S. Mcnulty, J. Wu and B. Smith. 2001. Regeneration in gap models: priority issues for studying forest responses to climate change. Climatic Change 51: 475-508.
'Regeneration in gap models: priority issues for studying forest responses to climate change ' () 51 Climatic Change : 475 -508 .
Schloeth, R. F. 1972. Die Entwicklung des Schalenwildbestandes im Schweizerischen Nationalpark von 1918 - 1971. Schweiz. Zeitschr. Forstwes. 123: 565-571.
'Die Entwicklung des Schalenwildbestandes im Schweizerischen Nationalpark von 1918 - 1971 ' () 123 Schweiz. Zeitschr. Forstwes. : 565 -571 .
Schütz, M., B. O. Krüsi, G. Achermann, and H. Grämiger. 1998. Zeitreihenanalyse in der Vegetationskunde: Analyse und Interpretation von Einzelflächen am Beispiel von Daten aus dem Schweizerischen Nationalpark. Bot. Helv. 108: 105-124.
'Zeitreihenanalyse in der Vegetationskunde: Analyse und Interpretation von Einzelflächen am Beispiel von Daten aus dem Schweizerischen Nationalpark ' () 108 Bot. Helv. : 105 -124 .
Shugart H. H. and D. C. West. 1977. Development of an Appalachian Deciduous Forest Succession Model ant its Application to Assessment of the Impact of Chesnut Blight. J. Environ. Manage. 5: 161-179.
'Development of an Appalachian Deciduous Forest Succession Model ant its Application to Assessment of the Impact of Chesnut Blight ' () 5 J. Environ. Manage. : 161 -179 .
Shugart, H. H. 1984. A Theory of forest Dynamics. The Ecological Implications of Forest Succession Models. Springer-Verlag, N.Y.
A Theory of forest Dynamics. The Ecological Implications of Forest Succession Models. , ().
Solomon, A. M. and A. P. Kirilenko. 1997. Climate change and terrestrial biomass: What if trees do not migrate! Global Ecol. Bio-geog. Lett. 6: 139-148.
'Climate change and terrestrial biomass: What if trees do not migrate ' () 6 Global Ecol. Bio-geog. Lett. : 139 -148 .
Stüssi, B. 1970. Naturbedingte Entwicklung subalpiner Weiderasen auf Alp La Schera im Schweizer Nationalpark während der Reservatsperiode 1939-1965. Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungen im schweizerischen Nationalpark. Bd XIII, 385 p.
'Naturbedingte Entwicklung subalpiner Weiderasen auf Alp La Schera im Schweizer Nationalpark während der Reservatsperiode 1939-1965 ' () XIII Ergebnisse der wissenschaftlichen Untersuchungen im schweizerischen Nationalpark : 385 .
Usher, M. B. 1981. Modelling ecological succession, with particular reference to Markovian model. Vegetatio 46: 11-18.
'Modelling ecological succession, with particular reference to Markovian model ' () 46 Vegetatio : 11 -18 .
Botkin, D. B., J. F. Janak and J. R. Wallis. 1972. Rationale, limitations and assumptions of a northeastern forest growth simulator. IBM Journal of Research and Development 16: 101-116.
'Rationale, limitations and assumptions of a northeastern forest growth simulator ' () 16 IBM Journal of Research and Development : 101 -116 .
Braun-Blanquet, J., S. Brunies, E. Campell, E. Frey, H. Jenny, Ch. Meylan and H. Pallmann. 1931. Vegetationsentwicklung im Schweiz. Nationalpark. Ergebnisse der Untersuchung von Dauerbeobachtungsflächen I. Dokumente zur Untersuchung des Schweiz. Nationalparks. Jahresb. Nat. Ges. Graub. 69: 3 - 82.
'Vegetationsentwicklung im Schweiz. Nationalpark. Ergebnisse der Untersuchung von Dauerbeobachtungsflächen I. Dokumente zur Untersuchung des Schweiz. Nationalparks ' () 69 Jahresb. Nat. Ges. Graub. : 3 -82 .
Bugmann, H. 2001. A review of forest gap models. Climate Change 51: 259-305.
'A review of forest gap models ' () 51 Climate Change : 259 -305 .