EU transfers play a significant role in the long-term convergence of the Hungarian economy. The paper presents several channels through which transfers can be effective. First the modelling experiences and other techniques are summarised which can be useful to estimate the impact of EU transfers.Next we present the so-called ECO-TREND model developed in the ECOSTAT, suitable for both mid- and long-term forecasts and scenario analysis. The assessment of the model parameters has been based on standard statistical methods and on experts’ estimations. Such a model can be a useful decision-making tool for the economic policy. Finally, forecasts are presented for the Hungarian economy until 2020, which is completed by the analysis of three different macroeconomic scenarios based on different subsidy-absorption rates and different structures of expenditure.
Bachtler, J. — Taylor, S. (1996): Regional development strategies in Objective 2 regions: A comparative assessment.
, 30(December): 723–732.
Taylor S., 'Regional development strategies in Objective 2 regions: A comparative assessment' (1996) 30Regional Studies: 723-732.
Taylor S.Regional development strategies in Objective 2 regions: A comparative assessmentRegional Studies199630723732)| false
Bradley, J. — Morgenroth, E. — Untiedt, G. (2003):
Macro-regional evaluation of the Structural Funds using the HERMIN modelling framework
. Paper for presentation at the 43rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association;
, download date: 8 May 2007
Bradley, J. — Gács, J. — Kangur, A. — Lubenets, N. (2005): HERMIN: A macro model framework for the study of cohesion and transition. In:
Integration, Growth and Cohesion in an Enlarged European Union. ZEI Studies in European Economics and Law
, Vol. VII, December.
Cserháti, I. — Erni, T. — Keresztély, T. (2004): Hosszú távú növekedési szcenáriók elemzése az ECO-TREND modellel [Analysis of long-term growth scenarios with the ECO-TREND model].
A gazdaságelemzés módszerei
2004/I. (ECOSTAT Working Paper).
Cserháti, I. — Keresztély, T. — Varga, Zs. (2007): Az EU-transzferek szerepe a hosszú távú felzárkózásban [The role of EU transfers in long-term catching-up].
A gazdaságelemzés módszerei
2007/I. (ECOSTAT Working Paper).
Better management through evaluation, Mid-term review of Structural Funds programmes: Objectives 1 and 6
. Luxembourg: Office for official publications of the European Communities.
'', in Better management through evaluation, Mid-term review of Structural Funds programmes: Objectives 1 and 6, (1999) -.
Better management through evaluation, Mid-term review of Structural Funds programmes: Objectives 1 and 61999)| false
Roeger, W. (1996):
Macroeconomic evaluation of the effects of CSF with QUEST II
. Paper presented at the European Conference on evaluation methods for Structural Funds intervention, Berlin, 2–3 December.
Roeger, W. — in’t Veld, J. (1997): QUEST II — A multi country business cycle and growth model.
, No. 123. October.
Romer, P. M. (1986): Increasing returns and long run growth.
Journal of Political Economy
, 94(5): 1002–1037.
Romer P. M., 'Increasing returns and long run growth' (1986) 94Journal of Political Economy: 1002-1037.
Romer P. M.Increasing returns and long run growthJournal of Political Economy19869410021037)| false