View More View Less
  • 1 Hungarian National Bank
Restricted access

Using an updated microsimulation model developed earlier in the Hungarian National Bank, we estimate the macroeconomic, budgetary and labour market effects of government measures relating to taxes, social contributions, social transfers and gross wages since 2010. Compared to other studies, we take into account a more broad scope of measures, e.g. measures affecting gross wages and total labour cost directly. According to our estimations, the increase of the minimum wage and the so-called expected wage have fully compensated the low-income households of 2.3 million people already in the short-run for the loss of net income stemming from personal income tax and social contribution changes (especially for the abolition of tax credit).Taking into account social transfer reforms, the long-term macroeconomic effect of the measures is favourable: the level of employment may increase by approximately 2 percent, steady-state GDP level may go up by 1.5–2 and public deficit may decrease in the long run due to the government measures.

  • Bakos, P.Benczúr, P.Benedek, D. (2008): The Elasticity of Taxable Income: Estimates and Flat Tax Predictions Using the Hungarian Tax Changes in 2005. MNB Working Papers 2008(7).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benczúr, P.Kátay, G.Kiss, Á. (2012): Assessing Changes of the Hungarian Tax and Transfer System: A General Equilibrium Microsimulation Approach. MNB Working Papers 2012(7).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benczúr, P.Kátay, G.Kiss, Á.Reizer, B.Szoboszlai, M. (2011): Az adó-és transzferrendszer változásainak elemzése viselkedési mikroszimulációs modell segítségével [An analysis of the changes in the tax and social transfer system using a behavioural microsimulation model]. MNB-szemle 2011 (October): 1527.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benczúr, P.Kátay, G.Kiss, Á.Rácz, O. (2012): Income Taxation, Transfers and Labour Supply at the Extensive Margin. Mimeo, MNB.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benczúr, P.Kiss, Á.Mosberger, P. (2012): Az adóköteles jövedelem rugalmassága [The elasticity of taxable income]. In: Fazekas, K.Benczúr, P.Telegdy, Á. (eds): Munkaerőpiaci Tükör 2012. Budapest: Hungarian Academy of Sciences Economics and Regional Scientific Research Center Institute of Economics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benedek, D.Kátay, G.Kiss, Á. (2012): Az adóváltozások hatásainak elemzése mikroszimulációs modellek segítségével [An analysis of the changes in the tax system using microsimulation models]. In: Fazekas, K.Benczúr, P.Telegdy, Á. (eds): Munkaerőpiaci Tükör 2012. Budapest: Hungarian Academy of Sciences Economics and Regional Scientific Research Center Institute of Economics

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Benedek, D.Lelkes, O. (2011): The Distributional Implications of Income Under-Reporting in Hungary. Fiscal Studies 32(4): 539560.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elek, P.Köllő, J.Reizer, B.Szabó, P. A. (2012): Detecting Wage Under-Reporting Using a Double Hurdle Model. Research in Labor Economics 34: 135166.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elek, P.Szabó, P. A. (2009): A fiktív minimálbéresek vizsgálata a bértarifa-felvétel segítségével [Analysis of fictive minimal wage earners]. Manuscript, www.mktudegy.hu/files/ElekPeter.pdf, accessed 12 August 2014.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kátay, G.Scharle, Á. (2012): A munkakínálat extenzív határa [The extensive limit of labour supply]. In: Fazekas, K.Benczúr, P.Telegdy, Á. (eds): Munkaerőpiaci Tükör 2012. Budapest: Hungarian Academy of Sciences Economics and Regional Scientific Research Center Institute of Economics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kátay, G.Wolf, Z. (2004): Investment Behavior, User Cost and Monetary Policy Transmission: The Case of Hungary. MNB Working Papers 2004(12).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kiss, Á.Mosberger, P. (2011): The Elasticity of Taxable Income of High Income Earners: Evidence from Hungary. MNB Working Papers 2011(11).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Semjén, A.Tóth, I. J.Medgyesi, M.Czibik, Á. (2009): Adócsalás és korrupció – lakossági érintettség és elfogadottság [Tax fraud and corruption – involvement of the population and acceptance]. In: Semjén A.Tóth I. J. (eds): Rejtett gazdaság: Be nem jelentett foglalkoztatás és jövedelemeltitkolás – kormányzati lépések és a gazdasági szereplők válaszai [Shadow economy. Undeclared employment and income hiding – governmental actions and responses of economic players]. Budapest: MTA Institute of Economics 228258.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Svraka, A.Szabó, I.Hudecz V. (2013): Foglalkoztatásösztönző adókedvezmények a magyar munkaerőpiacon [Employment stimulating tax facilities on the Hungarian labor market]. Pénzügyi Szemle 58(4): 401417.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tóth, G. C.Virovácz, P. (2013): Nyertesek és vesztesek: A magyar egykulcsos adóreform vizsgálata mikroszimulációs módszerrel [Winners and losers: The analysis of the Hungarian flat tax reform using microsimulation methods]. Pénzügyi Szemle 58(4): 385400.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation