Central European Geology
Volume/Issue:
Volume 55: Issue 2
Notes on petroleum industry standard geologic probability assessments
Author:
Imre Szilágyi Exploration Geologist and Petroleum Economist Independent Expert, Budapest, H-2040 Budaörs, Kertész utca 22/1, Hungary

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Pages:
181–185
Online Publication Date:
01 Jun 2012
Publication Date:
01 Jun 2012
Article Category:
Research Article
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1556/ceugeol.55.2012.2.4
Keywords:
petroleum exploration drilling projects; geological probability components; probability of independent events
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Abstract

This paper discusses the assessment methodology of geologic probabilities of success of drillable prospects determined by petroleum exploration geologists. The commonly accepted industry standard assessment methods suggest the probability evaluation of key components of oil and gas accumulation: source rock, reservoir, seal rock and trap, and migration and timing. On the assumption that the risked events resulting in the assembly of the key components are geologically and eventalgebraically independent, the geological probability is computed as the product of the probabilities of each. Without challenging the overall correctness of the approach, this study argues that the presumed independency does not always apply. For these cases, probability evaluation of the actually and truly independent geologic and hydrodynamic processes is advised.

  • R.A. Howard 1966 Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory D.B. Hertz J. Melese Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Operational Research Wiley- Interscience New York 55 71.

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  • P.D. Newendorp 1975 Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration The Petroleum Publishing Co. Tulsa, OK.

  • Otis, R.M., N. Schneidermann 1997: A Process for Evaluating Exploration Prospects. - AAPG Bulletin, Vol. 81, No. 7.

  • Rose, P.R. 1992: Chance of Success and Its Use in Petroleum Exploration. - In: Steinmetz, R. (ed.): The Business of Petroleum Exploration. AAPG Treatise of Petroleum Geology, Chapter 7, pp. 71–86.

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  • Rose, P.R. 2001: Risk Analyses and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures. - In: AAPG Methods in Exploration Series No. 12.

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Cover Central European Geology
Central European Geology
Print ISSN:
1788-2281
Online ISSN:
1789-3348

Senior editors

Editor(s)-in-Chief: Attila DEMÉNY

Deputy Editor(s)-in-Chief: Béla RAUCSIK

Co-ordinating Editor(s): Gábor SCHMIEDL

Editorial Board

  • Zsolt BENKÓ (Geochemistry, Ar dating; Institute for Nuclear Research, Debrecen)
  • Szabolcs HARANGI (Petrology, geochemistry, volcanology; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest)
  • Anette GÖTZ (Sedimentology; Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie, Hannover)
  • János HAAS (Regional Geology and Sedimentology; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest)
  • István Gábor HATVANI (Geomathematics; Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research, Budapest)
  • Henry M. LIEBERMAN (Language Editor; Salt Lake City)
  • János KOVÁCS (Quaternary geology; University of Pécs)
  • Szilvia KÖVÉR (Sedimentology; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest)
  • Tivadar M. TÓTH (Mineralogy; Petrology    University of Szeged)
  • Stephen J. MOJZSIS (Petrology, geochemistry and planetology; University of Colorado Boulder)
  • Norbert NÉMETH (Structural geology; University of Miskolc)
  • Attila ŐSI (Paleontology; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest)
  • József PÁLFY (Fossils and Stratigraphic Records; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest)
  • György POGÁCSÁS (Petroleum Geology; Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest)
  • Krisztina SEBE (Tectonics, sedimentology, geomorphology University of Pécs)
  • Ioan SEGHEDY (Petrology and geochemistry; Institute of Geodynamics, Bucharest)
  • Lóránd SILYE (Paleontology; Babeș-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca)
  • Ákos TÖRÖK (Applied and Environmental Earth Sciences; Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest)
  • Norbert ZAJZON (Petrology and geochemistry; University of Miskolc)
  • Ferenc MOLNÁR (ore geology, geochemistry, geochronology, archaeometry; Geological Survey of Finland, Espoo)

Advisory Board

Due to the changes in editorial functions, the Advisory Board has been terminated. The participation of former Advisory Board members is highly appreciated and gratefully thanked.

CENTRAL EUROPEAN GEOLOGY
Institute for Geochemical Research
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Address: Budaörsi út 45. H-1112 Budapest, Hungary
Phone: (06 1) 309 2681
Phone/fax: (06 1) 319 3137
E-mail: demeny@geochem.hu

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2023  
Scopus  
CiteScore 1.4
CiteScore rank Q3 (Geology)
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Central European Geology
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Central European Geology
Language English
Size Vol 1-63: B5
Vol 64- : A4
Year of
Foundation		 2007 (1952)
Volumes
per Year		 1
Issues
per Year		 2
Founder Magyar Tudományos Akadémia  
Founder's
Address		 H-1051 Budapest, Hungary, Széchenyi István tér 9.
Publisher Akadémiai Kiadó
Publisher's
Address		 H-1117 Budapest, Hungary 1516 Budapest, PO Box 245.
Responsible
Publisher		 Chief Executive Officer, Akadémiai Kiadó
ISSN 1788-2281 (Print)
ISSN 1789-3348 (Online)

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