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  • 1 Exploration Geologist and Petroleum Economist Independent Expert, Budapest, H-2040 Budaörs, Kertész utca 22/1, Hungary
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Abstract

This paper discusses the assessment methodology of geologic probabilities of success of drillable prospects determined by petroleum exploration geologists. The commonly accepted industry standard assessment methods suggest the probability evaluation of key components of oil and gas accumulation: source rock, reservoir, seal rock and trap, and migration and timing. On the assumption that the risked events resulting in the assembly of the key components are geologically and eventalgebraically independent, the geological probability is computed as the product of the probabilities of each. Without challenging the overall correctness of the approach, this study argues that the presumed independency does not always apply. For these cases, probability evaluation of the actually and truly independent geologic and hydrodynamic processes is advised.

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  • P.D. Newendorp 1975 Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration The Petroleum Publishing Co. Tulsa, OK.

  • Otis, R.M., N. Schneidermann 1997: A Process for Evaluating Exploration Prospects. - AAPG Bulletin, Vol. 81, No. 7.

  • Rose, P.R. 1992: Chance of Success and Its Use in Petroleum Exploration. - In: Steinmetz, R. (ed.): The Business of Petroleum Exploration. AAPG Treatise of Petroleum Geology, Chapter 7, pp. 7186.

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  • Rose, P.R. 2001: Risk Analyses and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures. - In: AAPG Methods in Exploration Series No. 12.

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Senior editors

Editor(s)-in-Chief: Demény, Attila

Deputy Editor(s)-in-Chief: Raucsik, Béla

Co-ordinating Editor(s): Schmiedl, Gábor

Editorial Board

  • Dobosi, Gábor (Geochemistry)
  • Haas, János Regional Geology and Sedimentology)
  • Márton, Emő (Geodynamics)
  • Ősi, Attila (paleontology)
  • Seghedy, Ioan (petrology and geochemistry)
  • Zajzon, Norbert (petrology and geochemistry)
  • Németh, Norbert (structural geology)
  • Kövér, Szilvia (sedimentology)
  • Götz, Anette (sedimentology)
  • Mojzsis, Stephen J. (petrology, geochemistry and planetology)
  • Hatvani, István Gábor (geomathematics)
  • Pálfy, József (Fossils and Stratigraphic Records)
  • Pogácsás, György (Petroleum Geology)
  • M. Tóth, Tivadar (Mineralogy, Petrology)
  • Török, Ákos (Applied and Environmental Earth Sciences)
  • Henry M. Lieberman (Language Editor)

Advisory Board

Due to the changes in editorial functions, the Advisory Board has been terminated. The participation of former Advisory Board members is highly appreciated and gratefully thanked.

CENTRAL EUROPEAN GEOLOGY
Institute for Geochemical Research
Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Address: Budaörsi út 45. H-1112 Budapest, Hungary
Phone: (06 1) 309 2681
Phone/fax: (06 1) 319 3137
E-mail: demeny@geochem.hu