Authors:
Milica Aleksić Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology, Radlinského 11, Bratislava, Slovakia

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Patrik Sleziak Institute of Hydrology, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Dúbravská cesta 9, 841 04, Bratislava, Slovakia

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Kamila Hlavčová Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology, Radlinského 11, Bratislava, Slovakia

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Abstract

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the impact of climate change on the runoff regime in the Myjava River basin. Changes in climatic characteristics for future decades were expressed by a regional climate model using the A1B emission scenario. The model was calibrated for 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2010, 2011–2019. The best set of model parameters selected from the recent calibration period was used to simulate runoff for three periods, which should reflect the level of future climate change. The results show that the runoff should increase in the winter months (December and January) and decrease in the summer months (June to August). An evaluation of the long-term mean monthly runoff for the future climate scenario indicates that the highest runoff will occur in March.

  • [1]

    K. Mátyás and K. Bene , “Using numerical modeling error analysis methods to indicate changes in a watershed,” Pollack Period., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 175186, 2018.

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  • [2]

    P. Dušek and Y. Velísková , “Comparison of the MODFLOW modules for the simulation of the river type boundary condition,” Pollack Period., vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 313, 2017.

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  • [3]

    K. Hlavčová , J. Szolgay , S. Kohnová , and G. Bálint , “Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia,” in XXIVTH Conference of the Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forcasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management, Bled, Slovenia, June 2–4, 2008, 2008, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 4, Paper no. 012022.

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    K. Hlavčová , M. Lapin , P. Valent , J. Szolgay , S. Kohnová , and P. Rončák Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods,” Contrib Geophys Geodesy, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 173192. 2015.

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  • [5]

    Z. Štefunková , K. Hlavčová , and M. Lapin , “Runoff change scenarios based on regional climate change projections in mountainous basins in Slovakia,” Contrib Geophys Geodesy, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 327350, 2013.

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  • [6]

    P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , and T. Látková , “Estimation of the effect of changes in forest associations on runoff processes in basins: case study in the Hron and Topla river basins,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 17, 2016.

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  • [7]

    P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , S. Kohnová , and J. Szolgay , “Impacts of future climate change on runoff in selected catchments of Slovakia,” in Climate Change Adaptation in Eastern Europe. Climate Change Management, F. W. Leal , G. Trbic , and D. Filipovic , Eds., Springer, Cham. pp. 279292, 2019.

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  • [8]

    S. Kohnová , P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , J. Szolgay , and A. Rutkowska , “Future impacts of land use and climate change on extreme runoff values in selected catchments of Slovakia,” Mete. Hydro. Water Man., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 4755. 2019.

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  • [9]

    A. Viglione and J. Parajka : “Package TUWmodel,” Vienna, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TUWmodel/TUWmodel.pdf. Accessed: Sep. 12, 2020.

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  • [10]

    J. Szolgay , G. Blöschl , Z. Gribovszki , and J. Parajka , “Hydrology of the Carpathian Basin: interactions of climatic drivers and hydrological processes on local and regional scales - HydroCarpath Research,” J. Hydrol. Hydromech., vol. 68, no. 2, pp. 128133, 2020.

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  • [11]

    P. Sleziak , J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , and J. Parajka The impact of the variability of precipitation and temperatures on the efficiency of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 17, 2016.

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  • [12]

    P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , and T. Látková , “Estimation of the effect of changes in forest associations on runoff processes in basins: Case study in the Hron and Topl'a River basins,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 17, 2016.

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  • [13]

    Z. Štefunková ., K. Hlavčová , and M. M. Labat , “Assessment of the impact of changes in deforestation under the effect of severe windstorms on runoff conditions in small river basins,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 3743, 2019.

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  • [14]

    P. Sleziak ., J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , D. Duethmann , J. Parajka , and M. Danko , “Factors controlling alterations in the performance of a runoff model in changing climate conditions,” J. Hydrol. Hydromech., vol. 66, no. 4, pp. 381392, 2018.

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  • [15]

    J. E. Nash and J. V. Sutcliffe , “Riverflow forecasting through conceptual models 1. A discussion of principle,” J. Hydrol., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 282290, 1970.

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  • [16]

    D. Ardia , K. Mullen , B. Peterson , J. Ulrich , and K. Boudt , “Package DEoptim,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/DEoptim/DEoptim.pdf. Accessed: Sep. 16, 2020.

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  • [17]

    P. Sleziak , J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , M. Danko , and J. Parajka The effect of the snow weighting on the temporal stability of hydrologic model efficiency and parameters,” J. Hydrol., vol. 583, pp. 114, 2020.

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  • [18]

    Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut [The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute]. [Online]. Available: https://www.knmi.nl/home. Accessed: Dec. 18, 2020.

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  • [19]

    M. Lapin , I. Bašták , M. Gera , J. Hrvol' , M. Kremler , and M. Melo New climate change scenarios for Slovakia based on global and regional general circulation models,” Acta Met. Uni. Com., vol. 37, pp. 2573, 2012.

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  • [20]

    P. Sleziak , J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , J. Parajka , and M. Kubáň Impact of the spatial conceptualization of a hydrological model on the accuracy of flow simulations,” Acta Hydro. Slo., vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 6068, 2018.

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Senior editors

Editor(s)-in-Chief: Iványi, Amália

Editor(s)-in-Chief: Iványi, Péter

 

Scientific Secretary

Miklós M. Iványi

Editorial Board

  • Bálint Bachmann (Institute of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Jeno Balogh (Department of Civil Engineering Technology, Metropolitan State University of Denver, Denver, Colorado, USA)
  • Radu Bancila (Department of Geotechnical Engineering and Terrestrial Communications Ways, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, “Politehnica” University Timisoara, Romania)
  • Charalambos C. Baniotopolous (Department of Civil Engineering, Chair of Sustainable Energy Systems, Director of Resilience Centre, School of Engineering, University of Birmingham, U.K.)
  • Oszkar Biro (Graz University of Technology, Institute of Fundamentals and Theory in Electrical Engineering, Austria)
  • Ágnes Borsos (Institute of Architecture, Department of Interior, Applied and Creative Design, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Matteo Bruggi (Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano, Italy)
  • Petra Bujňáková (Department of Structures and Bridges, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Žilina, Slovakia)
  • Anikó Borbála Csébfalvi (Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Smart Technology and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Mirjana S. Devetaković (Faculty of Architecture, University of Belgrade, Serbia)
  • Szabolcs Fischer (Department of Transport Infrastructure and Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Architerture, Civil Engineering and Transport Sciences Széchenyi István University, Győr, Hungary)
  • Radomir Folic (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad Serbia)
  • Jana Frankovská (Department of Geotechnics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovakia)
  • János Gyergyák (Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Institute of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Kay Hameyer (Chair in Electromagnetic Energy Conversion, Institute of Electrical Machines, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, RWTH Aachen University, Germany)
  • Elena Helerea (Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Applied Physics, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Transilvania University of Brasov, Romania)
  • Ákos Hutter (Department of Architecture and Urban Planning, Institute of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technolgy, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Károly Jármai (Institute of Energy and Chemical Machinery, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Informatics, University of Miskolc, Hungary)
  • Teuta Jashari-Kajtazi (Department of Architecture, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Prishtina, Kosovo)
  • Róbert Kersner (Department of Technical Informatics, Institute of Information and Electrical Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Rita Kiss  (Biomechanical Cooperation Center, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Budapest, Hungary)
  • István Kistelegdi  (Department of Building Structures and Energy Design, Institute of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Stanislav Kmeť (President of University Science Park TECHNICOM, Technical University of Kosice, Slovakia)
  • Imre Kocsis  (Department of Basic Engineering Research, Faculty of Engineering, University of Debrecen, Hungary)
  • László T. Kóczy (Department of Information Sciences, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Informatics and Electrical Engineering, University of Győr, Hungary)
  • Dražan Kozak (Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Croatia)
  • György L. Kovács (Department of Technical Informatics, Institute of Information and Electrical Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Balázs Géza Kövesdi (Department of Structural Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Budapest University of Engineering and Economics, Budapest, Hungary)
  • Tomáš Krejčí (Department of Mechanics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic)
  • Jaroslav Kruis (Department of Mechanics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic)
  • Miklós Kuczmann (Department of Automations, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Informatics and Electrical Engineering, Széchenyi István University, Győr, Hungary)
  • Tibor Kukai (Department of Engineering Studies, Institute of Smart Technology and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Maria Jesus Lamela-Rey (Departamento de Construcción e Ingeniería de Fabricación, University of Oviedo, Spain)
  • János Lógó  (Department of Structural Mechanics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary)
  • Carmen Mihaela Lungoci (Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Universitatea Transilvania Brasov, Romania)
  • Frédéric Magoulés (Department of Mathematics and Informatics for Complex Systems, Centrale Supélec, Université Paris Saclay, France)
  • Gabriella Medvegy (Department of Interior, Applied and Creative Design, Institute of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Tamás Molnár (Department of Visual Studies, Institute of Architecture, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Ferenc Orbán (Department of Mechanical Engineering, Institute of Smart Technology and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Zoltán Orbán (Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Smart Technology and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Dmitrii Rachinskii (Department of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Texas at Dallas, Texas, USA)
  • Chro Radha (Chro Ali Hamaradha) (Sulaimani Polytechnic University, Technical College of Engineering, Department of City Planning, Kurdistan Region, Iraq)
  • Maurizio Repetto (Department of Energy “Galileo Ferraris”, Politecnico di Torino, Italy)
  • Zoltán Sári (Department of Technical Informatics, Institute of Information and Electrical Technology, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Grzegorz Sierpiński (Department of Transport Systems and Traffic Engineering, Faculty of Transport, Silesian University of Technology, Katowice, Poland)
  • Zoltán Siménfalvi (Institute of Energy and Chemical Machinery, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Informatics, University of Miskolc, Hungary)
  • Andrej Šoltész (Department of Hydrology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovakia)
  • Zsolt Szabó (Faculty of Information Technology and Bionics, Pázmány Péter Catholic University, Hungary)
  • Mykola Sysyn (Chair of Planning and Design of Railway Infrastructure, Institute of Railway Systems and Public Transport, Technical University of Dresden, Germany)
  • András Timár (Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)
  • Barry H. V. Topping (Heriot-Watt University, UK, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Hungary)

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2023  
Scopus  
CiteScore 1.5
CiteScore rank Q3 (Civil and Structural Engineering)
SNIP 0.849
Scimago  
SJR index 0.288
SJR Q rank Q3

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