A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the impact of climate change on the runoff regime in the Myjava River basin. Changes in climatic characteristics for future decades were expressed by a regional climate model using the A1B emission scenario. The model was calibrated for 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2010, 2011–2019. The best set of model parameters selected from the recent calibration period was used to simulate runoff for three periods, which should reflect the level of future climate change. The results show that the runoff should increase in the winter months (December and January) and decrease in the summer months (June to August). An evaluation of the long-term mean monthly runoff for the future climate scenario indicates that the highest runoff will occur in March.
K. Mátyás and K. Bene , “Using numerical modeling error analysis methods to indicate changes in a watershed,” Pollack Period., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 175–186, 2018.
P. Dušek and Y. Velísková , “Comparison of the MODFLOW modules for the simulation of the river type boundary condition,” Pollack Period., vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 3–13, 2017.
K. Hlavčová , J. Szolgay , S. Kohnová , and G. Bálint , “Hydrological scenarios of future seasonal runoff distribution in Central Slovakia,” in XXIVTH Conference of the Danubian Countries on the Hydrological Forcasting and Hydrological Bases of Water Management, Bled, Slovenia, June 2–4, 2008, 2008, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 4, Paper no. 012022.
K. Hlavčová , M. Lapin , P. Valent , J. Szolgay , S. Kohnová , and P. Rončák “Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods,” Contrib Geophys Geodesy, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 173–192. 2015.
Z. Štefunková , K. Hlavčová , and M. Lapin , “Runoff change scenarios based on regional climate change projections in mountainous basins in Slovakia,” Contrib Geophys Geodesy, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 327–350, 2013.
P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , and T. Látková , “Estimation of the effect of changes in forest associations on runoff processes in basins: case study in the Hron and Topla river basins,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 1–7, 2016.
P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , S. Kohnová , and J. Szolgay , “Impacts of future climate change on runoff in selected catchments of Slovakia,” in Climate Change Adaptation in Eastern Europe. Climate Change Management, F. W. Leal , G. Trbic , and D. Filipovic , Eds., Springer, Cham. pp. 279–292, 2019.
S. Kohnová , P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , J. Szolgay , and A. Rutkowska , “Future impacts of land use and climate change on extreme runoff values in selected catchments of Slovakia,” Mete. Hydro. Water Man., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 47–55. 2019.
A. Viglione and J. Parajka : “Package TUWmodel,” Vienna, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TUWmodel/TUWmodel.pdf. Accessed: Sep. 12, 2020.
J. Szolgay , G. Blöschl , Z. Gribovszki , and J. Parajka , “Hydrology of the Carpathian Basin: interactions of climatic drivers and hydrological processes on local and regional scales - HydroCarpath Research,” J. Hydrol. Hydromech., vol. 68, no. 2, pp. 128–133, 2020.
P. Sleziak , J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , and J. Parajka “The impact of the variability of precipitation and temperatures on the efficiency of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 1‒7, 2016.
P. Rončák , K. Hlavčová , and T. Látková , “Estimation of the effect of changes in forest associations on runoff processes in basins: Case study in the Hron and Topl'a River basins,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 1‒7, 2016.
Z. Štefunková ., K. Hlavčová , and M. M. Labat , “Assessment of the impact of changes in deforestation under the effect of severe windstorms on runoff conditions in small river basins,” Slovak J Civil Eng., vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 37‒43, 2019.
P. Sleziak ., J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , D. Duethmann , J. Parajka , and M. Danko , “Factors controlling alterations in the performance of a runoff model in changing climate conditions,” J. Hydrol. Hydromech., vol. 66, no. 4, pp. 381–392, 2018.
J. E. Nash and J. V. Sutcliffe , “Riverflow forecasting through conceptual models 1. A discussion of principle,” J. Hydrol., vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 282‒290, 1970.
D. Ardia , K. Mullen , B. Peterson , J. Ulrich , and K. Boudt , “Package DEoptim,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/DEoptim/DEoptim.pdf. Accessed: Sep. 16, 2020.
P. Sleziak , J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , M. Danko , and J. Parajka “The effect of the snow weighting on the temporal stability of hydrologic model efficiency and parameters,” J. Hydrol., vol. 583, pp. 1‒14, 2020.
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut [The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute]. [Online]. Available: https://www.knmi.nl/home. Accessed: Dec. 18, 2020.
M. Lapin , I. Bašták , M. Gera , J. Hrvol' , M. Kremler , and M. Melo “New climate change scenarios for Slovakia based on global and regional general circulation models,” Acta Met. Uni. Com., vol. 37, pp. 25‒73, 2012.
P. Sleziak , J. Szolgay , K. Hlavčová , J. Parajka , and M. Kubáň “Impact of the spatial conceptualization of a hydrological model on the accuracy of flow simulations,” Acta Hydro. Slo., vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 60–68, 2018.