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Abstract
The paper presents a comprehensive overview of the public health system in the separatist Trasnistrian region of Moldova, an analytically unorthodox undertaking, as this entails looking at the health system of a fragile breakaway state-like entity, a set of circumstances that — rather inevitably, it seems — may define certain basic features of the health system at hand. Attention will be dedicated to outlining the main challenges the region's public health system faces, for instance, concerning the spread of infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and SARS-CoV-2. Studying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic can especially serve as a litmus test of the available capacities in Transnistria to deal with public health challenges: facing a novel pathogen, and the related disease and epidemic which threaten to overburden the local institutions. A key question examined here, through the example of Transnistria, is the degree to which international support to the region and the increasing cooperation with the internationally recognized state of Moldova are indispensable for public health security in the unrecognized state.
Abstract
Crowdfunding is a disruptive innovation and has provoked interest as a new way of raising finance. The objective of our research was to analyse both the demand and supply sides of the crowdfunding ecosystem. The study used two methods. The first was a database analysis of 259,114 Kickstarter campaigns. The second was a survey on public awareness of crowdfunding in Hungary, from the perspective of 132 potential investors. The findings suggest several success factors that may be useful for campaign launchers: (1) appealing project presentation; (2) diverse pool of rewards; (3) realistic set of funding goals; (4) appropriate categories and sums of pledges; and (5) frequent communication and satisfactory information about the campaign. Furthermore, the study revealed the differences between the potential investors' expectations and the reality of crowdfunding practices.
Abstract
The paper uses data from the World Values Survey and the European Values Study on individuals in Hungary and its neighbouring countries to examine the effects of political borders on different beliefs, as opposed to that of ethnic differences or historical borders. The focus on Hungary and its neighbours is explained by the fact that parts of the Hungarian ethno-linguistic community can be found in all these countries, which makes it possible to separate the effect of culture from that of the current political community. By applying a cultural gravity model which is concerned with the differences in beliefs between all possible pairs of individuals in the sample, the paper finds that out of five areas of beliefs, it is the beliefs regarding work, markets, and democracy whose differences are robustly affected by political borders, giving some support to the approach which argues that values are shaped through the dialogue occurring within a political community.*
Abstract
How China will contribute to global governance has become a critical question in international relations, amplified by the linkages between the Covid-19 pandemic, escalating geopolitical contest and multilateralism in crisis. China has been doubling down on its authoritarian model of domestic governance while becoming more internationally assertive, including in existing and new multilateral institutions. Meanwhile, the United States appeared in recent years to be undermining the institutions, norms and rules of the liberal international order that it, itself, built. The subsequent decline in international cooperation poses grave risks to public health, economic and other forms of security. Can China cooperate with other actors to contribute public goods and stabilisation of global governance in such a deteriorating international environment? While there is a wide range of institutions in which to examine China's growing role in international governance, from United Nations bodies such as the World Health Organisation and World Trade Organisation to regional initiatives such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, this paper examines the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), an example of Chinese innovation in multilateralism. Established amidst geopolitical contest, the new institution seeks to address the Asian deficit of financing for sustainable development. The bank challenges a number of prevailing norms, including replacing the disproportionate power of the US and the advanced economies in the multilateral system with a more proportionate role for China and other developing countries; a new focus on infrastructure-led development which is built on Chinese confidence in the East Asian development model; and a shift away from the Bretton Woods practices of using financing conditions to drive liberal democratic and neo-liberal economic reforms. At the same time as representing a challenge to the traditional order, the bank exhibits – at least to date – best practices in implementation and addresses previously unmet concerns of the developing world. While it is not possible to extrapolate from only one initiative to draw comprehensive conclusions about China's likely future role in global governance, the AIIB case nonetheless suggests that, at least in some fields, China will challenge liberal norms to reform rather than revolutionise the international order.
Abstract
Central and Eastern European countries faced a serious mortality crisis in the second part of the 20th century, resulting in many years of decreasing life expectancy. In the last few decades, however, this was followed by a period in which mortality improved. This dichotomy of past trends makes it difficult to forecast mortality by way of stochastic models that incorporate these countries’ long-term historical data. The product–ratio model (Hyndman et al. 2013) is a model of the coherent type, which relies more closely on subpopulations with common socioeconomic backgrounds and perspectives to forecast mortality for all populations. This paper examines whether the product–ratio model is suitable for forecasting mortality in countries that have experienced serious mortality crises. To that end, we present a case study centered on Hungary, where the mortality crisis lasted three decades. The evaluation is founded on a comprehensive comparison of the product–ratio model and the classical Lee–Carter model. Our main finding is that in the Hungarian case, the product–ratio model is more reliably accurate than the classical Lee–Carter model. The superior performance of the product–ratio model may indicate that coherent models are better suited to handling mortality crises in forecasting mortality than are independent models.
Abstract
The research examines the sustainability of trade flows for two European post-communist economies: Serbia and Romania. We analysed two nonlinear forms of the relationship between exports and imports that cannot be explained by frequently applied linear model specifications. Newly developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach revealed the asymmetric and nonlinear long-run equilibrium between Serbian exports and imports. Nonlinearity tests indicated and the SETAR model specification confirmed threshold nonlinearity form in the Serbian trade flows pattern. Serbian trade flows still approach its sustainable equilibrium but the development pattern is promising. The results for Romania revealed another nonlinear form of the relationship between exports and imports, indicating a dependent cointegration. The paper provides robust results and supports the hypothesis that the relationship between exports and imports can be nonlinear and symmetric.
Abstract
In this paper, we analyse the determinants of credit growth for banks operating in 20 countries in the post-communist Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE). We focus on foreign-owned banks and the parent-subsidiary nexus against the background of all banks operating in this part of Europe. Our goal is to determine whether the macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants for host countries have a similar impact on the entire group of banks operating in CESEE and on its subset of foreign-owned banks and whether the rate of credit growth could be considered ceteris paribus equal across the foreign-owned and the complete set of banks in the CESEE. To this end, we use panel data regressions on approximately 4,600 bank-year observations over the period from 1995 to 2014. We conclude that the determinants of banks’ behaviour in the CESEE countries are consistent regardless of these banks’ ownership, the period and their EU membership. Although having a foreign investor expands the set of relevant determinants, the presence of such investors does not overshadow the importance of local conditions.
Abstract
This paper aims to examine specific cultural attributes which may be favourable to economic development or restrictive to corruptive behaviour. The indicators of GDP growth and GDP per capita, the Human Development Index (HDI), Hofstede's cultural dimensions and the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) were used within a two staged analysis on the sample of selected emerging economies between 1995–2015. The findings of the research outline the complexity of this topic and numerous interrelations among the involved variables. The paper emphasises the importance of understanding the cultural traits of societies and the motives for corruption, to be able to take appropriate measures to promote economic and human development and to combat corruption. Future studies could assess differences within cultural clusters of the emerging economies to allow further insights on a comparative level, increasing the possibility to find answers why different regions develop faster than others.
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth in Poland and a few metrics of fiscal policy: budget deficit relative to GDP, the structure of public debt, education expenditures, and public consumption. We prove that with constant values of parameters of fiscal policy, over time the economy converges to the balanced growth path which is unique and globally asymptotically stable.
Having calibrated the model with statistical data, we demonstrate that in the period of 2000–2016 economic growth in Poland was driven primarily by rapid improvement in the level of human capital (at a rate of 5.4% per annum), and secondarily due to the accumulation of capital (2.7% annually). If recent trends in fiscal policy are continued, the Polish economy will converge to the balanced growth path with GDP growing at 3.7%. This rate may be boosted, if fiscal policy is appropriately adjusted, for example by permanent reduction in budget deficit. We also analyse the effects of changes in the financing structure of public debt. Finally, we present several scenarios of increasing public and private spending on education.
