Although Ethiopia is one of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), there is a lack of empirical studies about the determinants of its external indebtedness. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining the macroeconomic determinants of the external indebtedness of Ethiopia between 1981 and 2016, using the two- and three-gap models as a theoretical framework and an autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach. The result shows that in the long run, the savings-investment gap, trade deficit, fiscal deficit, and debt service have a positive and significant impact on external indebtedness. However, the growth rate of gross domestic product, trade openness, and inflation negatively and significantly affect the external indebtedness of the country. These results coincide with the predictions of the two- and three-gap models of the theoretical framework. The study argues that appropriate macroeconomic, social, and supply-side policies are essential to reducing the external indebtedness of Ethiopia.
Authors:Óscar Brito Fernandes, Mukhethwa Netshiombo, László Gulácsi, Niek S. Klazinga, Márta Péntek and Petra Baji
The South African Ministry of Health has recognized experiences of care as key to strengthen patient-centred care. This case study aims to measure patient-reported experiences of care at a clinic in South Africa, and its associations with the respondents' sociodemographic characteristics. A survey was conducted in 2019 on a convenience sample of 179 respondents. Questions on experiences of care were based on a standardised set of questions by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Logistic regression was used to examine the effects of respondents' characteristics on their experiences. The proportion of respondents who reported that a nurse spent adequate time with them during consultation was significantly higher among literate respondents (92.3 vs. 79.5%). Those who reported past negative experiences were significantly more likely to report a positive experience in regard to perceiving adequate consulting time (odds ratio = 3.865, with a 95% confidence interval between 1.555 and 9.607), receiving easy-to-understand explanations (4.308; 1.665–11.145), being given the opportunity to ask questions (2.156; 1.013–4.589) and shared decision–making (3.822; 1.728–8.457). The results can spur comparisons with other clinics in a similar setting and inform key stakeholders on aspects of the care experience that need greater improvement within the national framework for quality and safety assurance and patient experience measurement.
The expected future impact of the fourth industrial revolution is a hotly debated issue in the literature. The majority of papers focus on quantifying the expected impacts on labour demand, or on a specific country, or on huge macro-regions – and the estimates differ widely. Our paper focuses on the impact assessment of Industry 4.0 on the expected structure of employment, wages and inequalities in Hungary. We built a static microsimulation model for our analysis, where the “EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions Hungary 2017” dataset was used as a starting point. Projections by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) were used for policy simulations on future employment by sector and by occupational group for each European Union (EU) member state. The analysis also elaborates our own augmented vision about the expected labour demand changes and expected wage trends. Based on this information, the spill-over effects were calculated regarding wage structure and inequalities by sector, region and the highest educational attainment.
The main characteristics of intra-EU labour mobility are well documented. There is less focus, however, on the pattern of mobility of the East European (EU-13) EU-mobile citizens. This group constitutes more than half (57%) of all the EU movers and show, to some extent, other features than the rest of the EU mobile citizens (EU-15). The first part of this paper gives a brief overview of some key demographic and labour market characteristics of the East European mobile citizens in the most important destination countries. The perspectives of the sending countries are not analysed frequently enough, and thus the second part of the paper focuses on this issue in the case of Hungary, by asking to what extent the serious labour shortages, ensuing from the outflow of Hungarians, could be compensated by the recent increase of immigration of third country nationals. Using OECD data, the paper quantifies the balance of labour gains and losses for Hungary and compares this with Czechia, Poland, and Slovakia. The analysis concludes that despite the substantial recent inflow of third country nationals into Hungary, it remains to be seen whether this has a real substitution effect for the lost domestic labour force.
The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between unemployment benefits and durations of unemployment with respect to different approaches in social policy. The hypothesis of the research is that unemployment benefits negatively affect the duration of unemployment. An analysis of the relationship concerning unemployment benefits and duration of unemployment within the European Union Member States (EU-28) between 2006–2018 using panel data regression approach was conducted. The sample was split into sub-samples in order to get more homogeneous groups of EU-28 countries. Estimation results suggest that the more generous a social policy, the more prevalent the negative relationship between unemployment duration and unemployment benefits. Our results also revealed that the better the economic situation, the less pressure is put on unemployment benefits and on the duration of unemployment.
Authors:József Varga, GyÖngyi Bánkuti and Rita kovács-szamosi
Rating the reliability of banks has always been an important practical problem for businesses and the economic policy makers. The best way to do this is the CAMEL analysis. The aim of this paper was to create a bank-rating indicator from the five fields of the CAMEL analysis using two-two indicators for each field for the Turkish Islamic banking system. According to the results of the analysis, we could rank the Turkish Islamic banks. Beside the widespread use of the CAMEL analysis, we applied the Similarity Analysis as a new method. We compared the results from the two methods and came to the conclusion that the CAMEL analysis does not adequately provide a fairly shaded picture about the banks. The Component-based Object Comparison for Objectivity (COCO) method gave us the yearly results in time series form. The comparison of the time series data leads to the problem of deciding about what is more important for us – average, standard deviation or the slope. For handling this problem, we used Analytic Hierarchy Process, which gave weights to these indicators.
Deflation is widely feared and opposed. This paper provides arguments to explain the anti-deflationary bias. It is argued that governments favour inflation, that the main deflation theories have influenced negatively the public opinion on deflation, and that rent-seeking behaviour and group formation explains why the opposition to deflationary redistribution is stronger than the opposition to inflationary redistribution. Moreover, psychological concepts, such as anchoring, the endowment effect or the availability heuristic have contributed to the fear of deflation by causing a money illusion and a equalisation of deflation and recession.
Authors:András Olivér Németh, Petra Németh and Péter Vékás
The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.
The paper explores the nature of economic models. It is claimed that accounting for it along the isolationism-constructivism line is untenable. A more integrated approach is needed, based on the pragmatist philosophical tradition, focussing rather on the modelling process than on the narrower notion of the model. This argument is backed by a case study: analysis of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) as presented by Roger Garrison, which, as is argued, does not fully fit either the isolationist or the constructivist account of models. It is primarily shown by revealing the fact that learning about the world by using ABCT is not of deductive nature. Therefore, even in the presence of such a strong realistic methodology as the one in the Austrian economics, models used by its adherents are not necessarily perfect isolations. At the same time, this realistic methodology is not in line with the constructivist approach in model-building. The paper should be understood as an exercise in philosophy of economics, namely as an attempt at better understanding of various aspects of economics (here it is models and specifically ABCT) by taking the perspective offered by philosophy of science.
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the economic resilience of Spanish provinces and help to explain why some of them are much more resilient than others. To do so, the paper focuses on the recent, 2007–2009 economic crisis and computes a composite indicator (Resilience) made up of two sub-indicators: one for the recession period (Drop) and the other for the recovery period (Rebound). Then, it suggests some factors affecting resilience and, due to the presence of spatial dependence, applies a spatial econometric approach to assess them. The main conclusions are that the level of Resilience depends negatively on the shares of the construction and manufacturing sectors in GDP, and positively on the share of services and the openness degree. As for the Drop, it is important to stress that human capital emerges as a variable that has contributed to minimise the negative effect of the crisis.