Authors:Vivien Czeczeli, Gábor Kutasi, and Eszter Szabó
This study analyses the effectiveness of government incentives on household savings in Hungary prior to the Covid pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil. Time series pertaining to life insurance, voluntary pension savings, and long-term and short-term government bonds are tested in relation to government incentives. The novelty of this study is the test on complex mix of policy incentives and saving funds. The analysis applies the multiple breakpoint test and OLS regression, based on the behavioural life cycle hypothesis. The conclusion is that in the analysed time period the government incentives had a significant effect and promoted savings behaviour, with the exception of short-term government bonds.
This study compares the European country groups using economic, financial and health indicators in 2000 and 2015. The “Core” European Union (EU) countries, which are the main progenitors of the deterioration processes within the EU, have changed their cluster memberships from higher-order clusters to lower-order ones. Deposits in banks (assets) to GDP (%) and inflation at consumer prices (annual %) have played a leading role in the formation of EU country groups for 2000 and 2015. The study emphasized the importance of political cohesion and financial stance to mitigate European countries’ financial risks and welfare states.
This paper investigates the impacts of potential determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey through Markov Regime Switching-Vector Auto Regression (MS-VAR) estimations from 1999 to 2017 on monthly data. The determinants are income level, exchange rates and the threat of terror incidences. The terror variable, following the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2017 report, is calculated for Turkey by the author. This research has conducted two separate MS-VAR models to observe the relevant parameters’ signs of the demand for tourism function. Both MS-VAR models revealed that income level and exchange rates have positive influences on tourism while the terror threat has a negative impact on tourism in Turkey. Terror adversely affects the demand for tourism in the short-term in which terror has occurred in the nearest past (i.e., a month ago). The MS-VAR models also yield that a similar negative impact of terror on tourism activities does not appear over the longer periods.
Authors:Mahmut Ünsal Şaşmaz, Melissa Nihal Cagle, and Ahmet Özen
Researchers and practitioners alike have long debated the role of high GDP growth strategies and social expenditures (SE) in ensuring a better distribution of income and reduction of poverty. This study is aimed at investigating the effectiveness of social expenditures by offering the use of a robust methodology. Our sample consists of 27 EU countries (further divided into pre- and post-2000 members) between 2005 and 2017. We used panel data to determine whether social expenditures have a positive effect on the World Bank generated Human Development Index (HDI).
In order for monetary policy’s interest rate channel to operate smoothly and effectively, the relevant retail interest rates of the real economy should react quickly and follow the movements of the prime rate. It has been observed that this connection has weakened since the financial crisis and it was suggested that the so called Weighted Average Cost of Liabilities (WACL) might be a better proxy for the banks’ marginal costs than the prime rate or interbank rate. In this study the WACL for Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania is calculated by applying cointegration tests and ARDL models. I examined whether their long-run relationships with the retail loan rates are more stable. Results: 1. Using the WACL instead of the interbank rate yields slightly more stable long-term relationships with the retail loan rates, and the WACL has been proved to be somewhat more stable than the interbank rate. 2. The interest rate pass-through has been efficient for the household loan rates in all three countries, but only in Romania for the corporate loan rates. 3. The results suggest that the central banks can effectively influence the commercial banks’ financing costs even in a low interest rate environment, although this cost represents only one component of the loan rates, and the movements of other components can offset the changes of the prime rate.
U uvodu se daju temeljni podatci o genezi, rasprostiranju i podjeli kajkavskog narječja. Najbliže se činje- ničnom stanju o genezi kajkavskog narječja smatra mišljenje Z. Junkovića koji je smatrao da je kajkavski dijalekt pripadao panonskoj skupini zapadnoga južnoslavenskoga prajezika koju bi po njemu još spadali prleški, prekmurski i neki zapadnoštajerski govori. Osmanlijska osvajanja uzrokovala su velike migracije stanovništva prema sjeveru i zapadu, a stanovništvo koje ga je kasnije supstituiralo bilo je uglavnom s pod- ručja štokavskog narječja. Od mnogih podjela kajkavskog narječja apostrofira se ona Mije Lončarića koji ga je podijelio na 15 dijalekata.
U daljem dijelu rada prikazuju se neke najtipičnije jezične osobine kajkavskih govora na fonološkoj, mor- fološkoj i sintaktičkoj razini. Daju se primjeri minimalnih fonoloških parova između različitih istovrsnih samoglasnika o- ili e- kategorije u pojedinim kajkavskim govorima. U nekim govorima izgubljena je opreka po kvantiteti jer je u tim govorima, kako bi se nadoknadila razlikovna obilježja koja postoje u govorima gdje postoje te opreke, došlo do prefonologizacije prozodijskih suprasegmentalnih obilježja u segmentne. Eliminacija kvantitete važna je poveznica kajkavskog govora s istokom slavenskoga sjevera te poljskim i lužičkim jezicima.
Od morfoloških osobina posebno se ističe izricanje morfoloških kategorija s alternacijama samoglasni- ka u nekim dijalektima. Još se apostrofira čuvanje supina, gubitak vokativa, nepostojanje duge množine u A-deklinaciji i nestanak dvojine.
U zaključku se kaže da će većina opisa kajkavskih govora koji se u dijalektološkoj literaturi još uvijek navode kao sinkronijska činjenica vrlo brzo postati jezična dijakronija jer su kod većine ispitanika prisutni su znakovi procesa erozije govora koje navodi C. Hagège. Tih promjena ispitanici uglavnom nisu svjesni i oni su većinom još uvijek uvjereni da govore izvornom kajkavštinom, a ne interdijalektom u kojem je veći- na specifičnih osobina njihovih mjesnih govora reducirana. Zaključuje se da kajkavsko narječje ipak neće doživjeti svoj nestanak, već će nestati specifičnosti pojedinih skupina i mjesnih govora s trajno očuvanim „čvrstim dijelovima“.
The introduction provides basic data on the genesis, distribution, and division of the Kajkavian dialect. It is thought that the closest to the factual situation on the genesis of the Kajkavian dialect is the opinion of Z. Junković, who believed that the Kajkavian dialect belonged to the Pannonian group of the Western South Slavic proto-language, which according to him would still include the dialects of Prlekija, the dialect of Prekmurje as well as some West Styrian dialects. The Ottoman conquests caused large migrations of the population to the north and west, and the population that later replaced it was mainly from the area of the Štokavian dialect. Of the many divisions of the Kajkavian dialect, the one by Mijo Lončarić is usually em- phasized; it divides the Kajkavian dialect into 15 dialects.
The following part of the paper continues to present some of the most typical linguistic features of the Kajkavian vernaculars at the phonological, morphological, and syntactic level. Examples of minimal phono- logical pairs between different identical vowels of the o- or e-category in individual Kajkavian vernaculars are given. In some vernaculars, the opposition in quantity was lost because in these vernaculars, in order to compensate for the distinctive features that exist in vernaculars where these contradictions exist, the prosodic suprasegmental features were transformed into segmental ones. The elimination of quantity is an important link between the Kajkavian dialect and the east of the Slavic North as well as the Polish and the Lusatian language.
Among the morphological features, the pronunciation of morphological categories with vowel alterna- tions in some dialects stands out. The emphasis is on the preservation of the supine, the loss of the vocative, the absence of the long plural in the A-declension, and the disappearance of the dual.
In conclusion, it is said that most descriptions of Kajkavian vernaculars that are still cited in the dialec- tological literature as a synchronic fact will soon become linguistic diachrony because most respondents have signs of the vernacular erosion process cited by C. Hagège. Respondents are largely unaware of these changes and are mostly still convinced that they speak the original Kajkavian rather than an interdialect in which most of the specific characteristic features of their local dialects have been reduced. It is concluded that the Kajkavian dialect will not disappear but the specific features of individual groups and local dialects with permanently preserved “solid parts” will not be preserved.
János Kornai, the most distinguished Hungarian economist passed away on 18 October 2021. This short essay, written by a long-time disciple of Kornai tries to prioritize his scientific achievements spreading over six decades. The conclusion is that Kornai's most important contribution to the principles of economics was already presented in his 1971 book, entitled Anti-equilibrium, and without this book his most respected later works and his other original concepts, like the soft budget constraint or the shortage economy, cannot be understood.
Authors:Péter Ákos Bod, Orsolya Pócsik, and György Iván Neszmélyi
The enlargement of the euro area (EA), an unfinished process, was low on the European agenda in the period between the 2008 and the 2020 crises. The socio-economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and frictions in geopolitics would call for a coherent Europe, yet new and old fault-lines appeared in the EU involving the eastern periphery where sovereignty issues gained particular importance. The authors revisit the euro adoption process of the new member states, with a focus on the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, applying a two-track approach: a monetary policy analyses of EA entry as a rational cost/benefit issue and, second, a political economic survey of key stakeholders, set in the context of the dilemmas of retaining or sacrificing nominal monetary sovereignty. Even a piecemeal enlargement of the EA, involving Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania, would cause business consequences and political repercussions in the countries left out of EA. The paper concludes that further moves towards a developmental state model would preclude euro adoption and put such member state in collision course with the core Europe.