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Business and Economics
Abstract
The study of sub-systems tends to be a disadvantaged endeavour within the discipline of International Relations. While the global level of analysis attracts more attention, contradictions in assumptions embraced by IR surface most readily on the sub-systemic level. This was the case with ‘Regional Power Research’ (RPR), a systematic study of post-Cold War emerging powers. RPR conceptualised emerging powers as autonomous regional powers and hypothesised that they would provide security as a public good within their regions. None of RPR's hypotheses could be confirmed empirically. The paper first provides a historically contextualised insight into the assumption of anarchy underlying RPR's hypotheses, and deconstructs the concept of public goods. It then presents findings from a longitudinal qualitative content analysis of the 1990–2021 national security strategies issued by the United States. Findings show that the world order that prevailed when emerging powers rose was markedly hierarchic, precluding autonomous security provision, an inherently hierarchic endeavour, by sub-global powers. Emerging powers embraced adaptive strategies and the global distribution of capabilities shifted. Findings confirm the need to ground hypotheses in empiricism, realigning regional and global level power research to reflect the changing degrees and spatio-temporal distributions of anarchy and hierarchy in the international system.
Abstract
We propose a novel probability approach to examine the sustainability of the current account balance by generating density forecasts and calculating the probability that the current account balance will be lower than a specified threshold. We define a current account as sustainable by having a low probability of the current account deficit exploding. We use a vector autoregressive model to generate density forecasts up to five years ahead. We apply the method to ten countries that had high current account deficits in the past and find cases with both high and low probability of sustainability. We analyse historical episodes to illustrate the predictive capability of our framework and find that our method would have worked well in the past. We further find that the sustainability risk does not relate to whether the government or the private sector is the main driver of the deficit.
