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This paper presents a case-study to demonstrate the calculation methods of growth contributions using structural decompositions of input-output tables and their Hungarian applications. Although the required data are available with a considerable time-lag, results show that taking backward linkages through demand for inputs and value chain multipliers into account can significantly alter the picture on the growth effects of industries and final demand categories by the conventional approach based on quarterly GDP calculations. This can be instructive for analysts and policy- and decision-makers not only in Hungary, but also in other countries. The study was performed by using public macroeconomic and sectoral data obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office.

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Editor's Note: This essay paper of Professor Kornai with an unusually provoking title consists of two parts. Part I is the slightly edited, non-abridged version of his writing published as an oped in The Financial Times (FT) on 11 July 2019, the world's leading global business publication (Kornai 2019a). Subsequently, the full text of this paper was published in the Hungarian weekly magazine Élet és Irodalom (Life and Literature; Kornai 2019b), which in turn generated a number of commenting articles published in the same weekly. Still in the month of July, the original essay was translated into Chinese by a Hong Kong newspaper and into Vietnamese. An influential multilingual Chinese newspaper gave an extensive summary of the FT essay (Street 2019). The latter one, according to our best knowledge, was disseminated only on the internet. Part II is the translated and slightly edited version of Kornai's second article, published in September this year on the same topic (Kornai 2019c). In this second essay he responded to his critiques both in Hungary and world-wide. This piece was published in its original form in Hungarian by the previous mentioned Hungarian weekly. We, the Editors of Acta Oeconomica, are proud to publish the complete English translation of this second essay first time. We thank for the opportunity given to us by Professor Kornai to publish the Frankenstein-papers in an integrated form, together with all the necessary bibliographic references.

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Abstract

Recently, the middle-income trap (MIT) has gained considerable attention – besides European countries, several African, Asian, and Latin-American developing countries are also affected. Many countries have remained in the middle-income bracket for decades, whilst only a few have advanced to high-income status. Felipe et al. in 2012 showed that an annual growth rate of at least 3.5 and 4.7% sustained for a period of 14 and 28 years is required respectively for upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries to escape the MIT. Economic growth is influenced by several factors including foreign aid received. Thus, in this study, we aim to answer the question of how aid affects economic growth in middle-income countries and whether aid may contribute to escaping the MIT. Focusing on the countries that have remained in the middle-income group between 1990 and 2017, our analysis confirms that aid contributes to economic growth; however, the impact is positive in the upper-middle-income countries and negative in the lower-middle-income countries. Aid is therefore, likely to be more effective in helping the upper-middle income countries to escape the MIT but not the lower-middle income countries.

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of banks’ sovereign debt exposures on the financial development of Turkey. Results of the bounds test reveal a long-run and negative equilibrium relationship between banks’ domestic claims on sovereign and financial development, while Granger causality tests display a unidirectional causation from domestic debt to financial depth. Furthermore, stochastic frontier estimations provide evidence for the existence of cost inefficiency channel from government debt portfolios to financial development. The results suggest a need for more conscientious fiscal policy and country specific prudential regulation design for the financial development of Turkey.

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The progress of post-socialist systemic transformation should be evaluated through the prism of its influence on a country’s development abilities. During twenty years of comprehensive systemic shift, gross domestic product has increased only to a limited degree, on a par with the growth of the world economy. While judging the transformation progress, not only the improvement of competitiveness and growth in terms of quantity must be taken into account, but also social and cultural aspects. Had there been a better policy co-ordination of systemic change and socio-economic development, GDP could have increased by a considerable amount more. This opportunity has been missed due to the implementation of sub-optimal if not just wrong economic policies based on wrong economic theories and the lack of ability of the ruling elites to overrun the conflicts of interests.

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The paper analyses the impact of the factors of production on economic growth in Poland in the years 1992–2012, with particular focus on the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), and strives to verify whether a causality relationship occurred between GDP and FDI, i.e. whether high GDP dynamics attracted FDI inflows and whether this investment contributed to GDP growth. The Vector Error Correction Method impulse responses and variance decomposition analysis confirmed the bi-directional relationships between FDI and GDP in Poland. However, the impact of GDP on attracting FDI inflows to Poland is stronger than that of FDI on GDP growth. Polish developmental policy should concentrate on three essential determinants (pillars) of growth, namely employment growth, attracting FDI (with emphasis on improvement in the type of inflowing investment), and increasing the value and productivity of domestic investment.

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Over 1.8 billion people — from Central Europe to East Asia — have been involved in the great systemic transformation to market economy, civic society and democracy, lasting already a generation. The process has evolved more by chance than by design, and has brought mixed fruits. The diversification of the current situation is a result of both the legacy from the past and the different strategies and policies executed in particular countries over subsequent periods. These polices have been based on different assumptions and followed the advises of alternative schools of economic thought. Consequently, there are theoretical lessons to learn, as well as policy implications, from this vast experience. The paper, written from the comparative perspective and exercising counterfactual history analyses of the multi-track process of the great Post-Communist change during the last two decades, provides some forecasts and propositions for the next generation.

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A greenhouse experiment was conducted to understand the seedling germination behaviour and growth of sorghum genotypes, to investigate genotypic differences between sorghum genotypes and to identify a selection method for seedling drought resistance studies in sorghum under variable soil moisture deficit conditions. The experimental design used was a split plot design with four soil moisture deficit treatments (25%, 45%, 65% and 85% of field capacity) as main plot treatments and five sorghum genotypes (76 T1 #23, (148xE-35-1)-1-4-1xcs 3541 drive-5-3-2, M36121, 12x34/F4/3/E/1 and IS2284) as subplot treatments. Sorghum genotypes differed significantly in response to variable soil moisture deficit for percentage germination, seedling shoot dry weight, specific root length and seedling leaf area. The percentage germination of all genotypes was markedly reduced by increasing the levels of soil moisture deficits. Among the genotypes 76 T1 #23, M36121 and IS2284 had a satisfactory percentage germination at 25% of field capacity (F.C.), ranging from 55–57% germination based on arc sin transformed data. The seedling shoot dry weight of all genotypes was also significantly (p<0.05) reduced at all levels of soil moisture deficits, except in IS2284 where there was an increase of 3.6% at 65% of F.C. relative to the control. Although the interaction effects for seedling shoot and root lengths were not significant, IS2284 had the longest seedling shoot and root lengths and this is a desirable trait related to drought resistance. It has been observed that the reduction in seedling shoot length was greater than that of seedling root length at all levels of soil moisture deficit treatments, indicating that extensive root growth under drought conditions is a major avoidance mechanism in sorghum. Genotypes were also found to have differential responses to variable soil moisture deficits for their specific root length and leaf area. Based on the results of this study, percentage germination, seedling shoot dry weight, specific root length and seedling leaf area may be used as potential selection criteria for seedling drought resistance studies in sorghum and further studies are required to confirm this result under field conditions.

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, Bologna, 57 pp. http://www.scienzemfn.uniroma1.it/faunait/F43 . DOC [Accessed 4/X/2006.] Dobreanu, E. and Manolache, C. (1962): Homoptera Psylloidea. Fauna Republicii Populare Romine Insecta. vol. 8. Editura

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