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Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure of exports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetary policy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examines the degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’ business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamics vis-à-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusing in particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since the inception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro area member states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro area cycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to the euro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclical correlations.

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The global crisis of 2007–2009 can be viewed as three interdependent and mutually reinforcing crises: a financial crisis, a liquidity crisis, and a crisis in the real economy. The ten East European countries that are now EU members were hit first by the global liquidity crisis, then by dramatic declines in capital inflows and plunging demand for their exports. Different impacts among the ten are explained by such factors as their exchange rate regimes, the extent to which households found it advantageous to rely on foreign-currency loans and the appropriateness of fiscal and monetary policies prior to the crisis. Since Western Europe’s recovery and growth are likely to be slow, in the future East European countries will have to rely relatively more on internally-generated sources of productivity growth and enhanced global competitiveness.

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This paper identifies and analyses the impact of European integration on the structure and characteristics of the modern monetary law, with a special emphasis on the characteristics of the monetary system of Serbia. A particular problem with monetary sovereignty analysis is the external effects, which are reflected in the EMU attempt to expand its authority over the territory of the Member States. This is particularly evident in the case of the candidate countries, which must harmonize their financial legislations with the acquis communautaire. Monetary policy is fully centralized at the European Union level, so Serbian lawmakers must make the necessary derogations of monetary standards in order to facilitate future accession to EMU – primarily the provisions Law of Central Bank, Law on Public Debt Management and the Foreign Exchange Act.

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://english.mnb.hu/Root/Dokumentumtar/MNB/A_jegybank/kozerdeku_informaciok/tevekenysegre_mukodesre_adatok/mnbhu_szerv_alaptevekenyseg_hataskor/MNB_tv_EN.pdf Benati, L. — Goodhart, C. (2008): Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record, 1979–2008. http://www.citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download Goodhart C

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. Barro, R. - Gordon, D. (1983): Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 12: 101-121. Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy

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7 33 Shambaugh, J. C. (2004): The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy. Quarterly Journal of Economics , 119(1): 301

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guidance during the completion of this research. References Angeloni , I. – Kashyap , A. K. – Mojon , B. ( 2003 ): Monetary Policy Transmission in the

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Working Paper, No. 4. Bernanke , B., Gertler , M. ( 1995 ): Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission

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Monetary Policy? Journal of Economic Perspectives , 11 ( 2 ): 97 – 116 . Brito , R. D. – Bystedt , B. ( 2010 ): Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: Panel Evidence . Journal

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. Cecchetti , S. G. — Groshen , E. L. ( 2000 ): Understanding Inflation: Implications for Monetary Policy . NBER Working Papers , No., 7482 , January. EC ( 1998 ): On Harmonization of Consumer Price Indices in the European

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