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A fizetett munkavállalás hatása a felsőoktatási hallgatók egyetemi pályafutására +
The Impact of Paid Work on University Careers among Higher Education Student
while Studying on the Academic and Labour Market Performance of Graduates: The Joint Role of Work Intensity and Job-Field Match . https://www.aiel.it/cms/cms-files/submission/all20160608164320.pdf
Hazai népesedési folyamatok az elmúlt évtizedben
Population trends in Hungary in the last decade with an outlook
Összefoglalás.
Elemzésünk célja, hogy bemutassuk azokat a népesedési folyamatokat, amelyek az elmúlt évtizedben a népesség jelentős fogyását okozzák, és aminek eredményeként a jövőbeli népesedési folyamatok alakulnak. Vizsgálatainkat és értelmezéseinket a három népesedési komponens, a termékenység, halandóság, illetve a nemzetközi vándorlás mentén végezzük. Az elemzésből kiderül, hogy évszázadunk második évtizedében a népességfogyás legfőbb tényezője a halálozási veszteség volt, de a népességfogyást a nemzetközi vándorlás negatív egyenlege is érdemben növelte. A születések és a halálozások száma közötti különbség 1981 óta fennáll; a természetes fogyás előbb a születésszám csökkenése, majd az évtized végén a Covid–19 járvány miatt nőtt. A negatív vándorlási egyenleget főképpen a német és az osztrák munkaerőpiaci nyitás növelte meg. A jelenlegi korszerkezetet figyelembe véve az előreszámítások a népesség további csökkenését vetítik előre.
Summary.
The aim of our analysis is to present the population trends that have caused the significant population decline in the last decade in Hungary and that will determine the future Hungarian population in terms of numbers and composition. Our analyses and interpretations are carried out along the three population components: fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration. The analysis reveals that in the second decade of our century, the main factor of population decline was mortality loss, but that the negative balance of international migration also contributed significantly to population decline.
Natural reproduction (births minus deaths) has been negative in Hungary since 1981. In the period following the change of regime, natural increase increased from -1.9 per thousand births in 1990 to -4.1 per thousand in 2003, due to a decline in the birth rate. In the decade between 2010 and 2020, it ranged between -3.5 and -4.1, reaching -6.4 per thousand in the second year of the Covid-19 (2022).
The number of birth, which although fluctuated somewhat between 2010 and 2020, but was essentially stagnating, is the result of two opposite processes. On the one hand, the propensity to have children, measured by the total fertility rate, has been steadily increasing. On the other hand, the number of women of childbearing age, including women aged 20-39 who are of prime childbearing age, has been steadily declining.
An important feature of the pre-pandemic period was the slowdown in mortality improvement. The negative trend was observed in both EU countries and in our country, affecting both men and women. The age-specific look highlighted slowdown among middle-aged (30-59 years) man and women, and the improvement in mortality has declined also among younger elderly people (60-79 years). The stagnation in the number of deaths in Hungary was both a consequence of an ageing age structure and a reduction in the improvement in life expectancy. This stagnation was replaced by a rapid increase in mortality with the emergence of the Covid-19 epidemic. Our analysis revealed that during the pandemic the mortality risk for men was higher than that for women, and surprisingly the slope of the age-specific mortality risks were very similar to age-specific mortality risks before the epidemic.
Hungary’s net migration was positive for a long time after the regime change, then turned negative shortly before the decade under review, with the number of people leaving the country exceeding the number of people arriving. The main reason that after the opening of the Austrian and German labour markets in 2011, outmigration, especially labour emigration rapidly increase among Hungarians according to ‘mirror statistics’. Noteworthy, Hungarian outmigration is among the lowest compared to the new EU states. A new development is that significant “return migration” trends can be observed at the end of the decade.
At the end, as a summary, three population scenarios are presented, the most likely baseline scenario, the high fertility scenario and the zero net migration scenario. The baseline scenario shows that by 2050 the population size will fall to 8.5 million, which corresponds to a 13% decline over roughly three decades. The age structure will also change radically; while in 2019 the share of people aged 65 and over is 14.5%, in 2050 it will be 27.5%, i.e. more than a quarter of the population will be aged 65 and over.
A megújuló energiahordozók közül Magyarországon a biomassza nyújtja az egyik legígéretesebb lehetőséget a fosszilis energiaforrások részleges kiváltására. Jelen tanulmányban az elméleti gazdaságtan, a statisztika és a társadalomtudományok eszköztárával elemezzük a biomassza munkaerőpiacát. A munkaerő-piaci kereslet nem minden esetben egyezik meg a kínálattal. A szűkülő lehetőségek következtében a biomassza népességmegtartó képessége sem érvényesül minden esetben. A magyar piacon szakemberhiány van, így a kvalifikált alkalmazottak naponta ingáznak otthonuk és munkahelyük között. Ennek oka elsősorban abban rejlik, hogy az oktatási rendszer nem képes kellő arányban kinevelni magasan képzett, ökoenergetikai ismeretekkel rendelkező szakembereket. A lokális munkaerőt igénylő szántóföldi munka a képzetlen munkaerő számára jelenthet egyfajta kitörési lehetőséget. A munkaerő-piaci diszkrimináció – amely a kék-, valamint a fehérgalléros alkalmazottakat egyaránt érinti – és az oktatási rendszer hiányosságai egyértelműen a paradigmaváltás szükségességét irányozzák elő. A 2011–2012-es reformok ez idáig nem hoztak számottevő változást az ökoenergetika számára, így kiemelkedően fontos lenne a megújuló energiaforrások hasznosításával foglalkozó szakok arányának növelése. Amennyiben az intézmények átszervezésén kívül nem történik lényegi, gondolkodásmódbeli változás, feltehetően a biomassza-alapú energiatermelés sem fogja elérni a kívánt szintet. A biomasszapiac nem érvényesülhet szárnyaló mezőgazdasági ágazat nélkül.
government to ‘export’ its apprenticeship system to different areas of the world. She presents some obstacles of the transfer, as incompatibility with existing education system, or lack of linkage with labour market needs. She recalls several studies
Az automatizáció és a digitalizáció az autóiparban
Automation and Digitalisation in the Automotive Industry
Change, Working Paper No. 2022-2. Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Oxford University. 6 Illéssy, M., Huszár, Á. & Makó, Cs. (2021) Technological Development and the Labour Market: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Automation in
The study investigates the digital divide concerning computer literacy in Hungary. It examines the differences of computer literacy of people with different social-demographic characteristics (gender, settlement type, education, labor market presence and income). It also investigates the intentions to learn computer skills. In this respect, smaller differences have been found then in the case of actual knowledge, which predicts the narrowing down of digital divide in the future. An attempt has been made to identify the institutional, technical and primordial conditions in everyday life that may influence both computer literacy and inclination to master the computer, and hence may function as “bridges” over the digital divide. Four of these factors have been studied: access to computers at the workplace, public internet access at the settlement, communication via cellular phone and effect of the family members' ITC knowledge. Statistical analysis and in-depth interviews were used as methods of examination. Based on logistic regression models it was found that the bridging factors exert weak or insignificant influence on the willingness to learn computer skills - if they are controlled - so these factors alone are insufficient to bridge the digital divide.
This article presents the findings of a qualitative research project which aimed to map out the political evaluations and the social effects of the changing concept of family and the changing forms of family life. By interviewing political and economic decision-makers we intended to highlight the goals and the motives of the differenct family policy approaches, the characteristic features of the family concepts reflected by the policy-makers' decisions, as well as the relationship between state family policies and labor market policies on the one hand, and equal treatment expectations concerning both genders, on the other. On the basis of interviews conducted with ordinary people we examined how much people's lives are practically infuenced by the family policy measures introduced by the political and the economic decision makers. According to our findings the two different categories of respondents saw specific family policy issues in different ways - however, their interpretations of family policy as a whole were rather convergent. The importance of providing equality of opportunity for men and women, increasing the female employment rate, acknowledging the plurality of family lifestyles, reconciling work and family life - being European expectations as well as conditions of a worthy life - seemed to be overshadowed by the demographic issues of fertility and procreation.
The purpose of this analysis is to shed light on distribution of poverty within the social structure. Using comparable national survey data from Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Hungary we determine to what extent social determinants of poverty observed in the capitalist West are also at work in the specific context of East European societies. Second area of inquiry, here, concerns the formation of the uinderclass. In searching for a post-communist underclass this analysis attemps to figure out the social location of the poor relative to positions occupied by intelligentsia, other non-manual categories, working class, peasants, and owners. The districtive characteistics of the Western underclass are labor market detachment, social isolatio, and material seprivation. Using discrimination analysis we examine the placement of the poor within the social structure relative to ovvupationally based class categories. This analysis shows that in multidimensional space as defined in terms of social origin, educational achievements, housing conditions, material possessions, and ethnicity there is no significant differences between the poor and ocupationally-based class categories in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Poland. contrariwise, significant distinctions of this kind appear in Romania, Slovakia and Russia. In interpretation of these findings we seek to answer the question whether after decade of political and economic transformations, unique features of poverty in Eastern Europe tend to intermingle with universal patterns.
educational system or on the labor market, they often choose to give up her Roma/Gypsy identity. That means, they do not consider themselves to be a member of the Roma/Gypsy community, and inversely. This theory is formulated in one type of “underclass theory
efforts in line with labour market needs. The book demonstrates that it seeks to address the new challenges facing education systems in the 21st century, using a theoretical, research and practical approach to education. One of the focuses of the work is
