This paper studies the global, regional, and country-specific components of four key financial market indicators: sovereign CDS spreads, equity indices, exchange rates, and EMBI Global bond spreads. In all four markets, the results support the findings of the literature of a significant global component, but also point out the importance of regional correlations. Variance decompositions point to roughly a third of variance explained by both global and country-specific components in each of the four analysed financial markets, although there is considerable cross-country heterogeneity in this respect. The global factors of indicators are correlated across asset classes, but the market- and country-specific components of indicators are still significantly large to suggest diversification benefits of both multi-asset and multi-country portfolios. An application of the factor model suggests that the link between Central Eastern European and Euro zone periphery markets is stronger and more direct in the case of equity indices than in the case of sovereign CDS spreads.
The global crisis of 2007–2009 can be viewed as three interdependent and mutually reinforcing crises: a financial crisis, a liquidity crisis, and a crisis in the real economy. The ten East European countries that are now EU members were hit first by the global liquidity crisis, then by dramatic declines in capital inflows and plunging demand for their exports. Different impacts among the ten are explained by such factors as their exchange rate regimes, the extent to which households found it advantageous to rely on foreign-currency loans and the appropriateness of fiscal and monetary policies prior to the crisis. Since Western Europe’s recovery and growth are likely to be slow, in the future East European countries will have to rely relatively more on internally-generated sources of productivity growth and enhanced global competitiveness.
Looking back to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, Hungary was among the first countries to be forced to make use of financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. The government, the MNB (the central bank of Hungary) as well as the domestic and foreign analysts cited the high public debt and the volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the crises. Though these were real weaknesses, this diagnosis was false as much as the following treatment. First and foremost, it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary to request outside financial assistance.
The excessive fiscal tightening urged by the MNB only led to deepening of the crises. In general, the macropolicy – both fiscal and monetary policy – before, during and after the crises turned out to be painfully pro-cyclical. Due to the lack of sufficient reserves, the MNB became virtually powerless to intervene and could only watch from the side-lines as events unfolded. The orthodox mind-set after replenishing the forex reserves prevented it from implementing a broad scale of unconventional measures to ease the crises. The fiscal authority lost its capacity long before to reduce the severity of the crises. Thus, the excessive and incorrect structure of fiscal correction coupled with an unjustified orthodox monetary policy, the contraction of the Hungarian economy went much beyond the inevitable amount.
The main goal of this paper is a quantitative identification of bear market periods during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis in the case of the Visegrad Group stock markets. We analyse four countries, namely Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia and, for comparison, the US stock market. The sample period begins on May1, 2004, and ends on April 30, 2013, i.e. it includes the 2007 US subprime crisis. We use the statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. Our results reveal October 2007–February 2009 as the common downmarket period of the recent global financial crisis, except for Slovakia. It is instructive to formally identify crises, as it enables sensitivity analyses of various relationships and linkages among international stock markets using econometric and statistical tools, with respect to the pre-, post- and crisis periods. Moreover, we investigate the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period, applying both standard contemporaneous correlations and volatility-adjusted correlation coefficients. The results confirm that accommodating heteroskedasticity is critical for detecting contagion across economies. A number of studies document that crossmarket correlations vary over time, thereby making the benefits of international portfolio choice and diversification questionable.
The sovereign debt crisis of 2010 in the euro area significantly decelerated the monetary integration of the EU. The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether five post-communist member states of the EU are mature enough to adopt the euro. We used nominal exchange rates in the error correction model with asymmetric power ARCH (ECM-APARCH). Our results highlight that EU membership positively increased the impact of the euro on the currency of each of these countries in the short-run. In contrast, the long-term effect of the euro on each currency is negative for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Croatia. Wholly different results were obtained for Poland and Romania. The APARCH model showed that the negative responses of the euro had a greater or neutral effect on the conditional variance of each currency instead of the positive responses. The debt crisis of the euro area had no impact on the dynamic linkages between the currencies. Our research concludes that Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are not ready to join the euro area in the near future. On the other hand, the currencies of Poland and Romania are already aligned with the fluctuations of the euro.
Authors:F. Tagliaferro, E. De Nadai Fernandes, P. Bode, and H. Baas
The degree of homogeneity is normally assessed by the variability of the results of independent analyses of several (e.g.,
15) normal-scale replicates. Large sample instrumental neutron activation analysis (LS-INAA) with a collimated Ge detector
allows inspecting the degree of homogeneity of the initial batch material, using a kilogram-size sample. The test is based
on the spatial distributions of induced radioactivity. Such test was applied to samples of Brazilian whole (green) coffee
beans (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) of approximately 1 kg in the frame of development of a coffee reference material. Results indicated that the material do
not contain significant element composition inhomogeneities between batches of approximately 30–50 g, masses typically forming
the starting base of a reference material.
Genotype selection based on multiple traits in multi-years is frequently influenced by unpredictable rainfed conditions. The main objective of the study was to apply the new methodology of genotype by yield*trait (GYT) biplot for genotype selection and trait profiles in durum wheat genotypes based on multi-traits and multi-year data under rainfed conditions of Iran. A superiority index was applied based on GYT table for ranking of genotypes by the mean of all traits. The GYT biplot ranked the genotypes based on their levels in combining yield with other key traits. Grain yield was combined with target traits and showed the strengths and weaknesses of each genotype. Based on GYT-biplots the relationships among the studied traits were not repeatable across years, but they facilitated visual genotype comparisons and selection. The breeding lines G13, G10 and G15 ranked as the best in combination of the morph-physiological traits i.e., SPAD-reading, early heading, flag-leaf length and number of grain per spike with grain yield under rainfed conditions. The results indicate that there is a potential for simultaneous improvement of some characteristics of durum wheat under rainfed conditions. The GYT biplot was a useful tool for exploring the combination of yield with traits and trait profiles of the durum genotypes to obtain high genetic gains in the durum breeding programs.
Drought is the major cause of durum wheat yield losses in the Mediterranean and many other regions where the crop is not normally irrigated. Over three years (2010–13), 24 durum wheat genotypes representing diverse genetic materials were tested under drought and irrigated conditions. The main objectives were to assess the degree of genotypic variation for drought tolerance, characterize genotypic differences in response to drought, and identify sources of germplasm with greater drought tolerance than old and new cultivars. The percent reduction in average grain yield under drought conditions as compared to irrigated conditions was maximum (69%) during 2012–13, followed by 2010–2011 (33%) and 2011–2012 (15%). The average yields of genotypes under drought conditions differed significantly, which ranged from 1174 (correspond to old variety) to 2086 kg/ha (correspond to breeding line G2). The maximin-minimax approach, yield tolerance index (YTI) and three-dimensional (3-D) plot were used to classify genotypes for drought tolerance and yield productivity. Based on the results, two genotypes were identified as resistant and high yielding (G3 and G20), and eight genotypes (G2, G22, G8, G11, G15, G1, G9 and G5) were found to be high yielding and tolerant to drought conditions. Among the methods, the maximin–minimax approach appears to be more useful in identifying high yielding and drought tolerant genotypes as it seeks to minimize percentage yield loss while maximizing yield potential. In conclusion, considerable variability in yield and drought tolerance was observed for the durum wheat genotypes, which could be exploited at improving drought tolerance in durum wheat breeding program.
-ezetimib kombináció?] Metabolizmus, 2013, 11 (Suppl. G), 1–5. [Hungarian]
Simonyi, G.: Significance of patient adherence in lipid lowering therapy – advantage of fixed combination. [A beteg együttműködés jelentősége a