Ferenc Jánossy was the most important Hungarian pioneer of surveys on long time series. In the 1960s he devised the famous theory of trendlines, which allowed him to forecast the great world economic recession of the 1970s a decade in advance. The best-known international authority on compiling historical time series is Angus Maddison, who prepared time series of the main demographic and macroeconomic indicators for 56 countries, from 1820 to the present day. Both scientists, whose survey method showed both a historical and a quantitative approach, reached the conclusion that human capital is the most important of production factors for securing long-term economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to compare their results with the latest development, which is known as the “new growth theory”.
Analysis into the sources of lower levels of national productivities between Central and Eastern European economies and the European Union is scarce and lacks comparability. These sources are assessed by analysing the role played by sectoral structures. After providing a brief overview of comparative levels of economy-wide labour productivity between the EU-15 average, selected EU cohesion countries and the EU accession countries of Estonia, Poland, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Slovenia, a quantitative account of the sectoral content of the national productivity gap is calculated. The paper develops a method to calculate the explanatory power of patterns of sectoral structures for the size of the productivity gap by hypothetically applying average EU-15 sectoral patterns on Central and Eastern European economies’ sectoral productivities. Subsequently, the respective roles of individual sectors in explaining the national productivity gaps are calculated by assigning weights to sectoral productivity gaps relative to their employment shares. These results are then carefully assessed in terms of potentials and prospects for swift and complete productivity catch-up and in terms of the most efficient policies to assist productivity convergence.
Authors:M. Jurše, K. Logožar, M. Ključevšek, and R. Korez-Vide
In the emerging process of market globalisation, firms’ strategic options for optimising their cross-border operations have broadened. This paper presents a strategic framework for developing an appropriate strategic response of firms by relocating their production facilities and framing their operational procedures in such a way that they may, as eligible beneficiaries, exploit institutional incentive mechanisms available in a specific region or a host country. More specifically, in the paper we explore a strategic option for lowering firms’ operational costs through international operations by using the mechanism of diagonal cumulation of origin introduced by the European Union (EU) in its Common Commercial Policy towards selected non-member countries. Despite extensive discussions in theoretical literature on the conception of the rules of origin, only a few studies have explored the implications of this mechanism from the perspective of a firm’s transaction costs in international business. This paper shows that the ‘SAP+ diagonal cumulation of origin,’ when properly conceived and implemented by a firm, can positively affect its financial performance. By analysing the cost-effect simulation of a selected household appliance producer in the presented case study, we then discuss the key strategic and operational implications for firms wishing to take advantage of offered supranational institutional incentive mechanisms.
The consultative referendum held on June 23, 2013, showed that a majority of British voters are in favour of leaving the EU. Markets reacted and adapted, and politics made the first steps towards a UK outside the EU and an EU without Britain. This paper looks at the expected effects of Brexit in different fields: political and social effects, consequences for production and trade, and financial and fiscal effects. It then presents the institutional process of leaving the EU, stressing its indeterminacy, and considers the first steps undertaken so far. It concludes that the EU negotiation position is weak because of its internal problems and calls for the priority given in reforming the EU.
The euro crisis and its lessons are still not a closed chapter for economists and policy makers. The challenge to find the most appropriate ways to prevent intra-area imbalances is still on the top of the agenda. Nominal adjustment (internal devaluation) remains one of the most critical aspects of this debate. Many are indeed interested in whether austerity measures in several countries “made sense.” But much more is at stake here than evaluating the past. The true question is whether the eurozone can rely on nominal adjustment to align internal economic fluctuations. This paper contributes to the answer by investigating the size of price changes and their impacts on output and trade in the wake of the euro crisis. Selecting the most appropriate variables to measure competitive outcomes, the basic idea of “expansionary contraction” is tested. We rely on a comprehensive panel of all Eurozone member states in the post-crisis years (2010–2017). The results suggest that flexible price levels cannot be taken for granted, and a link to competitiveness is not self-evident, either. Other channels of adjustment may prove to be more important, but scaling them up will ultimately require a sound consensus on the future architecture of the euro.
In the early and mid-2000s, the prospect of EU accession and the global boom facilitated rapid economic recovery and boosted economic and institutional reforms in the Western Balkan region. The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the European crisis of 2010–2013 slowed the pace of economic growth and amplified high unemployment in the region. In addition, various unresolved legacies from past conflicts slowed the pace of reform and progress towards EU accession.
The European Commission’s February 2018 communication sets an indicative deadline (2025) for the two most advanced candidates – Serbia’s and Montenegro’s admission to the EU. This could incentivise all Western Balkan countries, including those candidates that have not yet started membership negotiations (Macedonia and Albania) and those waiting for candidate status (Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo), to remove domestic political obstacles to EU accession, solve conflicts with neighbours, speed up reforms and accelerate economic growth.
At the onset of the mass protests in 2010–2011, many politicians and experts suggested that Arab countries could learn from the experiences of the post-communist transition of the early 1990s. However, the geopolitical, historical, and socio-economic context of the Arab transition was different in many respects from that of the former Soviet bloc countries 20 years earlier. These differences became even more obvious five years later, in early 2016, when most Arab transition attempts ended either in a new wave of authoritarianism, or protracted bloody conflicts. Nonetheless, there are some common lessons to be learnt from the history of both transitions. They concern interrelations between the political and economic transition, the role of institutional checks and balances and the rule of law, the speed of reforms, the dangers of ethnic and sectarian conflicts, and the role of external support.
Authors:Pál Patay, Miklós Szabó, Tibor Kemenczei, Krisztina Szirmai, Etele Kiss, and Imre Holl
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A systematic non-destructive determination of eighteen trace elements (F, Na, Cl, Sc, Mn, Zn, Br, Sr, I, Ba, La, Ce, Sm, Eu,
Tb, Yb, Th and U) in carbonate samples by thermal neutron activation analysis was developed. Three 0.2–0.5g samples were irradiated
for 15 sec (in the case of determination of F), for 3 min (in the case of Na, Cl, Mn, Sr and I) and for 60 hrs (in the case
of Sc, Zn, Br, Ba, La, Ce, Sm, Eu, Tb, Yb, Th and U) in the TRIGA MARK II Reactor at a thermal neutron flux of 5·1011 n·cm−2·sec−1 (15 sec and 3 min irradiation) and 1.5·1012n·cm−2·sec−1 (60 hrs irradiation), respectively. According to the half life of the nuclides formed, the activities were measured with
a Ge(Li) spectrometer as follows,20F∶15 sec counting after 20–25 sec cooling,24Na,38Cl,56Mn,87mSr and128I∶600 sec couting after 30–120 min cooling,82Br,140La,153Sm,175Yb and239Np (daughter of239U)∶3000 sec counting after 1 week cooling,46Sc,65Zn,131Ba,141Ce,152Eu,160Tb and233Pa (daughter of233Th)∶5000 sec counting after 1 month cooling. The errors due to the fluctuation of the neutron flux and the counting geometry
were minimized by the use of calcium determined previously with EDTA-titration as an internal standard. The interferences
from24Mg(n, p)24Na and235U(n, fission) reactions were corrected by the activities produced by the reactions in unit weight of magnesium and uranium,
and their concentrations in samples measured experimentally. The data of Na, Mn, Zn and Sr were compared with the results
obtained by atomic absorption analysis.