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The paper aims to develop a model of nonlinear economic growth — with simple assumptions — which explains both Japan’s S -shape convergence path and the UK’s declining path toward the US between 1870–2000, and the development of other countries, as well as post-war reconstruction. According to the model, progress in stock of knowledge is formed by a quadratic formula of the relative development of follower countries.The model draws on four recent theories. Firstly, Romer’s theory, which approaches a country’s level of development by using the number of its products (Romer 1990), secondly, Jones’ idea theory with a slight modification (Jones 2004), third, the theory of quality of institutions, which determines economic performance (North 1993), and finally, the theory of physical and human capital. The first part of the paper sets up the production function, the second determines the growth rate and analyses the reconstruction path, while the third draws up model forecasts.

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. ( 2002 ): Heteroskedasticity and Non-Monotonicity Efficiency Effects of a Stochastic Frontier Model . Journal of Productivity Analysis , 18 ( 3 ): 241 – 253 . Weill , L

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. (2007): Is Convergence Rate Monotonic?. Acta Oeconomica , 57(3):247–261. Tarján T. Is Convergence Rate Monotonic? Acta Oeconomica

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Marchese, S., and de Simone, F. N. (1989): Monotonicity of Indices of Revealed Comparative Advantage: Empirical Evidence on Hillman's Condition. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 125 : 158-167. Monotonicity of Indices of Revealed

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regression splines ( Wood 1994 ) constrained so that each curve is monotonically increasing above age x = 65. This monotonicity constraint allows us to reduce the noise in the estimated curves for high ages ( Hyndman – Ullah 2007 ). The main innovation of the

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Congress. In the case of Iowa, the examined indexes behaved similarly in these periods, the 107th showed the best, while 108th worst results. In Arkansas LSI and PPT decreased monotonically while RT and M had a peak at the 108th. Remarkably, M was

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expenditures, and concluded that Barro model-style “growth hills” are present for U.S. states, which means that the incremental effect of tax-financed expenditures on productive government activities is non–monotonic and initially positive (a positive linear

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