This paper looks at how the parameters for real option analysis can be extracted from the general capital budget of a project and discusses how the estimated cash flows of a general project can be used for a real option analysis. A project is described where it is possible to stop the business operation in case of predicting a loss for the next year. Our model shows how the cash flow of the period influenced by the option-like decision has to be separated in order to get the exercise price and the price of the underlying asset for real option valuation. Besides providing arguments against the suitability of the general Black-Scholes formula for real option situations, the paper also shows how Margrabe's exchange option valuation formula may be used, and how the volatility as a parameter of this model can be calculated from the data available about the project.
Erwin Schrödinger’s Cat model is a thought experiment from quantum mechanics to visualise “neither dead, nor alive” types of transitional situations. This essay draws certain parallels between this Cat and the Brexit process. A process that has been initiated but, in a strictly legal sense, not yet unleashed. It might be officially launched one day by the UK government, but without any certainty as to whether it would be completed at all. There seems to be no trade policy model, which would be optimal for both sides: keeping the UK within the Single European market for goods and capital, while introducing constraints on the free flow of labour is not a real option. A possible strategy for both parties may be procrastination: declaring that Brexit is underway, but maintaining the pre-2016 conditions of economic co-operation and integration, prolonging the current Cat-like situation.