This paper revisits the empirical trade literature on East-West trade in the early 1990s and provides a replication of the traditional gravity findings of that period with the Baier-Bergstrand version of the model, providing thereby better estimates of the trade hindering impact of the Cold War by including multilateral and world resistance factors and simultaneously considering country fixed effects. Breaking down the Cold War Walls increased world trade by 2.7% of world GDP. The replication with the Baier-Bergstrand model also reveals that Cold War trade distortions also significantly impacted China’s trade with the West.
Authors:Jovan Njegić, Dejan Živkov, and Jelena Damnjanović
This paper strives to investigate the level of business cycles synchronisation between 8 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and the EU-15. We use wavelet coherence and phase difference methodology as a very suitable tool that observes simultaneously the strength of business cycles’ co-movement in the aspect of time as well as in the aspect of frequency. The results indicate that the business cycles of CEECs are generally synchronised with the EU-15 business cycles, whereas distinct differences existed before, during, and after the financial crisis (2008–2009) and during the European sovereign debt crisis (2010–2011). In other words, we demonstrate that very strong business cycles synchronisation occurred in almost all CEECs during crisis periods and at higher wavelet scales, while only moderate synchronisation is recorded in relatively tranquil periods at higher frequencies. The results suggest that smaller CEECs, but also larger countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, and to some extent Slovakia as well have a higher level of business cycles synchronisation with the EU-15, particularly in the crisis period at short-run as well as at long-run fluctuations. However, we do not find strong business cycles co-movement in cases of Poland and Latvia via HP and BP filters at higher frequencies during the crisis, which might indicate a higher resistance of these countries to external systemic shocks.
. Via expansionary monetary policies the demand for government bonds increases. Thus, the governments can indebt itself to a much higher degree than without the monetary inflation. 11 This allows the governments to ignore fiscal resistance to increased
important against repeated incidents of massive unrests and other forms of anti-communist resistance (most of them on a socio-economic ground), for example, in the East Germany in 1953, in Hungary and Poland in 1956, in Soviet Union in 1961, in
, the centralisation efforts of the central government found their way easier between municipal decision-makers, without any resistance. As a result of all this, institution-based municipal autonomy, which was held responsible for everything, was
move quickly before somebody else does; and third, the resistance to new ways at all levels of society. These aspects explain why one does not know in advance whether an innovation will make its way in the real world. There are many uncertainties
the trough or minimum of the recession period (at t 2 ), DC is the duration of the recession, and DR is the duration of recovery. The drop or resistance is the capacity to absorb or withstand a shock, while the rebound or bounce back reflects the