Very little attention has been given in the literature to the interesting question of how to handle relatedness in finite populations. The main problem is that a finite population is never really ieat equilibriuml. in that it represents just one realization of an infinite assemblage of possible allelic distributions. A recent paper of Rousset and Billiard (manu- script) provides coefficients which, if used in inclusive fitness models under conditions of weak selection, give us a measure of average allele frequency change where the average is taken over all such realizations. Their coefficients are expressed in terms of identity in state, and an alternative formulation (Taylor and Day, manuscript) in terms of coefficients of consanguinity permits the calculation of relatedness in simple cases from pedigree analysis. Here we implement these calculations in a finite asexual haploid population with either a deme structure or a one-dimensional stepping-stone structure and verify our results with numerical simulations in small populations. Our simulations al- low us to investigate the dependence of relatedness on allele frequency, and our results here agree qualitatively with those obtained by Rousset and Billiard. Finally, we examine a model of altruism in a deme-structured population to verify numerically that our relatedness coefficients provide a correct measure of allele frequency change.
Authors:C. M. Mutshinda, Z. V. Finkel, C. E. Widdicombe, and A. J. Irwin
Ecological communities are shaped by a complex interplay between abiotic forcing, biotic regulation and demographic stochasticity. However, community dynamics modelers tend to focus on abiotic forcing overlooking biotic interactions, due to notorious challenges involved in modeling and quantifying inter-specific interactions, particularly for species-rich systems such as planktonic assemblages. Nevertheless, inclusive models with regard to the full range of plausible drivers are essential to characterizing and predicting community response to environmental changes. Here we develop a Bayesian model for identifying, from in-situ time series, the biotic, abiotic and stochastic factors underlying the dynamics of species-rich communities, focusing on the joint biomass dynamics of biologically meaningful groups. We parameterize a multivariate model of population co-variation with an explicit account for demographic stochasticity, density-dependent feedbacks, pairwise interactions, and abiotic stress mediated by changing environmental conditions and resource availability, and work out explicit formulae for partitioning the temporal variance of each group in its biotic, abiotic and stochastic components. We illustrate the methodology by analyzing the joint biomass dynamics of four major phytoplankton functional types namely, diatoms, dinoflagellates, coccolithophores and phytoflagellates at Station L4 in the Western English Channel using weekly biomass records and coincident measurements of environmental covariates describing water conditions and potentially limiting resources. Abiotic and biotic factors explain comparable amounts of temporal variance in log-biomass growth across functional types. Our results demonstrate that effective modelling of resource limitation and inter-specific interactions is critical for quantifying the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors.
Authors:A. Hoover, M. Bacrania, N. Hoteling, P. Karpius, M. Rabin, C. Rudy, D. Vo, J. Beall, D. Bennett, W. Doriese, G. Hilton, R. Horansky, K. Irwin, J. Ullom, and L. Vale
Microcalorimeter detectors provide superior energy resolution for the detection of X-rays and gamma-rays. The technology utilizes
a cryogenic transition-edge sensor (TES) coupled to a tin bulk absorber. We are working on fabrication methods for the production
of arrays with many sensors. In this paper, we present data collected with an array of microcalorimeters using as many as
26 sensor elements simultaneously. Advances in sensor design have extended the useful dynamic range to photon energies up
to ∼200 keV, while providing resolution performance in the 80–90 eV FWHM range, significantly better than planar high-purity
germanium. These sensor arrays have applications in the measurement of nuclear materials. We present data collected from 153Gd, a highly-enriched uranium sample, and a plutonium isotopic standard source. We also demonstrate clean separation of the
235U 185.715 keV peak from the ubiquitous 226Ra 186.211 keV background peak interference.