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  • Author or Editor: András Simonovits x
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Samuelson úttöro cikkének megjelenése óta cikkek százai vizsgálták az együttélo nemzedékek modellcsaládját, ahol különbözo idoben született emberek hatnak egymásra. Egy-két szerzotol eltekintve a kutatók két nemzedékre (pontosabban: két korosztályra) szukítették le a makrovizsgálatokat. Néhány más kutatóval együtt az együttélo korosztályok modellcsaládját kívántam továbbfejleszteni, ahol az együttélo korosztályok száma kettotol akár százig terjedhet.  Négy kérdéskört hasonlítok össze a két modellcsaládban: (1) Egy kis nyitott gazdaságban a felosztó-kiróvó nyugdíjrendszer és a tokefedezeti rendszer jóléti rangsorolása; (2) az állandósult állapotok létezése és száma; (3) a két állandósult állapot stabilitása vagy instabilitása; (4) ciklusok és kaotikus pályák létezése. Az utóbbi három megállapítás zárt gazdaságra, racionális várakozásokra és tokefedezeti rendszerre vonatkozik. Jelenleg még többségben vannak azok a kutatók, akik nincsenek tisztában az együttélo nemzedékek és az együttélo korosztályok modellcsaládja közti különbséggel, vagy ha mégis, akkor érdektelennek tartják azt. Ebben a tanulmányban azt szeretném megmutatni, hogy tévednek: a két modellcsalád között hatalmas különbség van, és semmi okunk sincs arra, hogy lecövekeljünk a legegyszerubb eset vizsgálatánál.

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According to the dominant view, the quality of individual scientific papers can be evaluated by the standard of the journal in which they are published. This paper attempts to demonstrate the limits of this view in the field of economics. According to our main findings, a publication frequently serves as a signal of high professional standards rather than as a source of information; referees and editors frequently reject good papers and accept bad ones; citation indices only partially balance the distortions deriving from the selection process; there are essential “entry costs” to the publication process. Moreover, financial interests of publishers may contradict scientific interests. As long as leading economists do not give voice to their dissatisfaction, there is no hope for any reform of the selection process.

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We compare the pre- and post-2010 Hungarian political regimes through the lens of pension policies. We label the pre-2010 regime as democratic populist because it was characterized by fiscally irresponsible policies, yet it maintained the system of checks and balances and the rule of law. In contrast, we call the post-2010 regime authoritarian populist as it has employed authoritarian political techniques while maintained popular legitimation through regular elections. To substantiate the difference between the two periods from an economic viewpoint, we compare pre- and post-2010 pension policies to find important differences as well as surprising similarities. In particular, we analysed the following five policy aspects: (a) reform and partial privatization of the government-run pension system, (b) policies on the statutory (normal) and the effective (average) pension age, (c) indexation, (d) progression in benefits calculations and progressivity in the personal income tax, and (e) contribution rates. Based on ideological preferences, we argue that one would expect the pension system to become financially more sustainable but less redistributive after 2010 in comparison to the preceding period. Yet, we find that although pro-poor redistribution through the pension system has indeed been curtailed, fiscal sustainability has not improved due to the erratic policies.

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Acta Oeconomica
Authors: Péter Halmai, László Csaba and András Simonovits
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Acta Oeconomica
Authors: András Simonovits, Ádám Török and Beatrix Lányi

T. Boeri - A. Börsch-Supan - A. Brugviani - R. A. Kapteyn - F. Peracchi (eds): Pensions: More Information, Less Ideology(Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Press, 2001, 196 pp.) B. Å. Lundvall - G. Esping-Andersen - L. Soete - M. Castells - M. Telò - M. Tomlinson - R. Boyer - R. M. Lindley (ed.: M. J. Rodrigues): The New Knowledge Economy in Europe. A Strategy for International Competitiveness and Cohesion (Cheltenham, UK, Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar, 2002, 337 pp.) G. Gorzelak - É. Ehrlich - L. Faltan - M. Illner: Central Europe in Transition: Toward EU Membership (Warsaw: Regional Studies Association, 2001, 371 pp.)

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Acta Oeconomica
Authors: Tibor Czeglédi, András Simonovits, Endre Szabó and Melinda Tir

A basic problem with the ever-changing Hungarian retirement rules has been that they created excessive shares of gainers and of losers. Certain workers with long (and continuous) employment could retire well below the normal retirement age (NRA) with full benefit. Other workers, with fragmented and therefore short employment had to work until reaching the ever rising NRA. A peculiar consequence of these rules is the strong negative correlation between the retirement age and the length of contribution. Moving in the direction of a fair system, like the Nonfinancial Defined Contribution system, would improve sustainability and fairness.

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