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The study below examines the spectacular failure of four Hungarian public opinion pollsters to predict prior to the first round of the results of the 2002 general elections, and the causes of this failure. It reviews the types of voting behavior manifesting themselves during the polls and the elections, and analyzes the criteria of accurate prediction. Based on the results of public opinion pollsters it summarizes the observations made during the data surveys prior to the first round of the 2002 elections, and the explanations given by researchers for their failure. Then it tries to explain the reasons for the wrong predictions of pollsters. Besides a change in party support after surveys (late swing) it emphasizes the role of the three collective false beliefs: the misconception of voters' attitudes towards Fidesz; the acceptance and interpretation as realistic (giving an accurate picture of the real trends) of the results of pollsters; and the voters' wrong assumption concerning the final result of the elections. The study also describes how these effects manifested themselves.

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Acta Alimentaria
Authors: I. Dalmadi and M. Tóth-Markus
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Abstract  

Rat luteinizing hormone /LH/ was labelled with125I by the Chloramine T method.125I-LH, used as tracer in radioimmunoassay, was separated from the labelling reaction mixture by gel filtration. By using the proper protein/radioiodine ratio in the labelling reaction mixture the specific activity of125I-LH was adjusted to 2.5–20.5 MBq g–1. The influence of the specific activity on the assay parameters as well as on the tracer stability was investigated.

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Abstract  

A method has been developed enabling the direct coupling of first or second antibody to finely dispersed magnetite (Fe3O4). The immunosorbent thus produced was applied in various radioimmunoassay systems (T3, T4, TSH, Cortisol) for the separation of bound and free antigens. The elimination of the need for precoating the magnetic particles with a polymer has several advantages. One of them lies in the ease of one-step production of the immunosorbent and other is the high antibody/magnetite ratio. The influence of the concentration of the immunosorbent and detergent (TWEEN 20 or TRITON X-100) on the assay parameters (Bo, NSB, etc.) has been systematically investigated and the optimum concentration of the magnetizable particles and detergent has been determined. The reliability of magnetic separation has been validated by comparing it with the conventional PEG separation method.

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Millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) is more resistant to climatic and soil conditions but the yields are lower than in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), therefore its cultivation was given up for decades in Hungary. Millet is a suitable raw material for the production of pasta products without using eggs and it has other advantageous physiological effects, therefore its cultivation in Hungary is expected again. Millet is a gluten free cereal so it is not able to create viscoelastic protein network. During the biochemical studies the activity of enzymes (peroxidase, polyphenol oxidase) influencing the colour of the flour, flour mixtures (T. aestivum L., Triticum durum L., P. miliaceum L.), and pasta products were examined. Oxidoreductases in wheat flour have always been of interest to cereal chemists. The effects of peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.7) (POX) are much less thoroughly documented, although they are reported to have a relatively high level of activity in different flours. These days there are also insufficient research data on how the millet in dry pasta modifies the enzyme activity and the storage stability and shelf life of dry pasta products.

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Remarkable differences have been found in host-plant related chemical communication between Phyllotreta cruciferae Goeze and Ph. vittula Redtenbacher (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae). In preliminary screenings sizeable catches of Ph. vittula were recorded in traps baited with either 3-butenyl isothiocyanate, or a quternary mixture of 2-butenyl-, phenethyl-, 3-butenyl-and butyl isothiocyanates. Later studies revealed that Ph. vittula responded better to the above isothiocyanate mixture, than to allyl isothiocyanate, while Ph. cruciferae catches were always greater in allyl isothiocyanate baited traps. Of the four isothiocyanates in the mixture, 3-butenyl isothiocyanate may predominantly be responsible for attractivity of the mixture towards Ph. vittula .As such differences in isothiocyanate preference may occur also in other flea beetle species, for practical applications more efficient, selective and sensitive baits and traps may be developed in the future based on improved knowledge of the chemical communication of flea beetles and through optimal combination of effective isothiocyanate compounds. Both Ph. cruciferae and Ph. vittula rank among the most important pest flea beetles in Europe.

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Besides the well-known O157:H7 clone causing enterohaemorrhagic colitis and haemolytic uraemic syndrome in Europe, Japan and North America, the number of Escherichia coli isolates with non-motile (NM) phenotype has considerably increased. We supposed that spontaneous antibiotic resistance mutation could cause this phenotypic change. To model our hypothesis we isolated rifampicin- (Rif) and ampicillin- (Amp) resistant mutants from E. coli O157:H7 prototype strains 7785 and EDL933. Among Rif r mutants we could isolate strains with no or reduced motility, while the Ampr mutants became hypermotile. The biochemical profile of the mutants had not changed but phage sensitivity and generation time of the mutants were altered. Among the representative strains we did not find polymorphism with Southern blot analysis and no polymorphism was found in the fliC gene of the mutants. The described characteristics have proven to be stable. In a mice virulence assay by intravenous infections the virulence of the derivatives was also found to be changed. In summary, we found that the antibiotic-resistant phenotype in E. coli O157:H7 was coexpressed with several other phenotypic changes including motility and virulence. It can be assumed that expression of the involved phenotypes may be under the influence of a common regulatory cascade. Further work is needed to identify the components and mechanism of this regulatory system.

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Impacts of macrosynoptic weather patterns on the development of the thermal excess in suburban areas of Debrecen are examined in this paper. Temperature datasets have been recorded at two heights by three automatic weather stations mounted in Debrecen (east Hungary) and a small settlement in its vicinity. An additional automatic weather station is used as a reference station outside Debrecen. Urban heat island (UHI) intensities have been calculated from the raw datasets. Impacts of synoptic conditions have been analyzed on the base of Péczely’s macrosynoptic types. It has been found that anticyclone types are more favorable from the aspect of UHI development, while cyclone types, especially the passage of warm fronts can effectively hinder the formation of strong heat islands in Debrecen.

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Abstract  

Radon activity concentrations of 1077 homes were surveyed in two villages of Northern Hungary to obtain the yearly averages. The distribution of indoor radon activity concentrations covered a wide range. Cancer incidences of all the 2680 inhabitants for the last 30 years were also studied in these villages in order to establish a possible correlation with radon exposure. The methods applied in the analysis allow to draw up statistically supported statements concerning the relative cancer risks of different radon level groups. The results show that among non-smoking middle-aged women the frequency of cancer, regardless to tumor types, is lower for those who live in residential radon activity concentrations of a level between 110 and 185 Bq.m-3 compared to those living in radon levels outside this range. A minimum value in the cancer frequency exists at a level of significance p<0.008 (determined with the help of Fisher's test). In general, the present study corroborates the outcome of other studies demonstrating the existence of a biopositive effect, and suggests a wider concept of radon health effects.

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