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  • Author or Editor: János Tóth I x
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The study below examines the spectacular failure of four Hungarian public opinion pollsters to predict prior to the first round of the results of the 2002 general elections, and the causes of this failure. It reviews the types of voting behavior manifesting themselves during the polls and the elections, and analyzes the criteria of accurate prediction. Based on the results of public opinion pollsters it summarizes the observations made during the data surveys prior to the first round of the 2002 elections, and the explanations given by researchers for their failure. Then it tries to explain the reasons for the wrong predictions of pollsters. Besides a change in party support after surveys (late swing) it emphasizes the role of the three collective false beliefs: the misconception of voters' attitudes towards Fidesz; the acceptance and interpretation as realistic (giving an accurate picture of the real trends) of the results of pollsters; and the voters' wrong assumption concerning the final result of the elections. The study also describes how these effects manifested themselves.

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