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Abstract  

Giving a generalization of Berkes and Horvth (2003), we consider the Euclidean norm of vector-valued stochastic processes, which can be approximated with a vector-valued Wiener process having a linear drift. The suprema of the Euclidean norm of the processes are not far away from the norm of the processes at the right most point. We also obtain an approximation for the supremum of the weighted Euclidean norm with a Wiener process.

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Magyar Sebészet
Authors:
Örs Péter Horváth
and
Lajos Kotsits
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Abstract

The present paper deals with a research methodology issue. After an introductory literature review, it presents a novel model developed to study the diffusion of educational innovations. This model does not focus on the time course, phases, or characteristics of diffusion, which can be described by various innovation indicators, but on persistent structural elements such as the actors, their relationships, and the territorial, organizational, or other entities that host the actors. The latter, which separate the actors from each other or even constitute a common space for them are called containers. The presented actor-container model (ACM) was developed to help interpret empirical data in the context of a larger research, named Innova project, dealing with the emergence, diffusion, and system-shaping impact of bottom-up innovations initiated by teachers or other local actors in the education sector. In this paper, we demonstrate the application of ACM by analyzing the responses of educational institutions (organizations) at different levels of public and higher education in Hungary, based on the 2018 online questionnaire survey database (N = 2042). The examples presented show that ACM provides a unique perspective for research on innovation diffusion by shedding new light on actors and containers, opening up new possibilities for data analysis and results interpretation. We believe that ACM can be applied not only in the context of educational innovations but also in other innovation fields.

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We prove the weak consistency of the trimmed least square estimator of the covariance parameter of an AR(1) process with stable errors.

Open access
Antik Tanulmányok
Authors:
Attila Ferenczi
,
Rita Kopeczky
,
Krupp József
,
Lajos Zoltán Simon
, and
László Horváth
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The chemical composition of the oils of four thyme (Lamiaceae) chemotypes ( Thymus vulgaris L., Thymus serpyllum L., Thymus x citriodorus (Pers.) Schreb., and Thymus x citriodorus “Archer’s Gold”) has been determined by gas chromatography (GC). Thymol was the main component of the oils of Thymus vulgaris and Thymus serpyllum , geraniol was the main component of the oil of Thymus x citriodorus , and carvacrol was the main component of the oil of Thymus x citriodorus “Archer’s Gold”. The bioactivity of the volatile oil of Thymus vulgaris and of the three main components of the oils against Gram negative plant pathogenic bacteria was examined by direct bioautography. They had an inhibitory effect on all of the test microorganisms. Two bacterial strains ( Xanthomonas campestris pv. vesicatoria and Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola ) were most sensitive in the bioautographic system and use of these bacteria would considerably shorten the process of bioautographic detection. The two antibiotics gentamycin and streptomycin were used as controls.

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Orvosi Hetilap
Authors:
Tamás Bödecs
,
Boldizsár Horváth
,
Lajos Kovács
,
Marietta Diffellné Németh
, and
János Sándor

Hazánkban nem történt átfogó vizsgálat a várandósság alatti depresszió és szorongás gyakoriságának feltérképezésére. Célkitűzés: A szerzők a hiányzó adatok megállapításán túl célul tűzték ki azok szociodemográfiai összefüggéseinek vizsgálatát is. Módszer: Szombathely 10 védőnői körzetében populációs alapú monitoringot hoztak létre minden nőről, aki 2008. február 1. és 2009. február 1. között került terhességi nyilvántartásba. Háromszázhét fő kora terhességi várandóson a depressziót a rövid Beck-depresszió-kérdőívvel, a szorongást a Spielberger-féle vonásszorongás-kérdőívvel mérték. Eredmények: A várandósok 17,9%-a (95%MT: 13,0–21,5%) jelzett depressziós tüneteket, 1,0%-uk súlyos depressziót mutatott. A szorongásos tüneteket mutatók aránya 14,6% (95%MT: 10,7–18,6%) volt, míg 4,2% kifejezetten szorongott. Szignifikánsan magasabb szintű depressziót és szorongást jeleztek a szakmunkás képesítésnél kevesebbel rendelkezők, a legalacsonyabb jövedelműek és a munkahellyel nem rendelkezők. Ezenfelül szignifikánsan magasabb depressziót jeleztek a 18 évnél fiatalabbak és az élettársi kapcsolatban élők. Következtetések: A vizsgált mintában a kora terhességi depresszió és szorongás prevalenciája lényegében megegyezik a fejlett piacgazdaságú országokban megfigyelhető gyakoriságokkal.

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Hazai népesedési folyamatok az elmúlt évtizedben

Population trends in Hungary in the last decade with an outlook

Scientia et Securitas
Authors:
Zsolt Spéder
,
Lajos Bálint
,
Veronika Horváth
,
Balázs Kapitány
, and
Csilla Obádovics

Összefoglalás.

Elemzésünk célja, hogy bemutassuk azokat a népesedési folyamatokat, amelyek az elmúlt évtizedben a népesség jelentős fogyását okozzák, és aminek eredményeként a jövőbeli népesedési folyamatok alakulnak. Vizsgálatainkat és értelmezéseinket a három népesedési komponens, a termékenység, halandóság, illetve a nemzetközi vándorlás mentén végezzük. Az elemzésből kiderül, hogy évszázadunk második évtizedében a népességfogyás legfőbb tényezője a halálozási veszteség volt, de a népességfogyást a nemzetközi vándorlás negatív egyenlege is érdemben növelte. A születések és a halálozások száma közötti különbség 1981 óta fennáll; a természetes fogyás előbb a születésszám csökkenése, majd az évtized végén a Covid–19 járvány miatt nőtt. A negatív vándorlási egyenleget főképpen a német és az osztrák munkaerőpiaci nyitás növelte meg. A jelenlegi korszerkezetet figyelembe véve az előreszámítások a népesség további csökkenését vetítik előre.

Summary.

The aim of our analysis is to present the population trends that have caused the significant population decline in the last decade in Hungary and that will determine the future Hungarian population in terms of numbers and composition. Our analyses and interpretations are carried out along the three population components: fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration. The analysis reveals that in the second decade of our century, the main factor of population decline was mortality loss, but that the negative balance of international migration also contributed significantly to population decline.

Natural reproduction (births minus deaths) has been negative in Hungary since 1981. In the period following the change of regime, natural increase increased from -1.9 per thousand births in 1990 to -4.1 per thousand in 2003, due to a decline in the birth rate. In the decade between 2010 and 2020, it ranged between -3.5 and -4.1, reaching -6.4 per thousand in the second year of the Covid-19 (2022).

The number of birth, which although fluctuated somewhat between 2010 and 2020, but was essentially stagnating, is the result of two opposite processes. On the one hand, the propensity to have children, measured by the total fertility rate, has been steadily increasing. On the other hand, the number of women of childbearing age, including women aged 20-39 who are of prime childbearing age, has been steadily declining.

An important feature of the pre-pandemic period was the slowdown in mortality improvement. The negative trend was observed in both EU countries and in our country, affecting both men and women. The age-specific look highlighted slowdown among middle-aged (30-59 years) man and women, and the improvement in mortality has declined also among younger elderly people (60-79 years). The stagnation in the number of deaths in Hungary was both a consequence of an ageing age structure and a reduction in the improvement in life expectancy. This stagnation was replaced by a rapid increase in mortality with the emergence of the Covid-19 epidemic. Our analysis revealed that during the pandemic the mortality risk for men was higher than that for women, and surprisingly the slope of the age-specific mortality risks were very similar to age-specific mortality risks before the epidemic.

Hungary’s net migration was positive for a long time after the regime change, then turned negative shortly before the decade under review, with the number of people leaving the country exceeding the number of people arriving. The main reason that after the opening of the Austrian and German labour markets in 2011, outmigration, especially labour emigration rapidly increase among Hungarians according to ‘mirror statistics’. Noteworthy, Hungarian outmigration is among the lowest compared to the new EU states. A new development is that significant “return migration” trends can be observed at the end of the decade.

At the end, as a summary, three population scenarios are presented, the most likely baseline scenario, the high fertility scenario and the zero net migration scenario. The baseline scenario shows that by 2050 the population size will fall to 8.5 million, which corresponds to a 13% decline over roughly three decades. The age structure will also change radically; while in 2019 the share of people aged 65 and over is 14.5%, in 2050 it will be 27.5%, i.e. more than a quarter of the population will be aged 65 and over.

Open access