This paper analyses trends and volatility in patenting in USA by Japan in the electronics/electrical and motor vehicle/transport epuiqment industries. The number of patents has increased steadily, with the two industries accounting in 1997 for one-half of Japanese patents in USA. The electronics/electrical industry has been a much stronger performer, with a share of 30% of US patents, compared with 20% for motor vehicle/transport epuiqment. Using monthly data for 1975-1997, the time-varying nature of the volatility of patents registered in the USA is examined. The asymmetric AR(1)-GJR(1,1) model is found to be suitable for motor vehicle/transport epuiqment, whereas the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) and AR(1)-GJR(1,1) models provide interesting results for electronics/electrical.
Summary Patents have become increasingly important, especially over the past two decades. As patent office procedures have adapted to remain abreast of changing economic and scientific circumstances, it has also become increasingly important to define and analyse innovation more precisely. This paper introduces a simple new measure of innovation, the patent success ratio (PSR), or the ratio of successful patent applications to total patent applications. It has been argued in the extensive literature on innovation and technology policy that patents can serve as an accurate proxy for innovative activity or innovation. This paper suggests that PSR is a more accurate measure of how innovative activity has changed over time. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the usefulness of the new PSR measure of innovation using annual US data for the period 1915-2001.
Authors:Felix Chan, Dora Marinova, and Michael McAleer
The paper analyses the asymmetric volatility of patents related to pollution prevention and abatement (hereafter, anti-pollution) technologies registered in the USA. Ecological and pollution prevention technology patents have increased steadily over time, with the 1990's having been a period of intensive patenting of technologies related to the environment. The time-varying nature of the volatility of anti-pollution technology patents registered in the USA is examined using monthly data from the US Patent and Trademark Office for the period January 1975 to December 1999. Alternative symmetric and asymmetric volatility models, such as GARCH, GJR and EGARCH, are estimated and tested against each other using full sample and rolling windows estimation.
Authors:Chia-Lin Chang, Michael McAleer, and Les Oxley
The paper is concerned with analysing what makes a great journal great in the sciences, based on quantifiable Research Assessment Measures (RAM). Alternative RAM are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science database (hereafter ISI). Various ISI RAM that are calculated annually or updated daily are defined and analysed, including the classic 2-year impact factor (2YIF), 5-year impact factor (5YIF), Immediacy (or 0-year impact factor (0YIF)), Eigenfactor, Article Influence, C3PO (Citation Performance Per Paper Online), h-index, Zinfluence, PI-BETA (Papers Ignored—By Even The Authors), Impact Factor Inflation (IFI), and three new RAM, namely Historical Self-citation Threshold Approval Rating (H-STAR), 2 Year Self-citation Threshold Approval Rating (2Y-STAR), and Cited Article Influence (CAI). The RAM data are analysed for the 6 most highly cited journals in 20 highly-varied and well-known ISI categories in the sciences, where the journals are chosen on the basis of 2YIF. The application to these 20 ISI categories could be used as a template for other ISI categories in the sciences and social sciences, and as a benchmark for newer journals in a range of ISI disciplines. In addition to evaluating the 6 most highly cited journals in each of 20 ISI categories, the paper also highlights the similarities and differences in alternative RAM, finds that several RAM capture similar performance characteristics for the most highly cited scientific journals, determines that PI-BETA is not highly correlated with the other RAM, and hence conveys additional information regarding research performance. In order to provide a meta analysis summary of the RAM, which are predominantly ratios, harmonic mean rankings are presented of the 13 RAM for the 6 most highly cited journals in each of the 20 ISI categories. It is shown that emphasizing THE impact factor, specifically the 2-year impact factor, of a journal to the exclusion of other informative RAM can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal performance and influence on different disciplines, especially in view of inflated journal self citations.
Authors:Dora Marinova, Michael McAleer, and Daniel Slottje
Summary This paper examines the relationship between the antitrust environment and innovation in the US economy, where innovation is measured by patent activity. The hypothesis to be tested is whether antitrust enforcement activity, as measured by the number of civil filings of the US Department of Justice, has had a significant impact on the level of innovation in the US economy, after adjusting for other factors that have an impact on innovation, such as research and development expenditures and real economic growth. Impacts of civil antitrust case filings, criminal antitrust case filings and total US Department of Justice antitrust case filings on patent activity in the USA are estimated for the period 1953-2000. The empirical results show that civil case filings have a statistically significant impact on innovation.