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  • Author or Editor: T. Tarján x
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The paper is a contribution to the empirics of cross-country and cross-region literature on growth economics. Its aim is to assess the role of the global component in the development of European regions during the period 2000–2005. For this purpose a simple leader-follower model is set up in which all countries imitate the technology of the leader. The model is applied to cross-country data of the period 1870–2003 as corroboration and to the cross-region data. This approach makes it possible to rank the regions based on the rate of return of broadly understood capital and the impact of global forces as compared to local ones. Finally, a conclusion is drawn on the extent of the role of imitations in the growth of European regions.

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The paper aims to develop a model of nonlinear economic growth — with simple assumptions — which explains both Japan’s S -shape convergence path and the UK’s declining path toward the US between 1870–2000, and the development of other countries, as well as post-war reconstruction. According to the model, progress in stock of knowledge is formed by a quadratic formula of the relative development of follower countries.The model draws on four recent theories. Firstly, Romer’s theory, which approaches a country’s level of development by using the number of its products (Romer 1990), secondly, Jones’ idea theory with a slight modification (Jones 2004), third, the theory of quality of institutions, which determines economic performance (North 1993), and finally, the theory of physical and human capital. The first part of the paper sets up the production function, the second determines the growth rate and analyses the reconstruction path, while the third draws up model forecasts.

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Ferenc Jánossy was the most important Hungarian pioneer of surveys on long time series. In the 1960s he devised the famous theory of trendlines, which allowed him to forecast the great world economic recession of the 1970s a decade in advance. The best-known international authority on compiling historical time series is Angus Maddison, who prepared time series of the main demographic and macroeconomic indicators for 56 countries, from 1820 to the present day. Both scientists, whose survey method showed both a historical and a quantitative approach, reached the conclusion that human capital is the most important of production factors for securing long-term economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to compare their results with the latest development, which is known as the “new growth theory”.

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