A susceptibility parameter called the intelligence constant by which it is possible to assess the complexity of scientific research in the different periods in history is suggested. In scientific sense, the intelligence constant measures creative energy expended in the achievement of a major scientific result. It is demonstrated that the sudden change of intelligence constant signalizes a scientific revolution and so the law of intelligence constant change might provide a particular method to forecast scientific revolutions in the future.
This paper proposes to take the age at which a scientist achieved his first success as his famous-becoming age; uses a statistical method to obtaine the optimum age of scientists for making scientific discoveries; uses the same to find the experiential formula that explains the relationship between the number of scientific achievement and the number of scientists and their ages. Employing this formula, it expounds to some extent the Yuasa Phenomenon. For conclusion it analyzes the scientific value of experiential formula and the reliability of its scope of prediction.
Studies on the life-span of past scientists according to data of theChronicle of Major Events of Natural Sciences have found that the age of optimum peak value of scientific discovery is about half the peak value of their life-span. Achievements of those scientists who made a name before 25 years old are 44 percent more than average and their life efficiency is 1.7 times that of the average. Therefore it is an effective measure to train prococious scientists for a nation in her strive to catch up with or surpass world level in science.
Authors:Liang Li-Ming, Zhao Hong-Zhou, Wang Yuan, and Wu Yi-Shan
A statistical analysis is made of two data sets and it is found that the distribution of major scientific and technological achievements in terms of the age of those achievement makers is Weibull distribution. Pearson'sx2 test results are satisfactory. This finding holds for different centuries, different nations and different disciplines.