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Events is Low and There Are Multiple Confounders . American Journal of Epidemiology , 158 ( 3 ): 280 – 287 . Conway , P. ( 1994 ): IMF Lending Programs: Participation

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during the IMF Intervention. Inter-Asia Cultural Studies , 9(1): 82–95. Cho J. The National Crisis and De/reconstructing Nationalism in South Korea during the IMF Intervention

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A cikk az IMF és a Világbank kétévtizedes tevékenységének a magyar gazdaságpolitika alakulására gyakorolt hatását elemzi. Hivatkozási keretét a két nemzetközi pénzügyi intézmény által ellátott négy funkció (elemzés-előrejelzés és gazdaságpolitikai fel­ügyelet, globális szabályozás, hitelnyújtás, technikai segítségnyújtás) és az általuk kiváltott öt azonosított gazdaságpolitikai hatás (gazdaságpolitikai értékelés, gazda­ságpolitikai ajánlás, kemény befolyásolás, puha befolyásolás, keresztbefolyásolás) képezi. A szerző megállapítja, hogy a piacgazdaságra történő átmenet időszakában jelentős volt az IMF és a Világbank befolyásoló szerepe, de lényegesen kisebb a sokak által feltételezettnél. Az IMF befolyásoló hatása - a teljesítménykritériumokhoz kapcsolt hitelnyújtási gyakorlat miatt - elsősorban a kemény befolyásolás és az ún. IV. cikkely konzultációk során tett gazdaságpolitikai ajánlásokon keresztül érvényesült.

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Integration , 36 ( 3 ): 213 – 229 . BBC News ( 2011 ): Hungary Asks for IMF and EU Assistance . BBC Business News . https://www.bbc.com/news/business-15820340

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. IMF ( 2008 ): Republic of Latvia, “Request for Stand-by Arrangement” . December 19, Washington, D. C. IMF ( 2010 ): Greece: Staff Report on Request for Stand by Arrangemen t. Country Report , No. 10/110 (May

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Foreign direct investment and external debt in Hungary

An attempt to examine the macroeconomic capital structure from a new perspective

Society and Economy
Authors: Iván Bélyácz and Mónika Kuti

Faria, André — Mauro, Paolo (2004): Institutions and the External Capital Structure of Countries. IMF Working Paper No. 04/236. Faria, André — Lane, Philip R. — Mauro, Paolo — Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria (2007

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In 2008, Hungary was heavily hit by the global financial crisis, and had to turn to the IMF among the first. The paper analyses the road leading to the post-Lehman liquidity crisis from the point of view of Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), the central bank of Hungary. Based on the minutes and the press releases* of the Monetary Council (MC), a comprehensive account is given why the puzzle was put together too late.

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, LIX(October): 1107 – 1137 . Blanchard , O. – Leigh , D. ( 2013 ): Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers . IMF Working Paper , 13

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Looking back to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, Hungary was among the first countries to be forced to make use of financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. The government, the MNB (the central bank of Hungary) as well as the domestic and foreign analysts cited the high public debt and the volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the crises. Though these were real weaknesses, this diagnosis was false as much as the following treatment. First and foremost, it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary to request outside financial assistance.

The excessive fiscal tightening urged by the MNB only led to deepening of the crises. In general, the macropolicy – both fiscal and monetary policy – before, during and after the crises turned out to be painfully pro-cyclical. Due to the lack of sufficient reserves, the MNB became virtually powerless to intervene and could only watch from the side-lines as events unfolded. The orthodox mind-set after replenishing the forex reserves prevented it from implementing a broad scale of unconventional measures to ease the crises. The fiscal authority lost its capacity long before to reduce the severity of the crises. Thus, the excessive and incorrect structure of fiscal correction coupled with an unjustified orthodox monetary policy, the contraction of the Hungarian economy went much beyond the inevitable amount.

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. Daianu , D. ( 1994 ): Inter-enterprise Arrears in a Command Economy . IMF Working Paper 54/94. Demirgüç-Kunt , A. and Detragiache , E. ( 1998 ): Financial

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