In this paper we analyse the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy with the help of a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the building blocks of the model we investigate, within a scenario analysis, the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty — defined in a broad sense — are categorised into three groups: changes in the external environment (e.g. an adverse external business cycle shock or an exchange rate shock), uncertainties in the estimated behaviour of economic agents (e.g. in the speed of wage adjustment or in the extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (such as the increase of public sector wages). Taking into account the complex relationships between the various areas of the economy, we analyse the short and medium term consequences of such shocks and uncertainties on GDP, its components, the general government deficit and the public debt. We also show that the macroeconomic consequences of the uncertainties are not independent of each other: for instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.
This study investigates the transmission mechanism of price and volatility spillovers across the Budapest, Warsaw, Prague, Bucharest, and Zagreb stock markets in the pre- and post-financial crisis periods under the framework of the multivariate Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. By using daily closing prices, the results highlight certain interesting findings. I found evidence of price spillovers of the intraregional linkages among the stock price movements in five countries. This analysis shows the existence of bi-directional volatility spillovers between stock markets of the Czech Republic and Croatia in the pre-crisis period, and between Hungary and Romania in the post-crisis period. Also, there are significant volatility spillovers from Croatia to Poland and from Poland to the Czech Republic during two periods. The volatility is found to respond asymmetrically to innovations in other markets. The findings also indicate that the stock markets are more substantially integrated into crisis, as well as the persistence of volatility spillovers between the stock markets increases, and the financial stock markets become more integrated after the crisis period.
This paper examines the drivers and the size of the shadow economies of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. It also investigates the tax losses associated with these shadow economic activities in all three countries. The Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model is applied and uses time series data covering the period 1990–2019. The key findings show that the sizes of the shadow economies of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are 10.44, 11.18 and 20.47% respectively. The results also show that the average size of the shadow economies between 1990–2019 was 14.92% in the Czech Republic, 18.72% in Hungary and 22.85% in Poland. The Czech Republic loses 3.13% of tax revenue from goods and services and 2.83% from incomes and profits as a result of the shadow economy, while Hungary loses 5.05% of tax revenue from goods and services and 1.68% from incomes and profits. Poland loses 5.25% of tax revenue from goods and services and 4.34% from incomes and profits.
Looking at almost forty years’ data the strong preference of consumption and housing investment to financial savings is an observable characteristic of Hungarian households’ long-term behaviour. This observation seems to be valid despite the substantial changes in the institutional system. Credit supply has played an important role in this. Households increase their consumption and housing expenditures by taking advantage of lending opportunities. The increased credit supply is coupled with a low financial savings rate. This in not unique in the European countries, however, it may lead to a riskier macroeconomic path for Hungary.
In this paper, I investigate the shareholder value creation potential of a particular combination of corporate risk and capital structure strategies for a non-financial company. I examine the size of shareholder added value when the company increases its financial leverage while keeping its credit rating constant by hedging its asset yield volatility. Ross (1996) shows that by reducing the asset yield volatility of the company, its debt capacity can permanently be increased, which can create 10–15% additional value for shareholders. With the help of my model, I develop an alternative approach to quantify this impact on shareholder value with better calibration characteristics. Uniquely in the technical financial literature, I derive the shareholder value creation potential from the mean-reversion parameters of the asset yield process. Also, I define the optimal structure of swap-basket needed for efficient hedging of industrial asset yield process, and analyse the sensitivity of shareholder added value to the term and transaction costs of applied swap contracts.
Tourism-Led Growth (TLG) hypothesis results are inconclusive for Mediterranean countries in the relevant literature. This study contributes to the literature by employing the bounds test for co-integration and Granger causality tests to investigate level relationship and the direction of causality between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Malta. Results reveal that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Malta. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that both the Tourism-Led Growth and output-driven tourism hypotheses can be inferred for Malta since there is bidirectional causation between international tourism and economic growth.
It is demonstrated that models of royalty rate calculations developed for licensing should not be applied to franchising because the benefits received by a licensee and a franchisee are different. It is proposed that the risk reduction generated by the franchisor’s effective technologies and the managerial support given to a franchisee also be included in the model of royalty calculation. It is demonstrated that a franchisee may wish to acquire the franchise even if the franchisor takes the full amount of additional income or if this additional income is negative.
The aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between unemployment benefits and durations of unemployment with respect to different approaches in social policy. The hypothesis of the research is that unemployment benefits negatively affect the duration of unemployment. An analysis of the relationship concerning unemployment benefits and duration of unemployment within the European Union Member States (EU-28) between 2006–2018 using panel data regression approach was conducted. The sample was split into sub-samples in order to get more homogeneous groups of EU-28 countries. Estimation results suggest that the more generous a social policy, the more prevalent the negative relationship between unemployment duration and unemployment benefits. Our results also revealed that the better the economic situation, the less pressure is put on unemployment benefits and on the duration of unemployment.
In this paper I use a New Keynesian model with unemployment and estimate it for the Romanian economy using Bayesian techniques. I use the estimated model to derive an estimation of the Okun coefficient. I alternatively estimate the Okun coefficient using the Bayesian linear regression. The results show that the Okun coefficient is high in the Romanian economy implying that the current crisis will have a severe impact on the labour market as well as important social effects.
Authors:Nádia Simões, Nuno Crespo, and José Castro Pinto
Based on a micro-level approach and using data from the European Working Conditions Survey, covering 27 countries, we analyse the determinants of job quality. With cluster analysis applied to 11 dimensional indices, we form three homogeneous country groups and identify, by estimating twice-censored Tobit models, the main determinant factors affecting the individual level of job quality in each group. We verify the relevance of variables related to worker characteristics, firm characteristics, and the country in which the individual works. Among worker characteristics, education and employment status are the factors with the highest impact on job quality, while the economic sector is the most important firm characteristic. The results suggest the existence of important differences among groups regarding the magnitude of the impact of some factors. The highest dissimilarities are found between the group with better jobs (Nordic countries plus Belgium) and the group with lower quality jobs (Central and Eastern European countries plus Portugal and Greece). Variables related to age, education, dimension of the firm, and economic sector are those in which more heterogeneity is found among the groups.