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The military success of Alexander and his early death lends itself perfectly to the realm of counterfactual history. No less than nine authors partook in the creation and propagation of Alexander counterfactual history. Our extant examples range from as early as the third century BCE to the sixth century CE. This paper examines first the scholarly debates surrounding the placement of Livy’s digression in his larger narrative, the objectives of Livy’s digression, and the reasons for its existence. It then turns to a discussion of the popularity and consistency of the Roman tradition of Alexander counterfactual history. The tradition not only attempted to represent Rome and Italy as places of relative international importance in the late forth century BCE but also served to compare a young Roman state, which would rise to dominance in the Mediterranean world, favorably to the mightiest conqueror in all of ancient history.

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& Douglas, 1986 ; Ladouceur & Gaboury, 1988 ). Likewise, when there is a problem with a causal reasoning of the results, cognitive errors can occur. One thought process that brings about causal reasoning is that of counterfactual thinking

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The main purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it aims to estimate the effect of the tightening of regulatory capital requirements on the real economy in periods of credit upswing. Second, it intends to show whether applying a counter-cyclical capital buffer measure as set down in the Basel III rules could have helped to reduce the pace of FX lending growth in Hungary, mitigating the buildup of vulnerabilities in the run-up to the global financial crisis. In order to answer these questions, we use a Vector Autoregression-based approach with the aim of understanding the impact of shocks to capital adequacy in the pre-crisis period. Our results suggest that although regulatory authorities could have slowed down the increase in lending temporarily, they would not have been able to avoid the upswing of FX lending by requiring counter-cyclical capital buffers even if such a tool had been available and even if they had reacted quickly to accelerating credit growth. Our results also suggest that a more pronounced tightening might have reduced FX lending substantially, but at the expense of real GDP growth. The reason is that unsustainable fiscal policy led to a trade-off between economic growth and the build-up of new vulnerabilities in the form of FX lending.

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Cho, Eun 1997. Counterfactuals in Korean and Japanese: Interaction between verbal morphology and interpretation. Manuscript. Cornell University. Counterfactuals in Korean and Japanese: Interaction between

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– 1164 . Bondonio , D. ( 2014 ): Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Enterprise Support Programmes. Evidence from a Decade of Subsidies to Italian Firm . European D

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In spite of the main goal of the annalistic narration of Livy, the description of the history of Rome, Alexander the Great has an important role in the Ab Urbe condita . In this way, Livy composed the first known counterfactual episode of European historiography (IX 17–19). Moreover, Livy compared the courage, knowledge and the fortune of the Macedonian and the Roman military commanders, and the opposing forces. Livy presents Alexander with his bad traits, therefore the historiographer denies the divinity of the Macedonian king. Livy opposes the few Greeks, who rejected the order of Augustus, and hated the princeps himself.

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Over 1.8 billion people — from Central Europe to East Asia — have been involved in the great systemic transformation to market economy, civic society and democracy, lasting already a generation. The process has evolved more by chance than by design, and has brought mixed fruits. The diversification of the current situation is a result of both the legacy from the past and the different strategies and policies executed in particular countries over subsequent periods. These polices have been based on different assumptions and followed the advises of alternative schools of economic thought. Consequently, there are theoretical lessons to learn, as well as policy implications, from this vast experience. The paper, written from the comparative perspective and exercising counterfactual history analyses of the multi-track process of the great Post-Communist change during the last two decades, provides some forecasts and propositions for the next generation.

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Abstract

Our study examines the development of unemployment data from three strong Asian economies, China, Korea, and Japan. The focus is on the impact of the economic crisis caused by COVID-19, as well as an overview of the possible solutions to combat the impact of similar future crises on the labour market, in the hope of mitigating future economic dislocations. Following an overview of the region's economy and the pandemic, we use stochastic modelling of unemployment data of ten years prior to the pandemic, to estimate counterfactual future data without the pandemic. We then compare this estimate with real data during the pandemic. We did this in order to explore ideas and new solutions that could possibly be applied in Hungary, which is presently burdened by a very significant labour shortage.

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Statistical Association 1986 81 945 970 Kluve, J. (2004): On the role of counterfactuals in

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Kantian optimization by looking at the set of counterfactual profiles of strategies that a player looks at under the two protocols. I illustrate this for a two-player game in Fig. 1 . At an allocation

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