Many forms of technology cycle models have been developed and utilized to identify new/convergent technologies and forecast social changes, and among these, the technology hype cycle introduced by Gartner has become established as an effective method that is widely utilized in the field. Despite the popularity of this commonly deployed model, however, the currently existing research literature fails to provide sufficient consideration of its theoretical frame or its empirical verification. This paper presents a new method for the empirical measurement of this hype cycle model. In particular, it presents a method for measuring the hype of the users rather than the hype cycle generated by research activities or by the media by means of analyzing the hype cycle using search traffic analysis. The analytical results derived from the case study of hybrid automobiles empirically demonstrated that following the introductory stage and the early growth stage of the life cycle, the positive hype curve and the negative hype curve, the representative figures of the hype cycle, were present in the bell curve for the users’ search behavior. Based on this finding, this paper proposes a new method for measuring the users’ expectation and suggests a new direction for future research that enables the forecasting of promising technologies and technological opportunities in linkage with the conventional technology life cycle model. In particular, by interpreting the empirical results using the consumer behavior model and the adoption model, this study empirically demonstrates that the characteristics of each user category can be identified through differences in the hype cycle in the process of the diffusion of new technological products discussed in the past.
The aim of this paper is to build the stated preference method into the social discount rate methodology. The first part of the paper presents the results of a survey about stated time preferences through pair-choice decision situations for various topics and time horizons. It is assumed that stated time preferences differ from calculated time preferences and that the extent of stated rates depends on the time period, and on how much respondents are financially and emotionally involved in the transactions. A significant question remains: how can the gap between the calculation and the results of surveys be resolved, and how can the real time preferences of individuals be interpreted using a social time preference rate. The second part of the paper estimates the social time preference rate for Hungary using the results of the survey, while paying special attention to the pure time preference component. The results suggest that the current method of calculation of the pure time preference rate does not reflect the real attitudes of individuals towards future generations.
With flexible (variable) retirement every individual determines his optimal retirement age, depending on a common benefit-retirement age schedule and his life expectancy. The government maximises the average expected lifetime utility minus a scalar multiple of the variance of the lifetime pension balances to achieve harmony between the maximisation of welfare and the minimisation of redistribution. Since the government cannot identify types by life expectancy, it must take the individual incentive compatibility constraints into account. Second-best schedules strongly reduce the variances of benefits and of retirement ages of the so-called actuarially fair system, thus achieving higher social welfare and lower redistribution.
thermal and thermo-mechanical characterisation of three candidate polyurethane products: Clear Flex 75 (Smooth-on), Hyperlast 100 (Dow) and the thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) PEARLTHANE D91F88 (Merquinsa). These materials have been used to prepare a
Authors:Christian Galinski and Reinhard Weissinger
Standardization and Standards Information . Minister of Supply and Services (ed.) Proceedings of the International Symposium on Terminology and Documentation in Specialized Communication T&D'91 . Ottawa: Minister of Supply and Services
Authors:Orsolya Nagy, Anna Nagy, Szilvia Tóth, Bernadett Pályi, Anita Vargáné Koroknai and Mária Takács
Reduction Neutralization Testing of Human Antibodies to Dengue Viruses . 2007 . Available at https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/69687/who_ivb_07.07_eng.pdf;jsessionid=2DC5C1EC90E17510281E8F94FE4D91F2?sequence=1