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Globális és regionális változások, szélsőséges jelenségek a Föld-rendszer vízkörforgalmában
Global and regional changes, extremes in the Earth System’s water cycle
Összefoglalás. Jelen dolgozatban áttekintjük a víz körforgásának legfontosabb összetevőit, áramlási irányait. Bemutatjuk a párolgás és kondenzáció jelentőségét a légkör dinamikai folyamataiban. A jelenkori éghajlatváltozás hatásai meghatározó módon befolyásolják a globális vízkörforgalom valamennyi elemét: emelkedik a tengerek szintje, a légkörben tárolható vízgőz mennyisége, szélsőségesebbé válik a csapadék és az aszály területi és időbeli eloszlása. A csapadékintenzitásra vonatkozóan a hazai megfigyelések és számítások eredményeit is bemutatjuk. Felhívjuk a figyelmet a globális hidrometeorológiai monitoring rendszerek fontosságára, valamint a vízrajzi és meteorológiai közszolgáltatások összehangolt szemléletű kezelésének szükségességére. Ez vonatkozik az egyes fizikai változók megfigyelésére, ezek várható tér- és időbeli változásainak előrejelzésére, a klímapolitikák kialakítására – beleértve a kármérséklés és az alkalmazkodás problémaköreit.
Summary. In this paper, we review the most important components and flow directions of the water cycle. Water is one of the special compounds of the Earth system: it can exist in solid, liquid and gaseous states under the prevailing temperature and pressure conditions on Earth, so it can be found in all terrestrial spheres. It plays a fundamental role in maintaining life, thermodynamic processes on a global scale, and regulating the climate. In the Earth’s atmosphere, on average, only every ten-thousandth molecule is water, yet it plays a decisive role in shaping atmospheric energetic and dynamic processes and, in regulating the climate. Through evaporation, condensation, cloud and precipitation formation, and air movements, the atmosphere plays the most important role in the continuous cycle of water between natural water reservoirs. It is typical of the dynamics of atmospheric processes that the average residence time of water molecules in the atmosphere is approx. 10 days, compared to the durations estimated for the ice sheet (12 thousand years) and the oceans and seas (3 thousand years). Water vapor is the most important greenhouse compound in the atmosphere, responsible for approximately 60% of the total atmospheric greenhouse effect. The movement of water vapor is mainly determined by atmospheric circulation processes. The effects of present climate change have a decisive influence on all elements of the global water cycle: the sea level rises, the amount of water vapor that can be stored in the atmosphere increases, the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation becomes more extreme. The global environmental changes attributable to natural and anthropogenic causes are largely linked to water and the variability of the global water cycle. Natural phenomena on a regional and local scale, which can also be associated with global changes, pose a serious risk to life and property protection in certain situations, can adversely affect the conditions of agricultural management and damage natural ecosystems. Results of relevant Hungarian measurements are also presented. Floods, droughts and atmospheric storms, which are often accompanied by intense rainfall events, are collectively responsible for a very significant part of natural damage events. We draw attention to the importance of global hydrometeorological monitoring systems, as well as the need for coordinated management of hydrographic and meteorological public services. This applies to the observation of individual physical variables, the prediction of their expected changes in space and time, the development of climate policies - including the issues of mitigation and adaptation.
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