This paper examines the causes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets by looking closely at the experience of four transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Ukraine). It considers the influence of macroeconomic variables in currency crises occurrence through the use of logit models. In an environment of deteriorating fundamentals the examined issue is whether or not some fundamentals are able to maximise the likelihood of currency crisis incidence.
Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure of exports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetary policy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examines the degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’ business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamics vis-à-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusing in particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since the inception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro area member states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro area cycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to the euro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclical correlations.
Authors:Bruno Ćorić, Lena Malešević Perović, and Vladimir Šimić
This study explores cross-country variations in the size of the effects of a monetary policy shock on output using the sample of 48 developed and developing countries. The structural vector autoregression model is used to estimate monetary policy effects for each country separately. Based on the estimated impulse responses, we construct a measure of the short-run monetary policy effect on output, which is used as the dependent variable in a cross-country regression. Our results suggest that the effects of monetary policy shock on output are significantly influenced by trade openness, exchange rate regime, correlation with the US and for European countries with the German economy, and the development of the banking sector.
The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.
Authors:Alexandra Ferreira Lopes and Tiago Neves Sequeira
In this work, we assess the existence of an S-Curve pattern in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-10) for the relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade. Empirical results support the existence of this curve for Slovenia and Hungary. In the case of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia the pattern is weaker, but it still prevails, as is the case for an aggregate of the 10 transition countries. We then document this property of business cycles in the dynamic general equilibrium trade model of Backus et al. (1994), calibrated specifically to match the CEEC-10 aggregate economy. Results support the existence of an S-Curve, except when technology shocks are absent and domestic and imported goods are perfect substitutes. Since technological shocks are determinant in explaining the S-Curve pattern and transition countries seem to be experiencing some type of technological shocks, it is not likely that this pattern will fade away in the near future and hence it is important for economic policy to be aware of this phenomenon and its consequences for these countries in terms of real convergence and the timing of euro adoption.
The balance-of-payments can act as a constraint on the rate of output growth, on putting a limit to the growth in the level of demand to which supply can adapt. Regional economies might be particularly sensitive to this effect, since they are presumably more integrated among them. In this paper, we examine this issue for the case of the 17 Spanish regions over the period 1988–2009, and calculate their balance-of-payments-constrained growth rates. By comparing these balance-of-payments-constrained growth rates with the actual growth rates, we would be able to assess whether the balance-of-payments has worked as a constraint on growth.
This paper focuses on the roots of strain in the European Monetary Union (EMU). It argues that there is need for a thorough reform of the EU governance structure in conjunction with radical changes in the regulation and supervision of financial markets. The EMU was sub-optimal from its debut and competitiveness gaps did not diminish against the backdrop of its inadequate policy and institutional design. The euro zone crisis is not related to fiscal negligence only; over-borrowing by the private sector and poor lending by banks, as well as a one-sided monetary policy also explain this debacle. The EMU needs to complement its common monetary policy with solid fiscal/budget underpinnings. Fiscal rules and sanctions are necessary, but not sufficient. A common treasury (a federal budget) is needed in order to help the EMU absorb shocks and forestall confidence crises. A joint system of regulation and supervision of financial markets should operate. Emergency measures have to be comprehensive and acknowledge the necessity of a lender of last resort; they have to combat vicious circles. Structural reforms and EMU level policies are needed to enhance competitiveness in various countries and foster convergence.
Amonetary union is classified by several authors as an extreme form of fixed exchange rate arrangement. Analyzing exits from monetary unions is, however, demanding. This paper studies the impact of inflation and interest rate differentials on the nominal exchange rate after leaving a form of peg arrangement and moving to a floating regime, as it may serve as a parallel for a monetary union break-up. The theoretical framework is provided by the theory of the International Fisher Effect. We find that countries with rigid exchange rate policy, less frequently adjusted central parity and narrow exchange rate bands experienced sharp depreciation after the shift, but the depreciation was only temporary. In this group of countries the exchange rate adjustment is weakly exogenous to inflation and interest rate differentials. We apply Johansen’s approach to cointegration, based on the estimation of the Vector Error Correction Model, and the Johansen constraint test of exogeneity. There is strong evidence that long-term depreciation could not be expected in a former euro area country after its possible break-up and that inflation and interest rate would not be the driving forces of exchange rate behavior. Finally, parallels between the local currency adoption within a euro area member state and the leaving of the peg arrangement are pointed out.
Authors:Ayşegül Karataş, Halil Şimdi, and Büşra Garip
Many researchers have analysed the factors that cause discrepancies in the mirror trade statistics. However, the conflicting findings of the relatively limited number of studies on the relation between non-tariff measures and misinvoicing make further research in this area necessary. Therefore, our paper aimed to analyse the impact of non-tariff measures on misinvoicing in the context of Turkey's exports to the European Union (EU) between 2008 and 2015. This study tested the possible relationship between them using other measurable variables related to Turkey's exports to the EU of the products to which the non-tariff measures were applied. This has been done by employing the dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) as well as the quantile regression (QR) models. It was observed that tariffs, along with non-tariff measures, have negative relationship with the misinvoiced amount. Additionally, it is also observed that the transfer price manipulation appears to be a means of corporate tax evasion. This finding aligns with the decrease in reported imports and the decrease in the perceived levels of corruption.
The article agues that the much heralded Tatra Tiger phenomenon in Slovakia is much less of a miraculous growth and catch up story akin to the Asian Tigers or Ireland, and much more of a late economic recovery based on a radical opening to FDI and the reduction of the Slovak welfare state. It attempts to demonstrate how the low rate flat tax system had much less influence on this success story, and how the average Slovak citizen benefited less from it than it is usually assumed. It also aims to raise concerns about the sustainability of this model, as well as its applicability in other economies of the region.