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This article examines volatility spillover among Western Balkan’s stock markets and selected developed markets. If there is an evidence of weak linkage between various markets, then there are potential benefits that could arise from international diversification. However, if we analyse the relationship between two markets that are different in terms of their economic development, and if there is a strong connection between them, market shocks from the developed markets can have an impact on the frontier/emerging markets. Market integration can be indicated with returns linkage and transmission of shocks and volatility between markets. Hence, this can have implications for investment strategies. It is found that there is statistically significant regional spillover between countries of the Western Balkan region. Also, there is global spillover between developed markets and this region as well. Furthermore, there is evidence that Western Balkan’s markets are late in response to important market events, and that can be used when formulating investment strategy.
Abstract
This study investigates the transmission mechanism of price and volatility spillovers across the Budapest, Warsaw, Prague, Bucharest, and Zagreb stock markets in the pre- and post-financial crisis periods under the framework of the multivariate Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. By using daily closing prices, the results highlight certain interesting findings. I found evidence of price spillovers of the intraregional linkages among the stock price movements in five countries. This analysis shows the existence of bi-directional volatility spillovers between stock markets of the Czech Republic and Croatia in the pre-crisis period, and between Hungary and Romania in the post-crisis period. Also, there are significant volatility spillovers from Croatia to Poland and from Poland to the Czech Republic during two periods. The volatility is found to respond asymmetrically to innovations in other markets. The findings also indicate that the stock markets are more substantially integrated into crisis, as well as the persistence of volatility spillovers between the stock markets increases, and the financial stock markets become more integrated after the crisis period.
Abstract
This investigation analyses the academic research development over the last 30 years on behavioural finance in the emerging markets. We use Web of Science database to collect the bibliographic material and a VOS Viewer software to identify similarities by using bibliometric techniques. The results show a significant growth of research in this area, especially after the subprime crisis and highlights the emergence of sub areas of interest to researchers which have arisen in a natural fashion and without a previously defined orientation. There is still no consensus in the literature regarding the causes of this phenomenon and new questions emerge to expand research on herd behaviour in the emerging markets.
In the empirical finance literature most frequently monthly returns are applied for measuring fund performance or testing market efficiency. We propose a new return calculation method, the daily recalculated monthly returns which has not been used in academic studies for asset pricing purposes. We argue that our method outperforms daily and monthly return calculations in the case of Hungarian mutual funds when only short time series are available. Daily recalculated monthly returns induce the best fitting property of the market model while the time series remain sufficiently long to derive asymptotic tests even when we work on a one-year-long time series. Using our method the estimated parameters and the R 2 s are very close to the results obtained when using monthly returns which are considered a good working approximation.
The risk of individual investment in higher education is not a well-researched topic compared to the rate of return to education. In many countries tuition fees are low, but there is a possibility to borrow for investment in education. This can lead to irresponsible investment behaviour. The paper will show that the student loan market is too small to cause a macroeconomic crisis, but that it is a market with many stakeholders and irresponsible behaviour should not be encouraged. With the examination of a Hungarian sample, it can be concluded that in the context of higher education, signs of rational investment behaviour can be found. The risks of post-secondary studies are not yet fully understood and measured, and for this reason further research is suggested.
This paper studies the sensitivity of share prices of Spanish companies included in the IBEX-35 to changes in different explanatory variables, such as market returns, interest rates and factors proposed by Fama and French (1993, 2015) between 2000 and 2016. In addition, for robustness, this paper analyses whether the sensitivity of stock returns is different between two periods: precrisis and recent financial crisis. The results confirm that, in general, all the considered factors are relevant. Furthermore, “market return” and “size” factors show greater explanatory power, together with the “value” factor in the crisis period. Regarding the analysis at sector level, “Oil and Energy”, “Basic Materials, Industry and Construction” and “Financial and Real Estate Services” sectors appear to be highly sensitive to changes in the risk factors included in the asset pricing factor model.
Abstract
Rating the reliability of banks has always been an important practical problem for businesses and the economic policy makers. The best way to do this is the CAMEL analysis. The aim of this paper was to create a bank-rating indicator from the five fields of the CAMEL analysis using two-two indicators for each field for the Turkish Islamic banking system. According to the results of the analysis, we could rank the Turkish Islamic banks. Beside the widespread use of the CAMEL analysis, we applied the Similarity Analysis as a new method. We compared the results from the two methods and came to the conclusion that the CAMEL analysis does not adequately provide a fairly shaded picture about the banks. The Component-based Object Comparison for Objectivity (COCO) method gave us the yearly results in time series form. The comparison of the time series data leads to the problem of deciding about what is more important for us – average, standard deviation or the slope. For handling this problem, we used Analytic Hierarchy Process, which gave weights to these indicators.
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to analyse the impact of pension funds on capital market development in 11 new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe using annual data for the period between 2000 and 2019. Given the geographical, institutional, political and economic differences across these countries, we split them into three homogenous groups: Balkan, Baltic and Visegrad countries. We use three different variables as a proxy for capital markets growth: stock market capitalization, the value of stock traded, and private bond market capitalization. We apply dynamic and fully-modified ordinary least squares to examine the relationship between the variables. The empirical results indicate that pension funds have a positive effect on the bond markets growth in all sub-groups but they do not impact the stock market growth in the Balkan and Baltic countries.
This investigation is one of the first to adopt quantile regression (QR) technique to examine covariance risk dynamics in international stock markets. Feasibility of the proposed model is demonstrated in G7 stock markets. Additionally, two conventional random-coefficient frameworks, including time-varying betas derived from GARCH models and state-varying betas implied by Markov-switching models, are employed and subjected to comparative analysis. The empirical findings of this work are consistent with the following notions. First, the beta smile (beta skew) curve for the Italian, U.S. and U.K. (Canadian, French and German) markets. That is, covariance risk among global stock markets in extremely bull and/or bear market states is significantly higher than in stable periods. Additionally, the Japanese market provides a special case, and its beta estimate at extremely bust state is significantly lower, not higher than that at the middle region. Second, the quantile-varying betas are identified as possessing two key advantages. Specifically, the comparison of the system with quantile-varying betas against that with time-varying betas implied by GARCH models provides meaningful implications for correlation-volatility relationship among international stock markets. Furthermore, the quantile-varying beta design in this study relaxes a simple dual beta setting implied by Markov-switching models of Ramchand — Susmel (1998) and can identify dynamics of asymmetry in betas.
This paper studies the global, regional, and country-specific components of four key financial market indicators: sovereign CDS spreads, equity indices, exchange rates, and EMBI Global bond spreads. In all four markets, the results support the findings of the literature of a significant global component, but also point out the importance of regional correlations. Variance decompositions point to roughly a third of variance explained by both global and country-specific components in each of the four analysed financial markets, although there is considerable cross-country heterogeneity in this respect. The global factors of indicators are correlated across asset classes, but the market- and country-specific components of indicators are still significantly large to suggest diversification benefits of both multi-asset and multi-country portfolios. An application of the factor model suggests that the link between Central Eastern European and Euro zone periphery markets is stronger and more direct in the case of equity indices than in the case of sovereign CDS spreads.
