A jelenlegi gazdasági világválság kitörésekor a szakértők felismerték, hogy ennek méretei, veszélyei túlnőttek a ciklikusan bekövetkező recessziókon. Természetes képzettársításként a nyolcvan év előtti Nagy Válsággal vetették össze. E krízis volt – békeidőben – az emberiséget sújtó legnagyobb gazdasági katasztrófa. A válságkezelés eredményes módjait keresve adódott F. D. Roosevelt amerikai elnök sikeres megoldásokat alkalmazó New Deal-jének példája. (Ezért merült fel a jelenlegi válság kezelésére egy új, a mai korszaknak megfelelő New Deal gondolata.) A negatívumok is tanulságosak: az akkori amerikai „elszigetelődési politika” lett a Nagy Válság elhúzódásának egyik fő oka. A második világháború vége felé F. D. Roosevelt kezdeményezte a nemzetközi pénzügyi rendszer szabályozását: az egyezmény létrejött, 1944-ben Bretton Woodsban fogadták el. (Akkor született a Világbank és az IMF.) Most is a javaslatok közt szerepel egy, a mai feltételekhez idomult, hasonló megállapodás létrehozása.A szerző törekvése, hogy történelemszociológiai módszerekkel elemezze az 1929 utáni és a mai válság azonosságait és különbségeit, jobb eligazodásunk érdekében. Az elemzést a
2010/1. számában folytatja.
Authors:Pelin Varol Iyidoğan, Başak Dalgiç, and Hale Akbulut
It is suggested that international trade has a positive effect on the growth rate of economies. Although a vast literature has illustrated that open or more liberalised economies grow faster, the specific factors that promote this process have only recently begun to be investigated. We belive that there is a non-linear relationship between trade and growth, with the impact depending on a number of macroeconomic factors, i.e. the magnitude and even the direction of the effect of trade on economic performance might depend on other macroeconomic variables. Within this framework, our study aims to investigate the possible non-linearity in the trade-growth relationship, with a special focus on the financial deepening level for the selected Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. Unlike the existing empirical literature on trade-growth nexus for the CEE economies, we utilise threshold regression techniques, where we allow the size and direction of the impact of trade on growth to differ between regimes, conditioning on the financial deepening level of these countries. Regarding credit growth and investment/credit ratio as thresholds, the countries in the upper regime benefit significantly more from trade.
During the present financial crisis, the focus of the regulation and supervision of financial institutions has shifted from being institution-based (microprudential) towards the systemic level (macroprudential). A special element of the macroprudential regulatory and supervisory toolkit is the issue of macroprudential warnings. Prior to the crisis, both the international and the domestic authorities issued warnings concerning the emergence of system-wide risks in the financial sector. However, these warnings did not result in significant changes in the behaviour of the banks, which were the main addressees of the warnings. The article analyses the practice and effectiveness of macroprudential warnings in relation to the European Central Bank and the competent Hungarian authorities. The subject matter is particularly topical, taking into account that one of the very first steps in changing the institutional framework of financial supervision, as a response to the financial crisis, has been the establishment of an institutional framework for issuing macroprudential warnings.
Looking back to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, Hungary was among the first countries to be forced to make use of financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. The government, the MNB (the central bank of Hungary) as well as the domestic and foreign analysts cited the high public debt and the volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the crises. Though these were real weaknesses, this diagnosis was false as much as the following treatment. First and foremost, it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary to request outside financial assistance.
The excessive fiscal tightening urged by the MNB only led to deepening of the crises. In general, the macropolicy – both fiscal and monetary policy – before, during and after the crises turned out to be painfully pro-cyclical. Due to the lack of sufficient reserves, the MNB became virtually powerless to intervene and could only watch from the side-lines as events unfolded. The orthodox mind-set after replenishing the forex reserves prevented it from implementing a broad scale of unconventional measures to ease the crises. The fiscal authority lost its capacity long before to reduce the severity of the crises. Thus, the excessive and incorrect structure of fiscal correction coupled with an unjustified orthodox monetary policy, the contraction of the Hungarian economy went much beyond the inevitable amount.
Measuring the financial efficiencies of mutual funds in emerging markets has played an important role in finance literature. Charnes et al. (1978) advocated Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a valuable mathematical programming technique, which is used to measure the technical, pure and scale efficiencies of decision making units. The general form of DEA is the CCR model that depends on the assumption of constant returns to scale. Subsequently, Banker et al. (1984) developed an alternative DEA model which includes a variable returns to scale approach. The aim of this study is to measure and compare the financial efficiencies of Turkish securities and pension funds in the 2006–2007 period. In this respect, 36 securities mutual funds (SMFs) and 41 pension mutual funds (PMFs) have been evaluated comparatively according to classical portfolio performance measures and DEA models. Results from performance indices and DEA models reveal that PMFs have higher portfolio performances and financial efficiencies than SMFs in the 2006–2007 period. However, SMFs and PMFs have shown considerable increases in efficiency in the 2006–2007 period according to CCR and BCC models. Of the 77 funds studied, 23 funds in 2007 and 20 funds in 2006 demonstrated scale efficiency. Furthermore, the input ratios should be considerably improved for 2006 and 2007. But, mostly the output values of the funds were found to have remained unchanged in the case of PMFs and SMFs in 2007. The output ratios for 2006 should be considerably improved, especially in the case of SMFs. Finally, the DEA method is evaluated as a substantial quantitative tool for investors in analysing the financial efficiencies of funds in the capital markets.
A tanulmány bemutatja a globalizációs folyamat új szakaszát, amelyben a tőkés rendszer korszakváltása végbement. A szerző elemzi azokat a tényezőket, melyek hatására ez az átalakulás történt: a technikai alapjától a high-tech ipar megszületésén át, a főszereplőkig: a transznacionális vállalatokig. Ezek inspirálták az „árnyékbankok” megszerveződését. (Ez az intézményforma valósította meg – az internet segítségével – a spekulációs tőke követhetetlenül felgyorsult mozgását a világtőzsdék között.) A dolgozat taglalja a centrum–periféria kapcsolatok átalakulását az új feltételrendszerben. Végül azt vizsgálja, hogy a világgazdasági válság következtében milyen nehézségekre kell megoldást keresnie a G/20-hatalmak „alkalmi” intézményének.
Authors:S. Kumar, M. Sivaiah, K. Venkatesan, R. Krishna, G. Murthy, and P. Sasidhar
A composite mixture of zirconium molybdate and zirconium tungstate was prepared and studied for the sorption of cesium and strontium as a function of nitric acid, metal ion concentration, time and temperature. The distribution coefficient (Kd) of 7000 ml/g (~90% sorption) and 70 ml/g (~20% sorption) was obtained for the sorption of cesium and strontium in 0.1M nitric acid, respectively. Experimental sorption capacity, b for cesium was found to be 50 mg/g from 0.1M HNO3 and 30 mg/g for strontium from 0.001M nitric acid. The sorption of strontium on the sorbent was accompanied by the absorption of heat but the sorption of Cs+ results in the liberation of heat. Column studies were conducted by following a breakthrough (BT) curve of cesium and strontium up to C/C0=1 and the results are reported.
Authors:Robson Miranda da Gama, Tatiana Santana Balogh, Simone França, Tânia Cristina Sá Dias, Valcinir Bedin, André Rolim Baby, Jivaldo do Rosário Matos, and Maria Valéria Robles Velasco
This research aimed the effect on Caucasian hair tresses treated with oxidative hair dye, either incorporated or not with conditioners agents, analyzed by Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Thermogravimetric analysis (TG). The formulations of hair dyes were emulsions oil-in-water with light blond color containing or not the conditioners agents: silanetriol and panthenol; PEG-12 dimethicone; hydrolyzed silk, hydrolyzed milk protein, and lactose. Each dye (1.5 g) was applied in the hair tress (2.0 g/20.0 cm of length of Caucasian light-brown), previously treated, more 1.5 g of hydrogen peroxide 20 vol during 40 min. Evaluation of mass loss of the different hair sample demonstrates that these chemical hair treatments impair the hair fibers, reduced their moisture content with respect to the untreated hair. The incorporation of conditioners agents (silanetriol and panthenol; PEG-12 dimethicone; hydrolyzed silk, hydrolyzed milk protein, and lactose) in oxidative hair dyes types did not decrease the damage caused on the tresses by the coloring process quantified by TG/DTG. However, the DSC curves demonstrated those conditioners agents (silanetriol and panthenol; PEG-12 dimethicone) dislocated the beginning of the third event in 20 °C and they inhibited the presence of the fourth event, having characterized thermal protection to the hair.
Authors:Haiqun Cao, Yongde Yue, Rimao Hua, Feng Tang, Rong Zhang, Wei Fan, Haiyan Chen, and Yong Hua
A simple, rapid, and sensitive high-performance thin-layer chromatographic method has been developed and validated for analysis of residues of imidacloprid, fenitrothion, and parathion in Chinese cabbage. The sample was extracted by sonication in an ultrasonic water bath with acetone-petroleum ether, 5:3 (
), and the extract was directly applied, as bands, to glass-backed silica gel 60F
HPTLC plates. The plates were developed with hexane-acetone, 7 + 3 (
), in an unsaturated glass twin-trough Camag chamber. Evaluation of the developed HPTLC plates was performed densitometrically with a Camag TLC Scanner 3 controlled by an external PC running Wincats software (Version 1.1.2). The results indicated that the detection limits of imidacloprid (
= 0.10), fenitrothion (
= 0.59), and parathion (
= 0.70) were 5.0 × 10
g, 2.0 × 10
g, 1.0 × 10
g, respectively. Recoveries of the pesticides from Chinese cabbage by use of this analytical method were 80.04–85.22%, and
were 4.18–13.15%. The precision and accuracy of the method were generally fit for analysis of pesticide residues in Chinese cabbage.