A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003. The model fitted to the data of the period 1949–2003 forecasts increasing mortality rates for men between ages 45 and 55, pointing out that the Lee-Carter method is hardly applicable for countries where mortality rates exhibit trends as peculiar as in Hungary. However, models fitted to the data for the last 15 years both for men and women forecast decreasing trends similarly to the case of countries where the method was successfully applied. Hence one gets a better fit in this way, however, further concerns suggest that the Lee-Carter model, which is celebrated and widely used in actuarial practice, does not necessarily give sufficiently good prediction.
Authors:András Olivér Németh, Petra Németh and Péter Vékás
The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.
We wish to introduce the concept of the five-factor model of employee commitment while proving that in addition to the factors of the three dimensional model of organisational commitment (affective, normative, and continuance), relevant organisational behaviour and attitude to work are also influenced by professional commitment and the so-called deliberate commitment; these appear mostly as a consequence of the crisis that is also a drawn-out phenomenon in Hungary. Our other aim is to define commitment profiles for some specific employee groups (the previously unemployed, Generation Y individuals in their first jobs, and teleworkers) once their members have been characterised, using the five commitment factors. The resulting commitment profiles are then compared to the commitment profile of the reference group. The results of this empiric research are based on the commitment attitude of 661 Hungarian employees.
A number of megatrends are hitting the world of work at the same time. These include the digital revolution, globalisation and rapid population ageing, which are all having a profound impact on the types of jobs that are being created and how and where they are performed. This paper examines the challenges confronting the Visegrad Group of countries and the broad policy responses that will be required. It looks at the risk of job automation, how the structure of employment is changing by skill level and the rise of the gig economy. These changes will require a combination of policy responses in the areas of employment regulation, measures to facilitate labour mobility and lifelong learning, social protection and social dialogue. In many cases, this will not require a complete paradigm shift in policies but an adaptation and strengthening of existing polices.
Authors:X. Wu, H. Cárcamo, B. Beres, F. Clarke, R. DePauw and B. Pang
Host plant resistance in the form of wheat with the stem lumen filled with pith has been the main strategy to manage the wheat stem sawfly, Cephus cinctus Norton (Hymenoptera: Cephidae) - a major pest of wheat in the northern Great Plains of North America. Recently a new source of resistance has been made available combining a single dominant solid pith gene from durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) with spring bread wheat cultivars. Our study had two objectives: (i) assess levels of C. cinctus damage and larval C. cinctus mortality in wheat with the novel solid germplasm, conventional solid-stems and susceptible cultivars; and (ii) determine plant genotype effects on populations of C. cinctus parasitoid Bracon cephi (Gahan) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). The study was conducted in plots near Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada from 2003–2005. The novel solid-stemmed hexaploid G9608B1-L12J11BF02, solid-stemmed AC Eatonia and hollow-stemmed durum AC Navigator reduced the infestation level and girdling damage by C. cinctus. Another synthetic hexaploid B9973B03&AC4AW, hollow-stemmed AC Cadillac, McKenzie and AC Barrie were more susceptible to C. cinctus damage. Larval parasitism by B. cephi increased along with C. cinctus infestation levels. Stem solidness itself, regardless of source, had no direct negative effect on B. cephi but due to lower infestation and survival of C. cinctus in solid stem genotypes, the overall population of parasitoids was reduced. When planting monocultures of effective solid stem wheat, strategies to conserve populations of parasitoids should be considered for long term sustainable management of C. cinctus.
Authors:Asli Tanindi, Ruya Mutluay and Yusuf Tavil
1984 Calcified atrial thrombus: Complication of Central Venous Hyperalimentation Texas Heart Inst. J. 11 1 76 – 79 .
. D. H. Kim S. I. Choi J. Choi 2006 Various Findings of Cardiac Thrombi on MDCT and MRI J Comput. Asist