I investigated the effects of adolescents' attitudes toward risk on their choice of employment sector in adulthood. I employed a joint model of employment sector choice and three-dimensional background characteristics to demonstrate that employment preference is an inverse function of the degree of relative risk aversion. Empirical data was obtained from longitudinal data, and a logit model was applied to estimate the effects of the three-dimensional background characteristics on the risk-taking attitudes and employment choices. I observed that individuals with a higher tendency to engage in risky experiences exhibit low risk aversion, and thus, tend to choose a riskier employment sector.
The aim of this paper is to analyse determinants which cause some young Romanian and Hungarian individuals to have longer unemployment spells than others and different exit destinations. The empirical analysis is based on two large micro-datasets, obtained from the National Agency of Employment Romania and the Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Based on the competing risks specification, conclusions and suggestions for policy-makers are formulated.
Authors:Nádia Simões, Nuno Crespo and José Castro Pinto
Based on a micro-level approach and using data from the European Working Conditions Survey, covering 27 countries, we analyse the determinants of job quality. With cluster analysis applied to 11 dimensional indices, we form three homogeneous country groups and identify, by estimating twice-censored Tobit models, the main determinant factors affecting the individual level of job quality in each group. We verify the relevance of variables related to worker characteristics, firm characteristics, and the country in which the individual works. Among worker characteristics, education and employment status are the factors with the highest impact on job quality, while the economic sector is the most important firm characteristic. The results suggest the existence of important differences among groups regarding the magnitude of the impact of some factors. The highest dissimilarities are found between the group with better jobs (Nordic countries plus Belgium) and the group with lower quality jobs (Central and Eastern European countries plus Portugal and Greece). Variables related to age, education, dimension of the firm, and economic sector are those in which more heterogeneity is found among the groups.
The paper investigates how the increased use of temporary contracts in Poland affected employment elasticity with respect to output. The analysis is based on Okun's law, and covers the period of 1996–2016, with particular focus on the years of 2001–2016 when temporary jobs became prevalent. We look at the relationships between output growth and the growths of aggregate, permanent and temporary employment separately. Our study finds that the responsiveness of aggregate employment to output is positive and changes through time. Interestingly, after 2007, when the use of temporary contracts stabilised at a high level, the employment intensity of growth started decreasing. We relate this to the opposite trends in output responsiveness of temporary and permanent jobs. Elasticity of temporary job was growing, while elasticity of permanent job was decreasing. Our study also shows that initially employers adapt to output changes replacing permanent job with temporary job, next temporary contracts become the main adjustment device.
The expected future impact of the fourth industrial revolution is a hotly debated issue in the literature. The majority of papers focus on quantifying the expected impacts on labour demand, or on a specific country, or on huge macro-regions – and the estimates differ widely. Our paper focuses on the impact assessment of Industry 4.0 on the expected structure of employment, wages and inequalities in Hungary. We built a static microsimulation model for our analysis, where the “EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions Hungary 2017” dataset was used as a starting point. Projections by the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) were used for policy simulations on future employment by sector and by occupational group for each European Union (EU) member state. The analysis also elaborates our own augmented vision about the expected labour demand changes and expected wage trends. Based on this information, the spill-over effects were calculated regarding wage structure and inequalities by sector, region and the highest educational attainment.
Authors:András Olivér Németh, Petra Németh and Péter Vékás
The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.
Work culture is an integrative component of the transformation process. At first sight, Hungarian work culture appears globalized, but many of the globalized or “westernized” characteristics remain superficial. The lack of a deeply-rooted democratic culture can easily be traced at the workplace. The entrance of multinational companies in Hungary has provided opportunities and challenges to the Hungarian workforce, including the model of the “globally integrated enterprise”. While multinational enterprises become more integrated and efficient on the global level, their local social and economic contexts disintegrate. If new forms of cooperation and partnership will emerge, a new work culture in Hungary could increase in momentum and flourish. Identifying critical junctures in work culture has underscored the need for new partnerships among employees and employers who together can positively change the economic landscape and prospects for the future. This study is based on empirical research by using the methodology of value sociology and value surveys. Its major conclusion is that reinventing Hungarian work culture might be a difficult and complex process but nevertheless it is possible and also inevitable.
A number of megatrends are hitting the world of work at the same time. These include the digital revolution, globalisation and rapid population ageing, which are all having a profound impact on the types of jobs that are being created and how and where they are performed. This paper examines the challenges confronting the Visegrad Group of countries and the broad policy responses that will be required. It looks at the risk of job automation, how the structure of employment is changing by skill level and the rise of the gig economy. These changes will require a combination of policy responses in the areas of employment regulation, measures to facilitate labour mobility and lifelong learning, social protection and social dialogue. In many cases, this will not require a complete paradigm shift in policies but an adaptation and strengthening of existing polices.
Ever since Goldin (1995) proposed the idea that there is a U-shaped female labor force participation rate function in economic development, empirical research is stunned by the question why the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are characterized by such low rates of female labor force participation. This gap in labor economics research is all the more perplexing since gender equality, particularly in education and employment, significantly contributes to economic growth. The research strategy of this paper is within a relatively new tradition in labor market research, initiated by Besamusca et al. (2015), which does not exclude the “religious factor” and what the authors call “gender ideology”. Our analysis of the “gender ideology” of Islamism and gender values is based on an empirical analysis of World Values Survey data. In recent economic theory, Carvalho (2013) maintained that Muslim veiling is a strategy for integration, enabling women to take up outside economic opportunities while preserving their reputation within the community. The empirical data clearly support a pessimistic view. We show that Muslim Feminism, which according to our analysis implies the rejection of Islamism and the veil, and the democracy movement in the Muslim world, are closely interrelated. Thus, it is imperative that Western Feminism develops solidarity with Muslim Feminism, and that labor economics stop excluding the religious factor from the analytical frameworks explaining low female labor force participation rates.